My brother is in the process of signing up for the military. He isn't joining the Army but almost everyone else who is going through the sign up process with him is. Even though none of them have yet signed the dotted line, he's catching a great deal of hell from the rest of them because he's joining another branch. How quickly an identity can attach itself.

The Army is now paying a $20,000 signing bonus, in part because being in the Army is a riskier proposition than some of the other branches.

Recently I've read a few articles about soldiers fighting who weren't really fit to serve, but who were pushed through the process because of the troop shortage. I've heard some reports of very slow kids being coached through the ASVAB (the written proficiency test). My brother told me that all of the kids he talked to said the recruiters told them to lie about certain health conditions, like asthma and even sleepwalking. It isn't a few rouge recruiters. It is a collective, unspoken practice.

Those individuals who aren't able to serve, because of a limited intellectual capacity or a physical infirmity, are still honoring their country by trying to do their part. But how are we serving them? Are we setting them up to fail, or worse yet, get hurt or killed? How are we serving the the other soldiers who join with them to form an interdependent chain with weaker than acceptable links? Should a good soldier turn in their recruiter as soon as they sign the dotted line? The questions about what is and is not honorable become a little more gray as we become more desperate for troops.

Labels: Iraq, Joshua Roman, military

CNN is citing a new poll that shows only 54 percent of Clinton voters plan to vote for Obama, down from 60 percent in a previous poll. They claim this is a sign many intend to stay home. My initial reaction: not a big deal, close proximity to the margin of error, and there's a lot of time.

I kept reading, "In early June, 22 percent of Clinton supporters polled said they would not vote at all if Obama were the party's nominee, now close to a third say they will stay home." This is getting a little more troubling.

Back in March I wrote the following about the ability of both Obama and Clinton to court their opponents backers:

"The core of Hillary Clinton's base is older women who have voted in every election for twenty years. They will show up to vote. And they will vote Democrat.

Senator Obama locks down voters who are anything but reliable. He pulls in first time voters. It's easy for them to continue not voting. He inspires Independents and moderate Republicans who would never vote for Hillary. And he's a walking turnout machine for African Americans."

Her voters will come around. We have the love fest that will be the Democratic Convention, and then McCain's profile will be raised enough that Hillary supporters will be inclined to have a preference, and as always, they will make it to the polls.

Perhaps its a Fourth of July idealism, but this election feels different. It's a bigger change, the first without an incumbent President or VP since 1952. It'll be the first without a Bush or a Clinton on the ballot in my lifetime. (Hillary being the VP looks increasingly unlikely). With two wars and the economy in shambles, people will want to stand up and be counted.

McCain has transformed himself from being a maverick to a candidate largely striving to be conventional. It feels like he's running a campaign for 2000 or 2004, not 2008. He hasn't articulated what he's for and, whats worse, he seems to be losing sight of who he is. Also, he seems stale. His picking Lieberman would be a powerful statement about his bipartisanship--McCain could have is own "first". Keep in mind, in 200McCain was interested in running as Kerry's VP, in large part because he was still pissed at Bush about 2000 (vindictiveness isn't a good quality in a President). McCain likely thinks Kerry would have won had he picked him, this element plus his self-definition as a maverick, and his friendship with Lieberman might make him defy the odds-makers and name Lieberman as his VP. The John McCain of 2000 might have been this bold, but I don't see the same courage in the very different animal that is the John McCain of 2008.

Assuming McCain makes a conventional pick, perhaps a Romney a Rudy or a Fred, Hillary's women will run to Obama. If he picks the right female VP, or Lieberman, perhaps he can pull an appreciable amount of Hillary supporters. Otherwise, they will go to Obama, it's only a question of when.

Labels: 2008, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Joshua Roman

It is now July 4th in Virginia, my new home. Jaybandit wrote this posts title, he's in from Pittsburgh and crashing on my couch. I just told him about a proposal by the Commonwealth's Senior Senator John Warner. Warner wants to bring back the nationwide 55 mph speed limit, which was in place from 1974-95.

