The Israeli Elections & the US (UPDATED)

The final tally of Israel’s elections are not in yet, but the basic outline looks clear. Either the center-left Kadima will peel off an ultra-right-wing party to form a weak majority incapable of credibly negotiating for peace, or Kadima will fail and a right-wing government will form and be unwilling to negotiate for peace. It would be nice if Kadima and Likud were willing to seal themselves off from the insane and neo-fascist Yisrael Beiteinu party by forming their own majority, thereby demonstrating to the world that Israel rejects extremism, but that’s not going to happen. Instead, Israel will, one way or another, foreclose the possibility of a peace settlement for at least a year. What this means for American foreign policy is unclear, but it’s an enormous problem.

The US faces two options. The first option is to take the election as a sign that it ought not seriously pursue a negotiation to come up with a two-state solution anytime soon. The second option is to take the election as a sign that the US needs to put enormous pressure on Israel to attempt a peaceful settlement with Palestine, knowing full well this will lead to a collapse of the governing coalition (IF Kadima is able to form a majority in the first place), hoping that what emerges from such a collapse will be better than what exists now.

George Mitchell and Barack Obama have some serious thinking to do. Personally, I’m favorably inclined toward the latter option. The Israelis need to be pushed, and pushed hard, lest the entire concept of a two-state solution be abandoned by the Palestinians in favor of a push for full voting rights. The Palestinians know that the demographics are strongly in their favor, and once they start pushing for the vote, Israel (and the US) will be put in an extremely difficult position. If a new election is held in Israel soon enough, and it is clear to the Israeli people that the US needs (or at least really, really wants) Israel to be a credible negotiator for peace, then there might still be hope before the prospect of a two-state solution completely evaporates. But things are really getting seriously problematic here, and it would be helpful if an increasing number of Americans realize that.

Update: I may have spoken too soon about the non-feasibility of a Kadima-Likud coalition. Bloomberg reports that there’s still a chance of Netanyahu and Livni joining forces:

In the absence of a clear winner, Livni and Netanyahu already have begun to engage in talks with smaller parties to see who can forge a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Although Livni’s Kadima party won 28 seats, compared with 27 for Netanyahu’s Likud, a stronger showing by parties in accord with Netanyahu’s views gives him more natural allies in forming the next government.

Livni isn’t out of the picture: Netanyahu may be slow to embrace parties such as the National Union and Jewish Home because their advocacy of Israeli settlements in the West Bank would portray him as intransigent in the eyes of the international community, and limit his negotiating flexibility.

“Netanyahu doesn’t want to be a hostage to the right wing,” says Shmuel Sandler, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv. “That’s why he will ultimately try to bring in Kadima.”

This stands in contrast to things I’ve read elsewhere which have indicated that a unity government is unlikely. But if this is true, and Netanyahu and Livni reach out to each other and form a coalition, it’s not an exaggeration to say that they could be saving the state of Israel as we know it – there are still plenty of obstacles in their way, and the rightward shift in Israeli politics is still a gigantic problem, but it would at least preserve hope. One hopes the Obama administration is pushing as hard as it can for such a coalition.