Augur
Explaining PA Poll With Obama up 2%
Check out this post by Chris at the Outside Report on the recent PPP poll showing Obama up 45-43%. The Obamaniac in my wants it to be true, but it doesn’t really seem possible. I think Chris’s explanation makes a lot of sense. Because it’s short, I’m going to copy the full post here.
I’ve gotten a couple of emails from people asking me whether the PPP poll showing Obama up 45-43% was real. The one thing I’ve learned from watching polls over the last several years is to look at the baseline poll number for the poll compared to other polls and look at the number of undecideds. Basically, in virtually every recent poll of Pennsylvania, including Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Quinniqupac, Obama’s numbers range from 41%-45%.
Much like New Hampshire and virtually every other state, it is Clinton’s numbers
that greatly vary, ranging from 53% to 43%. What does this mean? It means that
PPP, as a telephone poll, needs to push its undecided voters more. Obama is
probably pulling 43% of the Pennsylvania vote, but Hillary is still likely
pushing the mid-50%. The problem is Hillary’s supporters are notoriously hard to
poll.They appear fickle with telephone pollsters but in fact, they almost never
change their mind. When Hillary is “under” attack, they are less likely to say
who they support, but ultimately they support her. This has been true in every
state. Obama pulled “even” with Hillary in Texas and in Ohio, but ultimately,
her voters always come back. Remember that when reading these types of
polls.
Practice Pointer: Don’t be a jerk off
As the Professional Responsibility experts at the Above the Law teach us, if you make a masturbatory gesture to a judge, you’re only screwing yourself.
Their lawyer of the day is Adam Reposa.
Adam Reposa, 33, was held in contempt of court by County-Court-at-Law Judge Jan Breland for his “intentional and contumacious conduct during the court’s review of the plea bargain offer to his client before jury trial.”
Reposa, who could not be reached for comment, “made a simulated masturbatory gesture with his hand while making eye contact with the court in response to an objection by the state to his interference with the court plea bargain inquiry,” Breland wrote in a judgment of criminal contempt of court filed March 11.
Check the Above the Law post, for more of his exploits, including his graceful handling of the press and his inspiring YouTube commericials.
Altgeld Forum at UIS examines constitutional question
The subject of the annual Altgeld Forum at the University of Illinois at Springfield will be the state’s Constitution referendum. “Constitutional Convention: Pro or Con-Con?” will begin at 7 p.m. Tuesday, March 25, in Brookens Auditorium, located on the lower level of Brookens Library on the UIS campus. The event is free and open to the public.
In November 2008, voters will be asked to decide whether to call a convention to consider amendments to the 1970 Illinois Constitution or redraft the entire document.
Sponsored by the UIS Pre-Law Center, the program will feature a panel discussion by Mary Lee Leahy and John Alexander, both delegates to the 1969 Constitutional Convention, and UIS Professor Emeritus Frank Kopecky, author of Understanding the Illinois Constitution.
A reception will follow the program.
For more information, contact Assistant Professor Dennis Rendleman, director of the UIS Pre-Law Center, at 217/206-6324.
Can we get it?
Editors note: This is a guest post by a friend of mine who will be commenting here and occasionally writing a guest post under the name “Satya.” She was introduced to me by one of my smartest, most talented colleagues as “my smarter, more talented sister.” Unlike most of us who pontificate about Obama while remained firmly planted on our asses, Satya has actually spent the last year working for the Obama campaign.
~by Satya
Barack Obama’s landmark speech on race was not the best he has given thus far. His speech at the JJ dinner in Iowa, despite reaching most people via YouTube, surpassed this week’s speech, and many still continue to hail his 2004 DNC keynote address as his finest.
What was remarkable about Barack’s speech this week was the content. His critics accuse him of sounding great, but being light on content. This speech was all content. He apprised white people of things they either don’t know, aren’t cognizant of, or combination of the two because of white privilege.
His interview after with ABC News really drove this point home when he explained to Terry Moran about how differently white and black people react to the news of major crime. He explained it to him, as I [as a person of color] have many times in a nonthreatening way, how one’s initial reaction to news of the major crime is to worry that the perpetrator might be of your subculture. Barack then clearly illustrated to him the privileges of being white in America by asking him if he would ever be worried about resembling someone who had done something bad.
Jon Stewart, as always, nicely summed up Barack’s big gamble now. He has treated us like adults, put forth subtleties and difficult questions for us to digest. He got his message across, despite being asked idiotic question like, “Are you a black man or an American first?”
(Funny how being black is like being Muslim…you’re still not allowed to have multiple identities if you’re American.)