Here's an alternative proposal for debate/discussion:

Another form of regulation would be requiring all new cars sold in the U.S.A. to have a governor limiting the vehicles speed to say 70 mph, with exceptions for perhaps police cars and other emergency vehicles. Below are a few consequences that we thought up, in no particular order. A pologies for the short list, we're both in a Mexican food coma.

• Municipalities would lose speeding ticket revenue
• No more high speed chases
• Last week one of Joshua's best friends from high school almost lost her brother because a drunk driver hit him head-on going 120 mph. Mothers Against Drunk Driving should get behind this proposal.
• This would boost used car sales and further harm new car sales, but I don't think the boost or the harm would be that severe
• You could create a steep increase in speeding ticket penalties to offset the first bullet and the previous bullet
• Reduction in overall fatalities
• Reduction in overall fuel usage which cuts demand and hopefully someday cuts prices
• Jaybandito thinks this would free up lots of cops to "fight crime rather than hand out frivolous speeding tickets"
  

Labels: domestic policy, JayBandit, Joshua Roman, transportation, travel

Today the Supreme Court rejected the DC gun ban. Here's the opinion. I've asked resident gun nut Ragnar to write a reaction, but I wanted to post a thought one of my most politically astute pals just sent me. He thinks Heller will be good for Democrats long term.

oh -- and to clarify -- I don't think Heller necessarily helps dem candidates this cycle. Now they have to deal with the question: Do you agree with heller. (although I think the easy answer to this is simply "yes"). I think Heller helps dems in the long run. Politically, we always lose the 2nd amd. argument. Going forward, we don't have to argue about what the 2nd amd guarantees because the supreme court just told us what it guarantees. In the future when a dem candidate is asked to you believe in an individuals right to bear arms all she has to say is "sure do - that's the law of the land".

This has always been a losing issue for Dems, particularly in the Midwest, where most of this blogs readership resides. What do you all think the political consequences will be?

Labels: guns, Joshua Roman, politics, second amendment, Supreme Court

Check out the excellent obituary by John Nichols at the The Nation on departed humorist George Carlin. (h/t Grumblebear).

Labels: comedy, greatness, Joshua Roman, legends

Today Senator Obama released his first general election campaign commercial, which is focused largely on his personal narrative and themes of pride in family and country. The ad is running nationwide, including our most conservative states. Although I was once a spirited critic of the 50 state strategy, I think the Dean plan is working. We're forcing the GOP to spend money defensively when they'll have a harder time raising it than we will.

It's easy to forget how dynamic our states really are in presidential elections. Think blue is always blue or red is always red? Do a little exploring in the pre-1992 races at 270 to Win.

Obama's embrace of the 50 state strategy should benefit many red-to-blue House races, and facilitate up to 6 pickups in the Senate. More than that, he's challenging him to be the candidate most associated with patriotism. The best defense is a ferocious offense.

Despite the strength of McCain's personal story and his service, Obama can win a battle talking about Patriotism because he is a much more effective communicator, and frankly, because of the stunningly brilliant David Axelrod's superior packaging of his message.

Michelle also seems to be winning her own patriotism battle, but several remain in her war. She reportedly did well on The View (if I watched it, I wouldn't tell you savage critics), and she's shown disarming humility and grace. I was surprised Laura Bush spoke out for Michelle Obama, a move the notoriously vindictive Cindy McCain likely didn't take very well. There are rumors of bad blood between Laura Bush and Cindy McCain, which makes sense given the brutality of Bush v. McCain in 2000. Today Cindy McCain flew off to Vietnam to do charity work for her organization that helps children with deformities smile. Can anyone think of a first lady's charity that is better politics then helping little deformed children smile? (Note: I'm trying to be less vindictive, negative and reactionary, which is why I wont speculate on how many children have been deformed by fetal alcohol syndrome or drunk driving wrecks facilitated by her beer distributorship)

Finally, speaking of patriotism, this is the most patriotic goddamn thing I've ever seen:

Labels: Barack Obama, John McCain, Joshua Roman, patriotism

Thanks to my buddy David for directing me to this...

