Archive for January, 2009
Predictions for the early days of the Obama administration
1) Obama will go with a short speech, powerful, memorable, quotable speech which will be under 20 minutes long. JFK’s inaugural was 12 minutes long, and there is a connection. Ted Sorenson who wrote much of the Kennedy inaugural address, and who advises Obama, had help with his memoirs from a young man who is now one of Obama’s speech writers. And this year’s inaugural theme is centered on Lincoln, including using Lincoln’s Bible. Another historic analogy that will be quickly and often drawn is the comparison to Lincoln’s famous Gettysburg Address.
2) Obama wont rush dont ask dont tell. This will be pushed back out of the beginning of the agenda. While Obama might be catching some hell from the gay community about dont ask dont tell, he’s way to smart to let this derail his first 100 days the way it derailed Clintons. Too much political capital.
3) Stimulus will pass with broad bipartisan support, and many republicans will later regret their vote as they run low on popular ways to distinguish their record from Dems.
4) A few months stories will break about the ultimate policy pragmatist Rahm sparring with Congressional leaders about what to push when, he’ll be pushing to keep things centrist and post-partisan a while longer.
5) Michelle Obama will dazzle us all with her poise and grace. By the end of 2009, she will have a higher approval rating than even the Barackstar.
6) Neither Cuomo nor Kennedy will be the next Senator from NY.
7) Dow will be above 10,000 by July, but will dip below 7,900 again before April.
8) Jaybandit and I are having a weight loss contest, I will win.
The Dark Side of the Golden Era
Ah the postwar boom. America’s Golden Era . . .
Several years ago I learned that the United States government carried out a program of forced sterilization on Puerto Rican women during the post-World War II era. Initially, I was shocked and appalled. Why would the government of Puerto Rico with the support of the U.S. government force sterilization on women?
The primary motivation behind this was eugenic. Puerto Rico was overpopulated (it still is) and birth rates were high. The government couldn’t get people to emigrate fast enough and Uncle Sam was worried about another few million people in one of its colonies. Basically what happened is what happens in China today: poor women were tricked or coerced into having abortions or being sterilized. Sometimes it was the only family planning option offered. At others there was no consent.
This came crashing down to me about fifteen minutes ago when I got a call from my father. My grandmother, his mother, died about a year ago. My father had always been very close to her and so, when she died, he took some of her personal effects, mostly letters, back to California with him from New York. He was nearly in tears and bitterness clung to every word. He skipped pleasantries and simply began speaking.
“Sometimes” he said “I am so pissed off at what the government has done.” Read more…
The Reaction to the Burris Appointment
originally posted at Grumblebear
Mencken famously noted that “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.” As I recall, at the time he was writing about the advertising industry, but current events confirm its general applicability. Or maybe it’s not intelligence but ignorance that’s the problem.
The ignorance of the American public regarding our history and our government and how it operates has been thoroughly documented, and no better proof can be offered by the headlines of today than the reactions to Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich’s appointment of Roland Burris to fill the senate seat vacated by President-elect Obama.
I’m a huge fan of exploring all of the different shades of gray, but in this case there is no gray there. There is absolutely nothing to discuss, other than that Blago ought to have done the right thing and stepped aside to let Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn make the appointment. Period. The end.
The U.S. constitution requires that when a senate seat becomes vacant between elections, the governor of that state must appoint a replacement. Until Blagojevich is impeached by the House (accomplished!) and tried and convicted by the Senate, he is the Governor of Illinois. End of discussion.
As for the Senate declining to seat Burris, this question has also been asked and answered by the seminal decision rendered by the Supreme Court in the 1969 case of Powell v. McCormack. Harry Reid should know better!
Blagojevich is an incompetent, immature, unstable, unpopular failure of a governor. His popularity ratings were in the low teens before the federal indictment–the Illinois version of George W. Bush, but without W’s “charm.” I think it’s highly likely that he’ll be found guilty of any number of criminal acts when his case finally gets to court (if Federal Prosecutor Fitzgerald’s early leaking of the indictment didn’t screw the pooch for the prosecution). And, the standards for an impeachment trial being being different from and less stringent than for a criminal trial, there’s no question in my mind that he’ll be removed from office by the Illinois Senate.
But none of that has happened yet. In the meantime, like it or not, Rod Blagojevich is still the Governor of Illinois and still required to appoint a successor to Senator Obama, and the Senate is still required to seat his appointee.
Happy Birthday JayBandit
A big Happy Birthday to Urbanagora author JayBandit. He’s a happy, intelligent guy and beloved by all who don’t know him. He is a drummer and an avid music fan. He loves the Cubs and Bears as a crack addicted clown would do. He has been a close and loyal friend for many years. Jay sells nuclear designs and products to Iran, but assures me they can only be used in household microwaves. This sounds like an obit except it has present verbs instead of past verbs. JayBandit lives happily with his partner Romano in eastern Wyoming. That was a joke. He is white lightning on the drums – faster than the shutter of a camera lens with a +2 aperture setting.
Top 5 Musicians From London
…in honor of my first 24 hours in my new home, from best to worst (note that this is London-exclusive, not all of the UK):
- David Bowie
- The Rolling Stones
- The Sex Pistols
- The Clash
- Queen
Honorable mentions: Elvis Costello, the Kinks, Bloc Party, the Who
Me, in London
So I arrived last night in London, where I will be staying this semester as part of the Center for Transnational Legal Studies, which is a study-abroad program Georgetown organizes where students and professors from 11 countries around the world come together to study international law-related stuff. I’ll be taking classes in International Legal Institutions (focusing on the UN), International Humanitarian Law, and National Security & Human Rights (comparing the approaches of the US and the UK).
Anyway, I’ve started up a travel blog, which is located here. It will probably be mostly personal stuff where I post pictures of places I visit in London and around Europe, but if I write something travel-related that a broader audience might be interested in, I’ll cross-post it here. Just a heads up for those interested.
Why I am an overprotective dad
Or, how I became a paranoid who spends his time knocking down walls of his house and collecting assault rifles.
My daughter is 16 and a half. Yesterday I grudgingly agreed to let her ride in a friend’s car to go to a matinee movie. The thought scares me to death. We home school her because I think that the philosophy of our small school is you are either an adored, pampered, athlete, or you are garbage that will probably end up bad and knocked up and on drugs, and a drop out. My daughter is not a jock, but she is damn good kid, she likes computers and anime and video games, and I just don’t want her in an environment that treats her as a second class citizen. My wife went to a big school with something like a 5000 kid enrollment. I used to think that would be bad, but I have changed my thinking on this. The beauty of the big suburban school is that is seems like no matter what a kid is into, there is a peer group and a clique that shares the same interest.
She and her friends think I am an over-protective, paranoid, nut case (they are right – especially when it comes to my daughter. In fact one could throw the word extremely in front of each of those descriptors without fear of excess) Although compared to my neighbor I might not be the worst. My neighbor told me his daughter was out in her boyfriend’s car, in the driveway, “talking” for a little too long after coming home from a date. He put an end to the “talking” by walking out on his porch with his 12 gauge and letting one bang off up into the air. Apparently this is an effective way to break up “talking” and send a young suitor packing. I give it 9.8s for style points. Read more…
We were wrong about Chester
We all love human interest stories during the holidays, and we have a great one playing out on the floor of the Assembly Hall this year. Read more…