All Posts Tagged With: "John McCain"
Poll Gazing
You’ve gotta check out this comprehensive post by Chris at the Outside Report.
Chris is one of my favorite bloggers, and in this post he lays out a state by state comparison of the 2004 results and the current polling data. Take a look. Then add the Outside Report to your rss readers, favorites lists, and blogrolls.
Will Hillary Voters Stay Home?
CNN is citing a new poll that shows only 54 percent of Clinton voters plan to vote for Obama, down from 60 percent in a previous poll. They claim this is a sign many intend to stay home. My initial reaction: not a big deal, close proximity to the margin of error, and there’s a lot of time.
I kept reading, “In early June, 22 percent of Clinton supporters polled said they would not vote at all if Obama were the party’s nominee, now close to a third say they will stay home.” This is getting a little more troubling.
Back in March I wrote the following about the ability of both Obama and Clinton to court their opponents backers:
“The core of Hillary Clinton’s base is older women who have voted in every election for twenty years. They will show up to vote. And they will vote Democrat.Senator Obama locks down voters who are anything but reliable. He pulls in first time voters. It’s easy for them to continue not voting. He inspires Independents and moderate Republicans who would never vote for Hillary. And he’s a walking turnout machine for African Americans.”
Her voters will come around. We have the love fest that will be the Democratic Convention, and then McCain’s profile will be raised enough that Hillary supporters will be inclined to have a preference, and as always, they will make it to the polls.
Perhaps its a Fourth of July idealism, but this election feels different. It’s a bigger change, the first without an incumbent President or VP since 1952. It’ll be the first without a Bush or a Clinton on the ballot in my lifetime. (Hillary being the VP looks increasingly unlikely). With two wars and the economy in shambles, people will want to stand up and be counted.
McCain has transformed himself from being a maverick to a candidate largely striving to be conventional. It feels like he’s running a campaign for 2000 or 2004, not 2008. He hasn’t articulated what he’s for and, whats worse, he seems to be losing sight of who he is. Also, he seems stale. His picking Lieberman would be a powerful statement about his bipartisanship–McCain could have is own “first”. Keep in mind, in 200McCain was interested in running as Kerry’s VP, in large part because he was still pissed at Bush about 2000 (vindictiveness isn’t a good quality in a President). McCain likely thinks Kerry would have won had he picked him, this element plus his self-definition as a maverick, and his friendship with Lieberman might make him defy the odds-makers and name Lieberman as his VP. The John McCain of 2000 might have been this bold, but I don’t see the same courage in the very different animal that is the John McCain of 2008.
Assuming McCain makes a conventional pick, perhaps a Romney a Rudy or a Fred, Hillary’s women will run to Obama. If he picks the right female VP, or Lieberman, perhaps he can pull an appreciable amount of Hillary supporters. Otherwise, they will go to Obama, it’s only a question of when.
Why McCain Will Win
by Chris of The Outside Report
Note: Chris is one of my favorite political bloggers and he has become a good friend in the past few months. I often link to his posts, and I’ve invited him to blog with us or at least cross post when we finish the Urbanagora redesign. Chris will soon be posting on why Obama will win the Presidential election in November. He hasn’t yet decided which one he thinks is the more valid argument
So who will win the Presidency in 2008? Though the polls and history are against him, the Phoenix will rise again and John McCain will be our 44th President. Why or how you ask? Ultimately, Barack Obama is just too liberal to win. The vast majority of Americans see Obama has a liberal, whereas most Americans perceive McCain to be a centrist. The United States is a right-of-center country and has never elected someone as liberal as Obama.
Even on issues that anger Americans such as Iraq, Americans may want to overwhelmingly leave, but they want to leave with a victory and not under chaos. Obama is perceived to be the candidate for withdrawal at all cost. As casualties continue to decline and stability comes to Iraq, Obama will have to answer why he chose political expedency instead of trying to work out a bipartisan solution to Iraq.
Second, culturally, Obama can be so elitist at times that he simply cannot appeal to working class whites in Ohio and Pennsylvania, the very people he will need to win. What about all those polls that show Obama well-ahead in Ohio and Pennslyvania? Its June and Kerry was ahead of Bush in Ohio two weeks before the election by 5% and we all know how that turned out. Undecideds will go with the “safe” pick and the vast majority of Americans see McCain as a safe pick.