Labels: funny videos, gay marriage, Joshua Roman

Congratulations to Del Martin and Phyllis Lyon, aged 87 and 84 respectively, on their marriage today. They have been together over 50 years but treated as second class citizens. After weathering a lifetime of hateful discrimination based solely on who they love, they are finally able to be treated as equals. Today the institution of marriage is stronger. It's about time.

Click here for more on the newlyweds.

Labels: gay marriage, Joshua Roman

Not really, but these folks are:

Labels: 2008, funny videos, Joshua Roman, politics

Today I sent Urbanagora founder Billy Joe Mills a Facebook message and noticed his profile had a link to Pandora, a wonderful free music database that plays streaming music. Billy had a link to music by one of our favorite songwriters, Warren Zevon.

He sung this version of Back in the High Life Again when his body was riddled with cancer. This is easily my favorite version of the song. Zevon passed away a few years back, but he really lived. Some might say he lived his life "Riding the Hellbound Train." Zevon himself once said "I got to be Jim Morrison a lot longer than he did." Anyway, here's a link to a tribute video of Zevon over his rendition of "Back in the High Life Again." I hope you enjoy it.

Labels: greatness, Joshua Roman, legends, music

Recently CNN ran an article on the McCain and Obama tax plans. The article relies on data from The Tax Policy Center, where you can find more in depth analysis on these plans. Our blog has many fans of simple charts, and the chart associated with the article was particularly helpful, and is reproduced below.

BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS

Here's how the average tax bill could change in 2009 if either John McCain's or Barack Obama's tax proposals were fully in place.

MCCAIN OBAMA Income Avg. tax bill Avg. tax bill Over $2.9M -$269,364 +$701,885 $603K and up -$45,361 +$115,974 $227K-$603K -$7,871 +$12 $161K-$227K -$4,380 -$2,789 $112K-$161K -$2,614 -$2,204 $66K-$112K -$1,009 -$1,290 $38K-$66K -$319 -$1,042 $19K-$38K -$113 -$892 Under $19K -$19 -$567

Source:The Tax Policy Center

I don't find any data on McCain's plan very relevant because his plan is a political impossibility with a Democratic Congress. He might as well say he's eliminating taxes and the IRS, and giving every American eleventy bajillion dollars. Any plan of McCain's is at once a fairytale.

This chart refutes the myth that Obama intends to dramatically raise taxes on middle class Americans. Yes, if you make more than 600K, your taxes will go up dramatically. It's more important to look at the bottom end of Obama's chart. Anyone making under 112K will pay less in taxes under President Obama. If only everyone would vote with their pocketbook!

Labels: 2008, Barack Obama, domestic policy, economics, John McCain, Joshua Roman, taxation

h/t to Grumblebear

Labels: Grumblebear, John McCain, Joshua Roman, McCain=Bush, politics

A few months back I wrote a post arguing that the Obama campaign should approach think tanks, academics, and other interest groups to quietly urge these groups to create studies ranking members of the Senate from most liberal to most conservative using methodologies that would land Obama in the middle of the pack. The goal is to rebut the National Journal "study" which proclaimed Obama to be the most liberal member of the Senate. Now that we're in general election mode, this effort would have paid off, more and more we will hear one shoddy study quoted which found Obama to be the most liberal Senator.

Today I'd like to discus the creation of another kind of study, "The Flip-Flop Index." The Flip-Flop Index would take multiple issue areas, say 15-20, and measure how many positions in each area different members of the Senate have flip-flopped on. McCain has changed numerous positions on issues, including gay rights, ethanol, abortion, immigration, Iran, the mortgage crisis, the confederate flag, creating MLK Jr. Day, wire-tapping, the Bush tax-cuts, balancing the budget, and astonishingly, torture. I hope my progressive comrades will fill in more flips and flops in the comments, I know I'm missing several.

