Illini Need More Free Throws
My grandfather observed a truth about Bobby Knight’s Indiana teams, they typically made more free throws than their opponents attempted. Our Illini, at least in big games, tend to shoot fewer free throws than their opponents make.
Tonight our Fighting Illini lost by 6 to #10 Michigan State. They were up most of the game, until they fell apart with about five minutes to play. Part of the loss was a few bad bounces and tough breaks. Also, Michigan State is one of the toughest venues in college basketball, tonight they extended their third-longest home winning streak to 28 straight games.
This year the Illini are a lot of fun to watch. They play extremely unselfish basketball and lead the Big Ten in assists. While our team has very good shooters, and our shooting percentage is much higher than last year, I’m disappointed that we seem to rely almost exclusively on jump shots. They could become a great team, but one key to winning is getting a little more aggressive about taking the ball to the basket.* This is especially important in the Big Ten conference. To win the Big Ten a team needs to draw fouls, get opponents into foul trouble, get to the free throw line and make free throws. And this team can make free throws, their problem is getting to the line.
Since many of our wins this season came from powder-puff-school-for-the-blind type teams, I’m going to focus on the big games, the kind of games that determine if a team is good, or if a team is “special.”
Note the Free Throw shooting in the following games, particularly the number of free throws attempted:
Dec. 2, Illinois lost by 2 to Clemson
Illinois: 7-8
Clemson: 6-13
When Illinois is making 87.5% of its free throws, getting to the line a few more times could have easily swung the game
Dec. 30, Illinois beats #9 Purdue 71-67 in overtime.
Illinois: 10-14
Purdue: 15-27
The stats don’t tell the full story in this one. In the first 20 minute half, Illinois shot 0 free throws, in the second 20 minute half they shot only 3. The other 11 attempts came in overtime.
(Illinois shot no free throws in the first half, three in the second half, and 11 in the 5 minute overtime)
Jan. 4, Illinois lost by 10 to #24 Michigan
Illinois: 2-3
Michigan: 11-14
That isn’t a typo. The Illini only got to the free throw line 3 times. In this game there was a noticable tendancy of the Wolverines to go one on one against our guards and get to the rim. They drew a lot of falls with these hard drives to the cup.
Jan. 15, Illinois beats #24 Michigan by 14
Illinois: 16-22
Michgan: 6-9
Illinois was a little more aggressive, especially Brock and Tisdale. Big Mike Tisdale pounded Michigan in the post and attempted 5 free throws, Brock’s drives to the basket were rewarded with 6 free throw attempts.
Jan. 17, Illinois lost by 6 to #10 Michigan State
Illini: 8-13
Mich. State: 16-23
Part of the problem was Tisdale’s lack of production, he wasn’t enough of a low post threat to draw many fouls. Also 2 of Illinois 13 free throws were from a Technical Foul on Michigan State’s coach. My favorite stat of the night was that the ref who gave Coach Izzo a T has given him T’s in 4 of the last 5 games.
*Admittedly, “taking the ball to the basket” doesn’t tell the story by itself, offensive rebounds, steals, shooting percentages, turnovers, officiating style, and other factors contribute to how much a team gets to the free throw line compared to the competition, but an aggressive offensive mentality is certainly an important factor.
Comment by James Prescott on 17 January 2009 at 9:36 pm:
This is not a reflection on the Illinois game plan as the truth of Big Ten officiating. Ask anyone who has followed Big Ten basketball throughout the decades…when a Big Ten team is at home, they get the benefit of the calls. The clemson game the differential is minimal, but for the Big Ten game you show, the majority is Illinois on the road. I was talking to a friend of mine who is a big Purdue supporter, and its just common knowledge that if you go into someone’s house you are not going to get the benefit of the doubt.
That being said, the MSU game was especially bad, on both sides of the ball for both teams. The crew did not call a consistent game. One minute they would call ticky tack, next minute they would ignore obvious fouls.
Comment by Joshua on 17 January 2009 at 11:13 pm:
Well, I think the disparity is more than just officiating swings, but that’s also a factor. There was a clear stylistic difference between Illinois motion pop a jumper offense and michigan’s attack the rim offense in the first game. If you get fouled enough on the road by pounding the post and driving to the basket, there’s only so much the refs can screw you over. Three free throws at Michigan. Only 3 free throw attempts in regulation at Purdue. It’s more than officiating.
Comment by Evan on 18 January 2009 at 9:30 am:
James, you are wrong, at least in how your analysis pertains to the Illini. Over the years, Weber’s teams have always been more prone to shooting jumpers. If you go through the scouting reports from 2004-present linked by “the magic bullet,” you’ll see that the Illini’s FTA/FGA percentage has almost always been below average. In fact, the only years in which it wasn’t one of the lowest rates in college basketball were the years Shaun Pruitt got a lot of PT.
Relatedly, Joshua’s analysis of this year’s squad is spot on. Because of the style of basketball and personnel on this team, I don’t see the situation changing.
There’s probably truth to what you or your friend say about home teams shooting more FTs (I’ve never looked up the numbers, though), but that is not the issue with this year’s Illini.
Comment by Joshua on 20 January 2009 at 1:16 pm:
It seems like a little more slashing to the basket would work well within the motion offense. Evan, what would you attribute this to? Is it driven more by the offensive model or more by the personnel?
Comment by Joshua on 26 January 2009 at 10:49 am:
From Illinois Loyalty today (quoting the trib):
Coach Bruce Weber was happy with more than McCamey’s scoring and seven assists. He pointed to the box score line that showed McCamey taking 12 free throws and making 11, both career highs.
“Demetri got his points, but the thing I liked — not all threes, he got to the free-throw line and he got into the paint,” Weber said. “If we can get to the free-throw line and get to the paint, we can have some success.”
Comment by Joshua on 29 January 2009 at 9:50 pm:
With about 4 minutes to play, Illinois has somehow only scored 36 points in the game so far. In this game so far the Illini are 4-5 from the free throw line. Minnesota is 15-24 so far. They are currently up 15 points, and have shot 19 more free throws.
Comment by Joshua on 6 February 2009 at 4:45 pm:
Last night in their loss to Wisconsin, Illinois shot only 4 free throws (they were 4-4). Wisconsin shot 13 (they were 8-13). When your shooting 32.8% from the field and 100% from the line, it make sense to drive to the cup and get fouled, rather than tossing up sloppy jumpers. It’s getting really frustrating to watch.
Comment by Rick Gill on 10 January 2010 at 12:08 pm:
how do you explain the Swini shooting 20 more last night on
the road?
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