Third, Obama has demonstrated no track record of being a change agent. The only change Obama represents is that of being an African-American, but Americans are going to want more change than changing the color of our President. McCain is the one that took on his own party on immigration, campaign finance reform, the Gang of 14, and even on gay marriage. The message to Americans is clear: If McCain is willing to stand up to his own party for what he believes is right then he’ll stand up for us.
In contrast, what has Obama stood for that is against his Party? McCain has demonstrated that he’s a bipartisan reformer and will have an ample record to point to whereas Obama in his brief years in the Senate seems like a typical Washington liberal.
Even looking at the electoral map, we see the strength McCain has in Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado. McCain starts off with Bush’s ‘04 map. While it is true that Obama is polling better than Kerry in some red states, McCain is polling better than Bush in Massachusetts, California, New York, Connecticut, and several blue states. Whereas the rest of his party loses by double digits, McCain’s popularity has endured the Republican brand decline. America looks poised to return the Democrats to Congress and they’ll want to make sure that the Democrats have a check against abuse and that check is McCain. McCain already is likely to win Florida and Texas and Obama will have to compete hard to win Virginia and Colorado (neither of which are not guarantees).
What about all Obama’s money? First, Obama doesn’t have all that much more money than McCain. They are at financial parity at the moment and Obama likely will not raise all that much more money than McCain will. Remember that this is still the “primary” season so both candidates can still raise funds. In the end it is true that Obama and the Democrats will likely outraise and outspend the Republicans, but to what end? Obama outspent Clinton 3 to 1 in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other places and Obama didn’t win any of those places. How will Obama compete against McCain’s $85 million in September when it matters?
Obama will lead in the polls but will will lose the only polls that matter. Once Americans see him standing toe-to-toe with John McCain in debates in October, the sheer cocky inexperience that represents Obama will shine. Obama will be caught flat footed as McCain throws out lines such as “I led for patriotism not for profit.” McCain will show his vast knowledge of world affairs while Obama will stutter and mumble his way to defeat.
McCain’s debate performances were consistent (and fairly good) whereas Obama’s debate performances were all over the place. Some debates he’d do good, but others he seemed like a deer caught in headlights. When it mattered though, Obama has never been able to close the deal. He beat Hillary by default, but he won’t have caucuses, and individual state voting to rely on to win him the Presidency like it won him the Primary. McCain will be our President.
Meandering Thoughts on Patriotism
Today Senator Obama released his first general election campaign commercial, which is focused largely on his personal narrative and themes of pride in family and country. The ad is running nationwide, including our most conservative states. Although I was once a spirited critic of the 50 state strategy, I think the Dean plan is working. We’re forcing the GOP to spend money defensively when they’ll have a harder time raising it than we will.
It’s easy to forget how dynamic our states really are in presidential elections. Think blue is always blue or red is always red? Do a little exploring in the pre-1992 races at 270 to Win.
Obama’s embrace of the 50 state strategy should benefit many red-to-blue House races, and facilitate up to 6 pickups in the Senate. More than that, he’s challenging him to be the candidate most associated with patriotism. The best defense is a ferocious offense.
Despite the strength of McCain’s personal story and his service, Obama can win a battle talking about Patriotism because he is a much more effective communicator, and frankly, because of the stunningly brilliant David Axelrod’s superior packaging of his message.
Michelle also seems to be winning her own patriotism battle, but several remain in her war. She reportedly did well on The View (if I watched it, I wouldn’t tell you savage critics), and she’s shown disarming humility and grace. I was surprised Laura Bush spoke out for Michelle Obama, a move the notoriously vindictive Cindy McCain likely didn’t take very well. There are rumors of bad blood between Laura Bush and Cindy McCain, which makes sense given the brutality of Bush v. McCain in 2000. Today Cindy McCain flew off to Vietnam to do charity work for her organization that helps children with deformities smile. Can anyone think of a first lady’s charity that is better politics then helping little deformed children smile? (Note: I’m trying to be less vindictive, negative and reactionary, which is why I wont speculate on how many children have been deformed by fetal alcohol syndrome or drunk driving wrecks facilitated by her beer distributorship)
Finally, speaking of patriotism, this is the most patriotic goddamn thing I’ve ever seen:
McCain Debates Himself
Here’s a great video that my buddy Todd directed me to. It’s another example of McCain running into himself.
