Joshua
Card Check Timing Conspiracy?
I’m not sure how many of you in the Agora are following the card check legislation, also known as the Employee Free Choice Act. This is an epic battle between labor unions and business. The EFCA would simplify the process of forming a union by allowing a majority of workers to sign a card supporting a union, rather than voting on unionization. It also includes binding arbitration provisions, and increased penalties, but most of the media focus is on “card check.” This eliminates the company’s opportunity to launch a campaign against unionizing, or take affirmative steps to address the needs of workers to preclude the need to unionize. Big business has chosen the secret ballot as the symbol of their battle, which I consider a mistake. I think a well reasoned explanation of practical objections, particularly those based on current economic circumstances, would be a better way to sway public opinion, in part because explanations of the current unionization regime don’t seem particularly unreasonable in the public mind.
Recently Sen. Specter, a moderate, endangered Republican, stated he will not vote for cloture to bring the card check vote to the floor. Now a compromise proposal is being floated, but both main interest groups are opposing it. All along both groups have vowed that no compromise would be acceptable. I suspect that position will hold, at least through 2009. But the reason isn’t Arlen Specter.
In the media we may hear lots of stories about why the bill is held back. The story may center on specific moderate Senators, or we may hear a narrative about how the EFCA is too bloody of a battle to fight now when we are facing economic disaster, or that the Dems are waiting for Frankin, or that unions need to wait for the economy to recover to weaken the business’s gloom and doom predictions. But what’s really going on? It all comes down to money. This is the kind of fight that employs a great many lobbyists, many of whom have less and less other paying work due to clients cutting their lobbying budget or being unable to pay their bills. Too many people on both sides are getting paid for anyone to want to draw thier guns. Why fight the war when after it’s waged the retainer checks will stop coming in? And until the vote takes place, both unions and business groups will stay especially interested in fundraisers for moderate, endangered members like Specter.
One in Five Million
Click the jump to see a pictures of a two headed turtle named Frik and Frak. I took these pictures at the Renn Faire in Maryland a few months ago. These turtles were born in 2001, and if you’re wondering, they each have separate stomachs which is why they have humps in their shell. According to the sign above their tank, one turtle in a million is born with two heads, and only one in five survives more than six months.
President Obama’s Inaugural Address
Hit the jump for the full text of the speech. Please post your thoughts on his speech on this thread.
Illini Need More Free Throws
My grandfather observed a truth about Bobby Knight’s Indiana teams, they typically made more free throws than their opponents attempted. Our Illini, at least in big games, tend to shoot fewer free throws than their opponents make.
Predictions for the early days of the Obama administration
1) Obama will go with a short speech, powerful, memorable, quotable speech which will be under 20 minutes long. JFK’s inaugural was 12 minutes long, and there is a connection. Ted Sorenson who wrote much of the Kennedy inaugural address, and who advises Obama, had help with his memoirs from a young man who is now one of Obama’s speech writers. And this year’s inaugural theme is centered on Lincoln, including using Lincoln’s Bible. Another historic analogy that will be quickly and often drawn is the comparison to Lincoln’s famous Gettysburg Address.
2) Obama wont rush dont ask dont tell. This will be pushed back out of the beginning of the agenda. While Obama might be catching some hell from the gay community about dont ask dont tell, he’s way to smart to let this derail his first 100 days the way it derailed Clintons. Too much political capital.
3) Stimulus will pass with broad bipartisan support, and many republicans will later regret their vote as they run low on popular ways to distinguish their record from Dems.
4) A few months stories will break about the ultimate policy pragmatist Rahm sparring with Congressional leaders about what to push when, he’ll be pushing to keep things centrist and post-partisan a while longer.
5) Michelle Obama will dazzle us all with her poise and grace. By the end of 2009, she will have a higher approval rating than even the Barackstar.
6) Neither Cuomo nor Kennedy will be the next Senator from NY.
7) Dow will be above 10,000 by July, but will dip below 7,900 again before April.
8) Jaybandit and I are having a weight loss contest, I will win.
2009 Predictions
Please post your predictions for the new year in this thread.
Illinois upsets Purdue 71-67 in overtime
Did anyone else watch the Illini upset Purdue? What an exciting game. Tisdale was huge, Mike Davis was fantastic. We overcame a huge disadvantage in free throw attempts by taking great care of the ball. Chester Frasier had 7 rebounds and I think 7 assists with one turnover. The team played fantastic defense, and it seems like McCamey may have learned a tough lesson from riding the pine. And the Bruce coached his butt off.
This should be our stepping stone into the top 25.
IL Special Election Joint Resolution?
Can a legislative joint resolution trump a state statute? The answer to this question is almost always an immediate “No.” But we may have a special case in Illinois.
Comment on Capitol Fax’s Question of the Day
As the Blagojevich circus continues to unfold, I want to recommend that our readers check out the updates at the Capitol Fax Blog. Today, two of our contributors, John Bambeneck and myself, have been debating on the threads. I hope you’ll join in.
Impeachment hearings *** Monk’s cell phone tapped? ***
The question of the day is based on a proposal by State Rep. Will Burns, who I got to know when I was working in Springfield. Will is a creative and bright young rising star in the Democratic party. And I always thought he was also a genuinely nice guy.
Peeing for welfare
Today I talked to my cousin Brent, a no-nonsense former Marine with a generally conservative perspective. We had a spirited political discussion, where we both tossed out some unconventional ideas. I told him I’d post one of them on the blog and send him your reactions, so please react.
Brent thinks that anyone on welfare who wants to keep getting a welfare check should have to consent to a drug test, and random future drug tests. He is confident the cost savings would pay for the testing several times over. It would reduce drug use in the ghettos and keep some tax payer dollars from going to drug dealers.