Augur
Reflecting on History
Seventy five years ago yesterday, on March 4, 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt was sworn in to begin his first term. He delivered his famed inaugural address where he declared:
“Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself–nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”
My grandfather, like many of his generation from rural Midwest, credits FDR and the New Deal from keeping our family from starving. This speech reminded me that our country has made it through far tougher times. More importantly, it ignited a fury that burns against the politics of winning by making people afraid. Candidates that drum up fears of economic devastation, of never ending war, or of terrorism, should be rejected. We should all hunger for a rebirth of FDR’s optimistic, uniquely American, spirit and resolve.
Update: The brilliant and lovely Dr. Rachel Maddow has a similar post up today. She says, in part:
In January 1941, at a time when the world was at war and the United States was more threatened than we had ever been in our history, FDR stood before the US Congress and hailed freedom from fear. That remains the paradigm of Democratic leadership in a threatening world.When a politician looks at risks to our country and sees an opportunity for political exploitation, rather than an opportunity to rally the nation around our unified strength and fearlessness, that politician spits in the face of Democratic leadership and patriotic values.
If there’s one thing we ought to have learned from the George W. Bush presidency, it’s that there’s a difference between Democrats and Republicans on whether the American people should be encouraged to cower in fear.
March 4th Predictions Thread
Chris at the Outside Report now has a prediction thread up. It goes all the way to the convention. It’s worth a read, as Chris is consistently rock solid.
As for my thoughts — I am worried about Obama. This is more based on a gut feel, than rational analysis, but Clinton seems to be gaining momentum in the last few days. I’m not sure if it’s enough to temper the aggressive climb Obama has shown in the last few weeks, but this is a predictions thread, so stands must be taken, even if it leads to my falling flat on my face:
Clinton takes Rhode Island and Obama takes Vermont.
Clinton takes both Texas and Ohio popular vote. The early calling of one of the two states, coupled with a better caucus strategy/trickery by the Clinton campaign either brings her very close or wins the TX caucus. Despite losing the TX popular vote, Obama either ties or wins TX on pledged delegates.
My rationale: (1) Democrats are fickle. We quickly get buyers remorse, and while we’ve pretty much picked Obama, we’ve waited in line at the cashier of democratic primary politics, and we’re just about to check out. We fear the buyers remorse that may be coming. (2) Hillary’s been winning the pop culture war with SNL, crazy as it sounds, I think her Daily Show visit tonight could be big. (3) Despite Obama’s solid performance in the last debate, people started asking about the media handing this thing to her, crazy as it sounds SNL validated the Clinton campaign’s complaint, and people trust fake news as much or more than real news. (4) The Obama NAFTA blunder will be on every paper in Ohio tomorrow, probably Texas too, but that’s a big part of my rationale for Ohio.
If I’m wrong, here’s my best guess at why: (1) Incredibly high OH turnout, and the bad turnout modeling in Ohio polls. (2) Some reports suggest Obama may be up in TX early voting, which shouldn’t be the case given recent trend lines. (3) Not enough time for the NAFTA story to really sink in around Ohio, particularly among blue collar dems who really care about NAFTA, but might not always reliably read the news. (4) Polling models on Latinos in TX, way off. (5) My gut about her momentum is a few days ahead of reality, because of inside-the-beltway-think.
Assuming I’m wrong, if Hillary wins either OH or TX, she will stay in the race through at least Pennsylvania. The next two contexts should favor Obama, but after that, as Chris mentions, could be rough waters. And what will it say about Obama that he couldn’t land his knock out punch after his massive spending spree leading up to March 4th.
The Russian "Election"
Here’s a thread for anyone on the Agora wishing to discuss the Russian election, we have at least two Russians who contribute to the Agora (Lally and Anna), and perhaps they can weigh in.
A good starting place may be this Economist editorial: “An ugly victory.”
One brief comment, I recently attended a moving talk by chess champion turned Putin agitator Garry Kasparov. In discussing Putin’s 75% approval rating, he said “It isn’t remarkable that Mr. Putin has a 75% approval rating. It is remarkable that 25% would answer a telephone poll from an unknown caller and say they disapprove of Mr. Putin.”
Ohio for Obama
Editors note: This is a guest post by my dear friend Jen Walling. Jen is a triple Illini who works in Democratic politics. She was a campus superstar while at Illinois, and played a leading role in the UIUC campus making a serious commitment to sustainability. She has also worked hard to create citizen police review boards in the Champaign-Urbana community. This weekend Jen was in Cincinati canvassing for Obama, and I invited her to write a guest post telling us about her experience. I’m thankful she has done so, and I hope you enjoy it, and feel free to comment!
~ by Jen Walling
When I got an invitation from a friend to canvas on Ohio for Senator Barack Obama’s presidential campaign a few weeks ago, I was skeptical and initially, I turned it down. I’m a busy person; what good would it do for me to go out to a state that I knew very little about? What impact could I have on race as huge as a presidential campaign? But as I watched the poll numbers in Ohio tighten over the past week, I knew that if I wanted to have a Democratic nominee that I would be proud to support, I would have to work for it.
