Game 1: Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24 ERA) vs. Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96 ERA)

Derek Lowe has a 4.42 ERA on the Road, and opposing batting averages is .251 vs. lefties and .240 against righties. So look for Fukudome and Edmonds to start, especially with DeRosa having a sore leg. Lowe has 45 BB to 147 SO, so it looks like he will tend to throw a lot of pitches. This is a guy who can be worked to knock him out of the game early to get to the Dodger bullpen, and set up the next game.

Ryan Dempster has defended his house. .243 against lefties, .213 against righties. The Dodgers have have decent lefties in Eithier and Loney. Dempster has a 2.86 at home, so he is pretty consistent. Uncle Lou is putting up his best home pitcher to start the series so look for them to start strong.

Game 2: Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14) vs. Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91)

Another righty, Billingsley has a .274 opp ba against lefties (.225 against righties), so maybe we’ll see some pinch hitting by Fontenot. He is 3.33 on the road with 58 walks from 59 strikeouts. Cubs can generate some walks against this guy. Patience is going to be a virtue, with Edmonds and Fukudome probably playing again due to their lefty bats.

Zambrano is Zambrano. A 3.77 ERA at home (3.18 ERA at night), this is a great place for him to pitch. We hope that the playoffs and the emotion of Wrigley will allow him to be in control as opposed to him getting freaked out. The person who will be the most responsible for keeping Zambrano in line is Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, who has been handling this pitching staff well all summer. If he can keep Zambrano dialed in, look out.

Game 3: Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.84 ERA) vs. Dick Harden (10-2, 2.07)

Hiroki Kuroda is the weak link of their three man rotation based on the numbers. Another righty, look for the Edmonds and Fukudome to play again. ERA at home is 3.68 with opp BA is .264 for lefties, .250 for righties. 42 BB, 113 SO, should throw a lot of pitches, another opportunity to get to the bulllpen early. However, after Kuroda allowed just two hits over five scoreless innings today, that makes eleven straight starts in which he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs. Over those eleven starts his ERA is just 2.58, and he’s LA’s third starter at best. How many teams would kill for a first starter with those numbers? Granted, those starts were against Pittsburg, San Diego, and San Francisco, who were hardly offensive juggernauts, so we’ll see.

Dick Harden is the man. 2.50 ERA on the road, with a .198/.168 for opp BA, lefty/righty. His issue is throwing a lot of pitches and getting rest between games. Don’t anticipate that being an issue this game or going forward, given how much rest he will get due to the four man rotation and the days off for travel between games.

Game 4. Lowe vs. Charles Manson I mean Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09 ERA)

Lowe is much better at home, with a 2.50 ERA. Still a righty.

Ted Lilly eats babies. And then he comes to the ballpark. His 4.09 reflects a slow start; he is 3.52 in the last 10 starts. He pitches better on the road (3.77 ERA vs. 4.50). He devours righties with a .219 right opp BA, vs. a .309 against lefties, so Ethier and Loney will have to be treated with care.

PITCHING STAFF ANALYSIS FOR DODGERS: The big news is that Kuo, one of their better relievers, will be out for the series, which is nice. The most likely remaining eight are Takashi Saito (2.49), Jonathan Broxton (3.13), Joe Beimel (2.03), Cory Wade (2.15), Chan Ho Park (3.23), Scott Proctor (6.05), Greg Maddux (4.22) and Clayton Kershaw (4.30). Their lead guys are pretty scary, but if we get to the bullpen early, we might be able to rope a dope these guys. Also, the Dodgers played the majority of their games against a few of worst producing teams in the majors, so those numbers might be a little deceiving.

PITCHING STAFF ANALYSIS FOR CUBS: Obviously the hub of this staff is Wood (3.26) and Marmol (2.68). If our starters can go 7 innings, we feel comfortable. After Wood and Marmol, we got lefty Marshall (3.86), lefty Cotts (4.29), Wuertz (3.63), Samardijia (our preferred 7th inning guy probably at 2.28), Marquis (4.53), and either Howry (5+) or Gaudin (4.40). So I would like to think overall we would have the advantage on paper pitching wise, but who knows.

COMPARATIVE OFFENSES We scored 855 runs to their 700 runs. So one would think that we are the more productive team, but Manny does change the complexion of the team. They have been scoring around 5-7 runs per game, against relatively decent pitching. So there is that.

INJURIES: As I mentioned, Kuo is out, which is a big deal. Soto and DeRosa haven’t played recently but Uncle Lou has explicitly stated that Soto’s injury is not that bad, and DeRosa’s probably isn’t, but they are just playing it safe. Either way, I think the Cubs, due to them clinching early, will be going into the playoffs as healthy as they can possibly be, probably in much better physical shape than any of their NL opponents. All catchers get beat up during the season, and Soto has got to be the freshest of the starters given the rest.

SUMMATION: Anything can happen in the playoffs, and the regular season don’t mean squat. But on paper, one would think the Cubs would have the advantage. We’ll see. Long story short, we shouldn’t look past this team. On paper, we are better, but this is the playoffs.