The result of this study would very likely show McCain to have the highest rate of Flip-Flop Index of any active Senator and highlight his recent pandering to the right to shore up his base. Such a study would shred what's left of McCain's "maverick" message. Unlike the John McCain of 2000, the John McCain of 2008 is eager to sacrifice principle for politics.

Here is a video and some lists of McCain's flips.

Labels: John McCain, Joshua Roman, message, republican politics, tactics

It is widely known that Barack Obama does not accept contributions from lobbyists or federal PACs. He also doesn't accept funds from individuals registered as foreign agents under FARA. The DNC is now following his lead, and even returning $100,000 it received from lobbyists. Although I am a partisan Democrat, and I frequently give to progressive candidates, I am registered both as a lobbyist and as a federal agent, and therefore, I'm unable to donate to Barack Obama or the DNC. However, I support the Obama policy, and not just because it gives me a good excuse to keep money in my checking account.

As a brief aside, many people don't realize how little you have to do to be required to register as a lobbyist or as a foreign agent. Two one minute phone calls to a Hill staffer on behalf of a client can require registration as a lobbyist. Any work at all in support of a foreign government, even one Google search, requires registration. Obama's rules aren't targeted necessarily at guy's like me, but I'm still covered. Disclosure reports don't really distinguish between those merely required to register by the letter of the law, and the high powered lobbyists Obama likely intended to cover. We are demonized collectively, each branded with scarlet Ls.

Former Ambassador Tom Korologos recently wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal titled "In Defense of Lobbyists." Ambassador Korologos is one of the most respected lobbyists in Washington, but I felt his editorial missed a key point. No one is saying lobbyists should be banished from Washington, or silenced from "petitioning the government for redress." The Obama campaign is simply refusing to accept lobbyist money. A lobbyist can still, through skill, honesty and hard work, be a valuable mouthpiece for clients and a valuable source of information for Members of Congress. Senator Obama merely wants to keep these roles separate from any semblance of a quid pro quo exchange of money for influence.

Lobbyists supporting Obama are not wholly deprived of an opportunity to play a small part in America's civic religion. We can still do almost everything else average Americans can do to help. We can still phone bank, canvass, write letters to the editor, poll watch, help other voters get to the polls, knock on doors, etc. And we should. Obama's lobbyist donation gambit has been a big success. He sacrificed relatively small pools of money, but distinguished himself from Clinton and McCain. More importantly, Obama is convincing the public that that government can be reclaimed from corporate interests and restored to the service of the people.

Labels: Barack Obama, Democratic politics, DNC, Joshua Roman, money

One significant hypocrisy, which remains under reported, is McCain's departure from his maverick championing of campaign finance reform. The following is from an ABC report explaining the loophole his campaign worked to create to allow individuals to dramatically exceed the individual donation limit:

"Under a new fundraising structure created by the campaign and the Republican National Committee, a donor can give up to $70,000 to the "McCain Victory 2008," significantly more than the $2,300 individual donor limit set by campaign finance laws. If a donor gives the maximum amount the money is split into multiple funds that all benefit McCain's campaign: the first $2,300 of that money goes to the McCain campaign itself, the next $28,000 goes to the RNC, and the rest is divided among four swing states the campaign plans to target in the general election. Those targeted states are: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico."

Labels: campaign finance reform, First Amendment, John McCain, Joshua Roman, money, republican politics

If I were running McCain's campaign, the classic song "Proud to Be an American" would play him on to stage at the Republican Convention and then be a common theme song/ anthem for rest of the campaign. There is something particularly stirring about the image of McCain with these lyrics:

"And I gladly stand up next to you and defend her still today. ‘ Cause there ain’t no doubt I love this land, God bless the USA."

This taps into most of the key values that should be weaved together for a winning McCain narrative: nostalgia, patriotism, self sacrifice, honor, experience, toughness, and valor. It also resonates with blue collar voters. It was played heavily following 9-11, and the strong emotional connection some feel to it would subtly reinforce McCain's attempts to focus the debate on national security. Most importantly, whether or not it should, extensive use of this song will make Obama's criticisms of the war a little less effective with some undecided voters.