Our group, made up of 110 Chicagoans including families, students, experienced politicos, and political neophytes left Chicago for Cincinnati on Friday. On Saturday and Sunday, we headed out to knock on doors all day long. Walk packets and canvas routes were expertly arranged by the Obama campaign.
My group of five canvassers knocked on doors in diverse areas of the city. We knocked on doors in areas that were clearly economically impoverished and in areas with million dollar homes. We spoke to rural residents and urban apartment dwellers. I thought that being from out of state might be a liability, but Ohio voters were impressed that we drove six hours for our candidate and excited to speak to someone from a state that had already elected Obama to the state legislature and U.S. Senate.
Most of the voters that we spoke to were undecided about their vote in the presidential primary. Most had been bombarded by mail, tv, and radio ads by both candidates. However, none of the thousands of voters that we talked to this weekend had been visited by a volunteer for Clinton. If Obama wins the race, it’s clear that his volunteer operation in Ohio will have made a great difference.
My most inspiring moment came when talking to an African American woman and her two children. I knocked on her door and told her I was from the Obama campaign. She told me that she was still undecided about who to vote for and that she had a lot of questions. She pulled me into her apartment and got a girlfriend on the phone who also had questions. She was an army vet working hard to take care of her kids. She asked me specific questions about health care, the war in Iraq, and tax policy. She was thrilled that I stopped by and her kids were clearly Obama supporters. By the time that I walked out, she and the girlfriends that she called wanted a yard sign.
All of our canvassers had similar inspiring moments throughout the day where our one on one contact made up someone’s mind. Even if we didn’t swing every voter towards Senator Obama for the primary, these voters will think about our door to door contact when the general election rolls around and our candidate needs support in this critical swing state.
I came home from the weekend thoroughly inspired, hopeful, and ready to give my time to Obama as he works to become our next president. After this weekend, it is crystal clear to me that Obama motivates and brings together the people that are needed to solve the big problems that our country faces. I’m excited to have had the chance to work for such an amazing candidate.
Bold Ad by Clinton in TX: This one’s for Ann
While browsing Hillary Clinton’s campaign website, I saw this remarkable ad suggesting that deceased, former Texas Governor Ann Richards would support Hillary Clinton. The theme is “this one’s for Ann.”
It will be interesting to see how this plays. The ad itself is very effective, but it definitely has the potential to backfire. Richards’ sons have already objected to the video. And in a higher way, it seems low to exploit the memory of a revered Texas political hero, and imply that Texas voters have a debt to Richards they can only pay by voting for Hillary Clinton. In this sense, the ad is exploitative and indecent.
It is a little tough to attack, because the Clinton camp will respond by saying, essentially that the ad was intended to honor Governor Richards memory, and that she was important to both Hillary and to history, and that Obama’s campaign should be ashamed of itself for daring attack the dreams of little girls everywhere.
Update: Obama to run ads in Ohio featuring endorsements from former Presidents Harrison, Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Harrison, McKinley, Taft, & Harding.
Dennis Kucinich in a Primary Fight
Check out “Presidential Run Done, Kucinich Is Fighting to Keep Seat in House” by Paul Kane, in today’s Washington Post.
Evidently, the people of Ohio-10 are getting a little sick of Denny running for President instead of delivering for his district. As Kane reports, “Triad Research, a local pollster, showed that Kucinich’s job-approval rating fell from 78 percent in 2005 to 56 percent late last year.”
Here are a few other highlights from Kane’s article:
Denny’s opponent accuses him of being a sell out: “He doesn’t want to be our congressman anymore. It’s clear he’s left the building. The guy’s got Hollywood fever, and that would be fine if he was using his national stature to actually get things done,” City Councilman Joe Cimperman, Kucinich’s main opponent, said in a telephone interview.”
Mr. Cimperman is using humor and clever tactics to gain ground: “Cimperman has resorted to attention-generating stunts. He appeared at Kucinich’s Cleveland office with a videographer, who taped him handing a “Missing” poster with a large Kucinich mug shot to a front-desk worker…. Cimperman also showed up at Kucinich’s home with local pastries, sausage, Stadium Mustard and a map of Ohio, accusing the lawmaker of abandoning his roots in favor of ‘eating sushi with Sean Penn.’”
I was disappointed to read that Kucinich appears to be trying to intimidate his opponent into backing down, this seems like the sort of petty threatening activity one would never expect from Kucinich: “Kucinich asked the Department of Homeland Security whether Cimperman’s unannounced visits to Kucinich’s office and home violated federal laws.”
As much as I love Dennis Kucinich, whose views were probably the closest to my own of any of the Presidential candidates, I wouldn’t want him running anything. His disastrous tenure as Mayor of Cleveland provides ample evidence of incompetence.
In truth, he isn’t the kind of Congressman I would want representing me. He has been pathetically inept at passing any meaningful legislation. He lacks pragmatism, and is guilty of letting the good be the enemy of the perfect. He picks grandstanding over impacting policy.
