Comments on : Why the Supers Will Demand a Joint Ticket

JIMMY CARTER AND BARACK OBAMA is the strongest tic...

2008-05-24T16:31:00.000-05:00

JIMMY CARTER AND BARACK OBAMA is the strongest ticket. Everyone likes and trusts them together.

CKeiper

haha whooops. I left 3 states out of the chart an...

2008-04-30T18:37:00.000-05:00

haha whooops.

I left 3 states out of the chart and analysis: although the impact is minimal.

Vermont (3 electoral votes), Delaware (3), and North Dakota (3) all got misplaced at the bottom of my chart during editing. All three went for Obama, and strengthen his argument accordingly.

Vermont and Delaware belong in the Blue State category, creating the new metric:

HRC blue state electoral votes= 158
Obama blue state EV= 90

While North Dakota is red state:

HRC red state EV= 58
Obama red state EV= 80

HRC red EV -TEXAS= 32
Obama red EV +TEXAS= 114

HRC total EV= 316
Obama total EV= 221

thetodd:i have thousands of dollars already bet on...

2008-04-30T13:36:00.000-05:00

thetodd:

i have thousands of dollars already bet on the election. (including a lil wager with mr. billy joe mills)

but I am making much easier money by abandoning dollars all together.

converting dollars to euros, or swiss francs, and investing in european money markets yields nearly 11% a year. 6 % in the money market, and 5 % in euro gains on the dollar.

the dollar is going down, and it will never bounce back.

"Obama has basically a 0% chance at winning the no...

2008-04-30T11:58:00.000-05:00

"Obama has basically a 0% chance at winning the nomination"

There is a lot of nearly risk-free money out there waiting for you to claim it in the futures markets. Every dollar you can get down on Hillary to win the nomination will return a profit of close to $4.

In fact, depending on just how close to 0% you mean, the mathematical variance (riskiness) of such a bet is even lower than that of even keeping money in that bastion of safety and risklessness - a bank account (accounting for typical fluctuations in the value of the USD).

Arthur Schlesinger, not a person to take things li...

2008-04-30T11:46:00.000-05:00

Arthur Schlesinger, not a person to take things lightly, wrote about the Business Plot extensively. This is a proven historical fact, not some kind of paranoid fantasy. If you'd just like to click, rather than cut and paste it, here's a direct link to the wiki page.

That was a close one--we could have ended up as part of the Axis if that one had occurred. I may do a parallel universe SF story sometime about it.

Tom

Mike: I disagree that "Obama will win all metrics....

2008-04-30T11:19:00.000-05:00

Mike:

I disagree that "Obama will win all metrics." He will win three metrics: more pledged delegates, more states won, and more electoral votes in red states.

Never before in the history of brokered conventions, has a candidate ever won on the basis of the pledged delegate count. Similarly, no candidate has won on the basis of winning unfriendly (red) states. In every case, the floor reports and discussion has focused on who the safest candidate is in the friendly (blue) states.
The argument that a candidate "won the most states" has minimal value if any at all, and will not be a bargaining chip for Obama.

HRC is likely to win all the other important metrics: majority of the popular vote, majority of the superdelegates, majority of the blue state electoral votes, majority of the battleground state electoral votes, and majority of electoral votes.

As I explained above, it will be very very difficult, and a complete break from historical precedent, for Obama to convince the superdelegates that he is the safest choice given the primary results and the electoral vote analysis.

HRC will top the ticket because the nomination will be decided by negotiation.

HRC can argue that she is the safest candidate, if each candidate goes up against McCain by themselves. She will win that argument because of the blue-red-battleground argument above.

So, because she wins the head-to-head analysis, she would be the presumptive nominee at that point in the negotiation. If Obama can then rebut this presumption, by demonstrating, factually, that he is the better candidate to top the ticket...then he could perhaps top the ticket.

But it would be very very hard to imagine how Obama would demonstrate that he is the stronger candidate to top the ticket. He would need to make his argument using primaries he has won, and supplement his primary victories with compelling arguments about Texas, Ohio, Florida and other large states (that he lost). Obama will have to find some compelling reason, why he is safer candidate to top a joint ticket despite the fact that he is the weaker (or at least, less safe) candidate to go up against McCain one-on-one.

Again, if you do not believe that the one-on-one matchup favors HRC, please see my blue-red-battleground analysis above.

Despite the constant lies by the CIA-owned corporate media, Obama has basically a 0% chance at winning the nomination.

Young liberals now get to experience the same disappointment an disillusion that idealistic, young republicans have experienced for 8 years:

everything the liberal media (MSNBC) is sayint is a lie, designed to play off of the better intentions of liberals, such that the liberals expect to see their agenda pursued: but in reality, power politics is the only game in DC.

When all this is over, young liberals will understand that MSNBC is very much like Fox. MSNBC is owned by GE, which is owned by the same European and Anglo-American families that supported Hitler, and sponsored an attempted coup in America.

see: GE sponsored fascist coup in America:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_plot

It does appear more and more likely that there wil...

2008-04-29T22:50:00.000-05:00

It does appear more and more likely that there will be a unity ticket. But the question is why do you think Hillary will be on top of the ticket? Since Obama will likely win in all metrics (except, possibly the popular vote, and even that is so close and fraught with problems that it is probably at best a wash for Hillary), why would they push her to the top rather than force her to take the second spot? Wouldn't forcing Obama to take second place piss off just as many of his supporters as nominating a ticket with Hillary and not Obama?

the real question will be who's at the top of the ...

2008-04-29T19:00:00.000-05:00

the real question will be who's at the top of the ticket at this point unfortunately. It looks like Clinton might just pull it off partly on the assumption that Obama can always run again in 2016

Son of a bitch, this analysis is brilliant. Offer...

2008-04-29T18:45:00.000-05:00

Son of a bitch, this analysis is brilliant. Offer this guy a job.

He's absolutely right.

Tom