Labels: John McCain, Joshua Roman, message, music, politics

Labels: George Will, Hillary Clinton, Joshua Roman, quotes, Vice Presidential Candidates

The following was posted at the Huffington Post by Joshua Roman, a friend of Urbanagora:

New reports demonstrate that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice played a pivotal role in the approval of "enhanced interrogation techniques," which are, by any definition but the Administration's, torture. This comes shortly after reports of Rice spending the last few weeks aggressively seeking to become Senator John McCain's running mate. Together, these reports beg the following question: How could John McCain ask Condi Rice to be his running mate, when were she to succeed him, the U.S. would almost certainly engage in torture?

McCain's opposition to torture is far more than a political position. His opposition is elemental. It is seared in his mind and scarred in his flesh - a public morality born of private tragedy.
Following the outcry over Abu Ghraib, Rice was approached by CIA officials and asked for her support for the continued use of "enhanced interrogation techniques." According to the ABC Report, "Then-National Security Advisor Rice, sources said, was decisive. Despite growing policy concerns -- shared by Powell -- that the program was harming the image of the United States abroad, sources say she did not back down, telling the CIA: 'This is your baby. Go do it.'"

These discussions took place at a meeting of the Principles Committee, which included Vice President Cheney, former National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Secretary of State Colin Powell, as well as CIA Director George Tenet and Attorney General John Ashcroft. Then-Attorney General Ashcroft, who is hardly a humanitarian, was so troubled by these discussions he asked aloud after one meeting "Why are we talking about this in the White House? History will not judge this kindly."

But how will John McCain judge Condi Rice's remarks?

"This is your baby. Go do it."

McCain has said, "only by ensuring that the United States adheres to our international obligations and our deepest values can we maintain the moral credibility that is our greatest asset in the war on terror." How can he reconcile his statement with hers?

The answer may well be McCain sacrificing his morality to bolster his electability. We have already seen evidence of McCain picking political pragmatism over principle on this very issue. And his moral flexibility may give way if he buys into data like the new poll of NY state voters showing a McCain-Rice ticket ahead of a Democratic "Dream Ticket."

And the most important question of all: How will the Americans, and particularly independents, judge John McCain if he adds Rice to his ticket, despite her pivotal role in authorizing torture?

Labels: 2008, Condoleezza Rice, Joshua Roman, McCain, politics, republican politics, torture, Vice Presidential Candidates

The following was posted at the Huffington Post by Joshua Roman, a friend of Urbanagora:

Lee Hamilton is a true statesman. His endorsement of Senator Obama should carry great weight in the national dialog about who would be the most capable President and Commander in Chief. Hillary Clinton's chief Hoosier surrogate is perennial Vice Presidential hopeful Evan Bayh. With the Indiana primary quickly approaching, how should Hoosiers weigh these endorsements?

Lee Hamilton's endorsement proves Barack Obama is ready. Evan Bayh's endorsement proved to voters he wanted to be Hillary Clinton's Vice President.

Evan Bayh built a career trading on the legacy of his legendary father Birch Bayh. In Indiana, Evan Bayh is a popular former Governor and part of a political dynasty. However, inside the Beltway, Evan Bayh is thought of by many as a pretty boy in an empty jacket. He looks like he shares a stylist with John Edwards, and he sounds like a conservative centrist without charisma.

Evan Bayh's father Birch Bayh is an Indiana hero, a courageous leader who was willing to take unpopular stands to promote justice, and a visionary who was ahead of his time. His fidelity to progressive values cost him the Democratic nomination in 1980. It is a shame for Indiana and for America that Evan Bayh isn't more like his father. No one would ever accuse Evan Bayh of being ahead of his time. He doesn't stick his neck out or take unpopular stands. Don't expect a Profile in Courage.

Although Bayh is a member of Armed Services Committee and the Intelligence Committee, he hasn't distinguished himself by showing leadership on tough issues. Bayh treads the cautious line of a future-candidate, more concerned about running the races of someday, than tackling the issues of today. He is a lightweight who appears afraid to take tough, principled stands, perhaps in part because of what happened to his father.