Worse yet, in economically depressed Ohio, he has also failed to deliver for his district. Kane mentions a Taxpayers for Common Sense study showing that Kucinich was next to last among Ohio Democrats in bringing home federal dollars for his district, bringing in less than $8.1 million. Federal spending for jobs and on infrastructure could make a dramatic difference in the lives of his constituents: “Kucinich’s unorthodox side has been on display for decades. But recently it began to grate on local activists who want him to focus on a region that has lost 40,000 jobs in the past 10 years.”
These activists have a point. He hasn’t delivered for his district and he hasn’t been an effective legislator. While I hope he stays in the national spotlight as an outspoken advocate for the progressive movement, the people of Ohio’s Tenth Congressional District deserve a better representative. Odds are, Denny will hold his seat. Hopefully this close call serve as a wake up call.
More Goodbyes to Bill Buckley
I’m watching this goodbye to Buckley by Charlie Rose now, judging on what I’ve seen so far, it’s worth a watch.
Peggy Noonan in tomorrow morning’s WSJ.
Obama Irish?
My buddy Ryan just sent me this link to an Obama St. Patrick’s Day shirt. This shirt is a fantastic celebration of St. Patty’s Day, and the Obama’ campaign’s sense of humor. And how much is it, you ask? $20.08.
Keep this in mind if you’re on campus at the University of Illinois for Unoffical St. Patrick’s Day, UIUC’s lovely liberal ladies will love this shirt.
I want to trademark calling Unofficial St. Patricks Day: “The University of Illinois’ Proudest Remaining Tradition.”
Warning for those visiting the University of Illinois for Unofficial: Stay out of the dorms, or Chancellor Richard Herman will drink your blood. Ok, maybe not, but he does look a lot like a vampire and none of us at the Agora have ever seen him outside.
Explaining the Success of Obama’s Campaign
The following is a post by a good friend of mine who has excellent political instincts and observations. He sent me this email, and I thought it was good enough that I asked if I could share it with the Agora if I used a pen name. I also redacted the names of the specific campaigns he was on, to further protect his identity, but that doesn’t really interfere with his analysis. He hits on an important question, what has made Obama’s campaign so masterful.
~ by the Man in Black
So I was reading Ben Smith’s blog at Politico and came upon this posting: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_branding.html#comments. It made me realize that Obama’s campaign may just be the best run political campaign of our lifetimes. Everyone is on message; very few mistakes are made; the branding is perfect (that really is a huge deal, btw); the candidate is getting better and better at the things he was doing poorly earlier in the campaign (responding to attacks, for instance). I mean, really, think about it: who, in the past 25 years, has run a campaign as focused and well managed as Obama?
While all that’s nice to think about, it begs the question of why is Obama’s campaign the best in two decades? It can’t just be the candidate, can it? Or the strategists? It’s not that David Axelrod (or David Plouffe for that matter) is the Democratic Karl Rove. For a while, I couldn’t put my finger on a reasonable answer to this question. Then, I came up with this thought: has Obama’s campaign been so successful because the people working for him actually believe in him? I know this theory seems a bit naive, but hear me out. As both of you know, most campaign staff and volunteers believe in winning; they believe in the party. Few staffers or volunteers, I believe, actually, honestly believe in the candidate. At least for me, I’ve worked on multiple high stakes federal campaigns, for prominent officials. For each guy, I liked working for him because he was a Democrat, but I never was a huge fan of any of the candidates. They were all fine, but I liked politics and campaigning; I worked for the experience, not for the candidate.
It seems to me that Obama’s staff and volunteers (and supporters) don’t feel that way at all. These people believe in Barack Obama. They believe in what he can do and they totally buy in to the theme of his campaign. These people aren’t working for Barack because they’re hoping for a job in the administration, they’re working for him because they believe in the promise of an Obama administration. And, because they believe in him and buy into the theme of the campaign, they STICK to the theme of the campaign and don’t do anything to harm it. No one leaks, no one goes off message. A reality, I believe, that exists because few of Obama’s staff and volunteers are in it for themselves.
Look, I’m sure there have been other candidates like Obama in the past – Bobby Kennedy immediately comes to mind – and I’m sure their campaigns were similar to his. But, I don’t believe there has been a candidate like this in my political lifetime. And, of course, all of the “Obamaniacs” could be totally delusional and the campaign may well fall apart once the Republican attack machine starts in full bore — I doubt that, but it’s possible. In the end, though, my bottom line is this: As a campaign, Obama’s has been quite amazing to this point, and we, as political junkies, should all feel lucky to be witnessing it.
U of I Picks PR Over Safety
Check out today’s Daily Illini editorial. They make a great point. This is just the latest potentially disastrous bad call by Chancellor Richard Herman who values public relations over sound policy, and in this case, over student safety. Wouldn’t a better policy be making it clear to all students in the dorms that they will be held responsible for the actions of their guests, and telling them police will be called immediately if there is disruptive activity in the dorms? Perhaps Chancellor Herman is following the perennially short-sighted advice of Housing Director Jack Collins, but the buck stops with Chancellor Herman. His first charge is keeping the students at the university safe. I hope if there is a rise in injuries, sexual assaults, or fatalities, that Chancellor Herman is held responsible.