Appropriate quote for these uncertain economic times
Yesterday’s powerful 400 point market surge was largely reversed by a 300 point fall today. My fear of the economic end times has grown so severe that I now almost dread seeing the super sexy Erin Burnett every morning on MSNBC. As we ponder the tough times that may be ahead, this quote seems appropriate:
“A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don’t need it.” – Bob Hope
Open thread to discuss the economy
Tom, Jaybandit, and Billy are having a spirited debate over email about the state of the economy. I’ve been a passive observer, but I’m spooked because every morning the super hot Erin Burnett has more bad news. Apart from some modest artistic exaggeration on my part, their positions are expressed below:
Billy: “Trust the great golden God of the market. Everything is going to be great. it could only be better if the market were wholly unregulated!”
Tom: “We are all going to die, or at least we’re all most seriously fucked – raid the banks and hide your money in your matresses”
Jaybandit: “Tom is wrong, and only thinks he’s right because he’s old[er].”
Random Ramblings: Likes and Dislikes
I made a quick list of some thinks I like and dislike, and I thought, why not share them with the Agora.
Likes:
(1) this electoral mapping tool (check out the historic races)
(2) futurist trend spotting
(3) Billy Collins
(4) “Yer so bad” by Tom Petty
(5) the cold side of the pillow
(6) the Huffington Post
(7) Jeffersonian curiosity
(8) Ira Carmen and public intellectuals
(9) thetodd’s consistently rational, warm, and thoughtful commentary and Jaybandit’s corner
(10) my “Underdog” glass
Dislikes:
(1) the ban on money transfers that ruined online poker, which has made me a worse player because it is easier to patiently wait for good cards when you’re playing 6-8 tables, than in a live game
(2) when people use the verb “did” or “do” to act on a place, such as “we did Cancun” or “Dude, we’re gunna do Deleware”
(3) being called “dude”
(4) blog redesigns taking much longer than they should because we have a shortage of design ability [if you want to help, we would really appreciate it -please email urbanagora@gmail.com]
(5) the words “clearly,” “precipice,” and “turd”
(6) living life in six minute increments
(7) being addicted to my blackberry
(8) when people who aren’t significantly better than me at chess get chess related tattoos
(9) my inability to understand why anyone with an IQ over 85 would support Hillary Clinton – doesn’t the illogical, dishonest, and exaggerated messaging bother you? I need to figure this out if I want to get better at politics
(10) the merciless shrew who refused to negotiate and charged me $25 for my Underdog glass
Happy Birthday Mr. Madison
Today would be President James Madison’s 257th birthday. I visited his estate at Montpelier today to pay a few hours respect to the man and the mind that arguably did more than any other to shape our republic. His home is currently undergoing a dramatic renovation, for more on that click here. If you can find the time, take a few minutes and read about the father of our constitution, the draftsman of much of the Bill of Rights, an author of the federalist papers, a Congressman, a Secretary of State, our Fourth President, — the Sage of Montpelier.
If you have time to read just one work of Mr. Madison, read The Federalist No. 10.
Obama: On My Faith and My Church
Obama quickly responded to the political controversy of the day: several controversial statements from past sermons of Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Instead of making a public statement, he wrote this Op-ed for the Huffington Post.
Practice Pointer: Dont get cute with Congress
Al Kamen of the Washington Post wrote a delightful piece called “The Face of DHS Looks a Little Pale.” Take a look for a great example of Congressional showmanship, and a good laugh. Here’s a brief recap:
Homeland Security Secretary Cherthoff attended a House hearing questioning his Department’s diversity practices. Who did he bring with him to this hearing? Ten aides, all of whom were white males.
Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) took notice, and asked all of Chertoff’s aides to stand up. Watt says to Cherthoff: “You brought 10 staff people with you…all white males. . . . But I hope you’ve got more diversity in your staff than is reflected here. Please reassure me that is the case.” Cherthoff responds: “I think that is definitely the case.” So far, not good, but not completely humiliating.
Watt was about to move on when Cherthoff chimes in, “I wouldn’t assume that the ethnic background of everybody behind me is self-evident.” Watt responds: “I wouldn’t assume the ethnic background of everybody behind you is self-evident, but I think I know an African American when I see one. . . . If anyone wants to stand up and volunteer and tell me they are an African American, I hope they will do that right now.” Of course, no one stood.
At this point people started laughing. Watt kept pouring it on: “If anybody is a female that’s sitting back there and wants to stand up and volunteer to tell me that . . . I hope they will do that right now. And I want the record to show clearly that nobody stood up to volunteer in either one of those categories.”
To round out the pwnage, Watt chided Cherthoff: “So if you want to make that point and be cute about it . . . let me be explicit about it. . . . If we are going to do law enforcement in this country . . . we need to understand that there is an element of diversity in our country that is not represented here.”
Taking ten white guys to a hearing on diversity — he deserves it.