Lee Hamilton is an academic powerhouse, a heavyweight. He devoted over forty years to serving America. Most recently he co-chaired President Bush's Iraq Study Group and served as the vice-chair of the 9-11 Study Group. He currently sits on numerous boards and advisory councils, including both the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board and Homeland Security Advisory Council, and he is the President of the prestigious Wilson Center. He spent 34 years in Congress and chaired the Foreign Affairs and Intelligence Committees. As Senator Obama said "Few public servants have done more to advance American foreign policy."

Lee Hamilton's name is synonymous with wisdom, diplomacy, service and statesmanship. Speaking of his faith in Obama's foreign policy capabilities, Hamilton said, "He will work with our friends and allies. Obama will strengthen our ability to use all the tools of American power, and relentlessly promote the American values of freedom and justice for all people."

Lee Hamilton endorsed Senator Obama because of he is impressed with Obama's unifying capacity and his approach to both National Security and Foreign Policy. When Evan Bayh endorsed, he was impressed foremost with Senator Clinton's ability to make him Vice President. Midwesterners understand that motives matter. Despite Evan Bayh's popularity, Lee Hamilton's endorsement should carry more weight.

Labels: 2008, Barack Obama, endorsements, Joshua Roman, legends, politics

Check out this blog entry at the Huffington Post. It is by Joshua Roman, a friend of Urbanagora.

With Hillary gaining in both nationwide and head to head polling, and with the campaigns becoming dirtier and dirtier, there is a good chance the Clinton campaign will again hint at the formation of a joint ticket. This post discusses: the implications of a dream ticket, how Obama's campaign should respond if a joint ticket is suggested again, why people assume Hillary would head the ticket, who needs who as a VP, and the impact Hillary Clinton would have down ticket if she were Obama's VP.

In other news:
(1) My least favorite Democratic Rep. John Murtha has hit the trail in PA for Clinton. Prediction: within the next two weeks he will say something so stupid it will dominate the news cycle.
(2) More proof that Obama is a rock star. People bother watching videos of him just relaxing and talking on the phone.
(3) Senator Bird is still going strong.
(4) New Obama Girl hotness.
(5) As expected, very few will actually spend their rebate checks, but this isn't about economic policy, it's all about politics.
(6) Dr. Kevorkian to run for Congress! This will reinvigorate the assisted suicide debate. I remember talking to Dr. David Gill when he was running against Tim Johnson about this issue. Doctor Gill rejected my suggestions that he lose this element of his platform. In part because unlike Tim Johnson (arguably the single biggest disgrace to the U.S. Congress), Doctor Gill has integrity. Gill was convinced most of America was ready to support this. I'm not sure we are there yet, at least not in the Midwest, but it will be interesting to see this infused into the national debate.
(7) Interesting things are happening with Puerto Rico. They are moving up their primary. It didn't make much news, though it should have, but recently Puerto Rico changed its primary system from a caucus to a primary, and from being winner take all, to a hybrid proportional system. This move was evidently done to favor Obama. Obama is doing surprisingly well in Puerto Rico, due in part to a campaign blunder by the Clinton campaign. As I heard it, the Clinton campaign cancelled a meeting with the Governor of Puerto Rico, and Obama's camp heard about it and swooped in the next day. This agility appears to be paying dividends. It is curious that no other states have tried to increase their clout exponentially by making their Dem primary winner take all. Probably for fear of push back from the DNC.
(8) Hillary Clinton totally lied about Bosnia.
(9) My favorite GOP operative Roger Stone pwn3d Spitzer. Check it out. For more on Stone, you should seriously check out this amazing write up. I love his comic approach, his showmanship, and his rules to live by. Also, anyone who gets a tattoo of Nixon's face on his back is someone you don't want to mess with.
(10) David Brooks on Clinton's odds.

Labels: 2008, Augur, Barack Obama, David Brooks, heroes, Hillary Clinton, Joshua Roman, politics, pretty girls, Roger Stone