Obama and McCain Tax Plans
Recently CNN ran an article on the McCain and Obama tax plans. The article relies on data from The Tax Policy Center, where you can find more in depth analysis on these plans. Our blog has many fans of simple charts, and the chart associated with the article was particularly helpful, and is reproduced below.
| BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Here’s how the average tax bill could change in 2009 if either John McCain’s or Barack Obama’s tax proposals were fully in place. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Source:The Tax Policy Center
I don’t find any data on McCain’s plan very relevant because his plan is a political impossibility with a Democratic Congress. He might as well say he’s eliminating taxes and the IRS, and giving every American eleventy bajillion dollars. Any plan of McCain’s is at once a fairytale.
This chart refutes the myth that Obama intends to dramatically raise taxes on middle class Americans. Yes, if you make more than 600K, your taxes will go up dramatically. It’s more important to look at the bottom end of Obama’s chart. Anyone making under 112K will pay less in taxes under President Obama. If only everyone would vote with their pocketbook!
John Cusack Ad: Bush-McCain Challenge
h/t to Grumblebear
Create a Study Part II: The "Flip-Flop Index"
A few months back I wrote a post arguing that the Obama campaign should approach think tanks, academics, and other interest groups to quietly urge these groups to create studies ranking members of the Senate from most liberal to most conservative using methodologies that would land Obama in the middle of the pack. The goal is to rebut the National Journal “study” which proclaimed Obama to be the most liberal member of the Senate. Now that we’re in general election mode, this effort would have paid off, more and more we will hear one shoddy study quoted which found Obama to be the most liberal Senator.
Today I’d like to discus the creation of another kind of study, “The Flip-Flop Index.” The Flip-Flop Index would take multiple issue areas, say 15-20, and measure how many positions in each area different members of the Senate have flip-flopped on. McCain has changed numerous positions on issues, including gay rights, ethanol, abortion, immigration, Iran, the mortgage crisis, the confederate flag, creating MLK Jr. Day, wire-tapping, the Bush tax-cuts, balancing the budget, and astonishingly, torture. I hope my progressive comrades will fill in more flips and flops in the comments, I know I’m missing several.
The result of this study would very likely show McCain to have the highest rate of Flip-Flop Index of any active Senator and highlight his recent pandering to the right to shore up his base. Such a study would shred what’s left of McCain’s “maverick” message. Unlike the John McCain of 2000, the John McCain of 2008 is eager to sacrifice principle for politics.
McCain sells out
One significant hypocrisy, which remains under reported, is McCain’s departure from his maverick championing of campaign finance reform. The following is from an ABC report explaining the loophole his campaign worked to create to allow individuals to dramatically exceed the individual donation limit:
“Under a new fundraising structure created by the campaign and the Republican National Committee, a donor can give up to $70,000 to the “McCain Victory 2008,” significantly more than the $2,300 individual donor limit set by campaign finance laws. If a donor gives the maximum amount the money is split into multiple funds that all benefit McCain’s campaign: the first $2,300 of that money goes to the McCain campaign itself, the next $28,000 goes to the RNC, and the rest is divided among four swing states the campaign plans to target in the general election. Those targeted states are: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico.”
McCain’s Anthem: Proud to be an American
If I were running McCain’s campaign, the classic song “Proud to Be an American” would play him on to stage at the Republican Convention and then be a common theme song/ anthem for rest of the campaign. There is something particularly stirring about the image of McCain with these lyrics:
“And I gladly stand up next to you and defend her still today. ‘ Cause there ain’t no doubt I love this land, God bless the USA.“
This taps into most of the key values that should be weaved together for a winning McCain narrative: nostalgia, patriotism, self sacrifice, honor, experience, toughness, and valor. It also resonates with blue collar voters. It was played heavily following 9-11, and the strong emotional connection some feel to it would subtly reinforce McCain’s attempts to focus the debate on national security. Most importantly, whether or not it should, extensive use of this song will make Obama’s criticisms of the war a little less effective with some undecided voters.