Out of the chaos of the Blagojevich controversy, somehow we need a new U.S. Senator. Here I’ll explain some of the problems with Durbin’s special election proposal, and offer a few alternatives.
First I want to recommend the Capitol Fax Blog to all of our readers who are interested in monitoring the Blagojevich scandal, news on the IL Senate seat, and all of the fallout from this controversy. When I worked in Illinois state politics, Rich Miller’s Capitol Fax was the single best resource for the news of the day. It’s a great site to bookmark and check regularly if you’re interested in Illinois politics.
While most of these ideas are a little off the wall, and unlikely, this post was largely intended as a brainstorming session. I’m hoping some readers might add thoughts of their own.
Special Election
Durbin, and several other Illinois politicians, have called for a special election to fill the vacancy. In coming days we will probably see many who objected to a con-con for costs reasons, advocating a statewide special election. In addition to being expensive (estimated at up to 50 million dollars) a special election is too slow. It is in the best interest of the people of Illinois to appoint the new Senator before all the newly elected Senators are sworn in. The U.S. Senate is a body where seniority matters a great deal. I would rather our new Senator be more senior than all of the newly elected Democrats, rather than our new Senator be the most junior member of the U.S. Senate.
It could take a long time to pass legislation to hold a special election. As the aforementioned Rich Miller notes in his column:
The first problem which springs to mind is that Blagojevich, who was arrested Tuesday for allegedly trying to auction Obama’s vacant seat to the highest bidder, would have to sign the [special election] bill into law.
Our jailbird governor could sit on the bill for 60 days before he does anything. And he might just veto it, which would only prolong the process.
On his Blog Miller adds, “Plus, if he waits to veto the bill after the General Assembly adjourns sine die on January 14th, the bill dies.”
This does require changing state law, specifically, the ILGA would have to amend 10 ILCS 5/25‑8:
Sec. 25‑8. When a vacancy shall occur in the office of United States Senator from this state, the Governor shall make temporary appointment to fill such vacancy until the next election of representatives in Congress, at which time such vacancy shall be filled by election, and the senator so elected shall take office as soon thereafter as he shall receive his certificate of election. (Source: Laws 1943, vol. 2, p. 1.)
From a partisan standpoint, this is really dumb. It risks losing the seat to a Republican, perhaps someone like Mark Kirk. Hell, Jim Edgar today is talking about how he regrets not running for Governor in 2006. I’m not sure there are many Democrats who could beat Edgar in a statewide race for anything, Kirk still has a sizable war chest, and there are several other Republicans that could enter the race with reasonable winning chances. The Blago scandal will mobilize the GOP base, hurt dem turnout, and maybe help sway some independents with Blago=Whoever ads. (It would also be easy for any Republican to raise money in this climate from interest groups who want to make sure the GOP hold back cloture votes on issues like the EFCA.)
The counter argument is that any appointment by Blagojevich will be tainted and lose in two years because Blagojevich appointing him/her. Or a broader point, that with all of the corruption and bribery at issue here, the only path to legitimacy is a popular election. I think both of these points of view are too narrow.
Alternatives to a special election:
1. Impeach Blago’s corrupt ass and let Pat Quinn pick. This seems to me like the best approach, while he is still innocent at law until proven guilty, in the public mind he has lost all credibility, and no longer has the ability to effectively lead the state. He is unquestionably undeserving of the highest gift at the disposal of the people of Illinois. He has lost the public trust. We don’t need to wait for a guilty verdict to toss him.
There is no chance a Pat Quinn pick will be tainted by Blagojevich, because Quinn and Blago hate each other. Quinn had an answer at a press conference yesterday that illustrates just how bad their relationship is. He was asked when the last time he talked to the Governor was. I think many expected, “this morning” or “last night” or “a few weeks ago.” But he hesitated, and said “I think it was June…of 2007.” Wow. Good for Pat Quinn!
Some observers think that Quinn is too much of a wild man to be trusted with this pick. I love Pat Quinn. And I think he’s reasonable, and given this time of crisis, he could be be prevailed upon to make a moderate, broadly agreeable pick, especially if his agreeing to do so can expedite the impeachment process making him Governor. Michael Madigan and John Cullerton (new State Sen. Pres) could work out a short list of names with him, and move ahead with impeachment if he agrees to this, and likely several other conditions. Even if he wouldn’t compromise with Madigan and Cullerton on the pick, anyone Quinn would pick would likely be a good government populist, and we could sure use another one of those in the Senate, not to mention how much good it would do to have someone with as much public integrity as Quinn in the Governor’s mansion.
2. Create legitimacy for a Blagojevich pick. This is easier than it sounds. Madigan and Cullerton broker a limited deal on the pick where Blagojevich could publicly state that he will appoint a panel of Democratic leaders/ statesmen in Illinois, or a bipartisan group, to deliberate, interview candidates and make the pick. The group would have to be totally independent, and have the stature for the public to trust their independence, and he would have to agree to appoint whoever they pick. The right group of leaders, preferably those with limited ties to Blagojevich, could appear legitimate enough to avoid the Blagojevich taint. We do have some Democratic statesmen left, despite losing the great Paul Simon, such a panel could include: Dawn Clark Netch, Abner Mikva, Adlai Stevenson III, Alan Dixon, Glenn Poshard, etc.
As a pragmatic democrat, I am much more worried about losing the Senate seat now in a special election due to immediate backlash to the Blagojevich scandal than I am concerned that the Blagojevich taint will render any candidate, no matter how credible and independent, incapable of winning in two years. If the candidate is too tainted, they will lose in the Democratic primary. And it’s almost always better to hold the seat now, given how unpredictable politics has become. This proposal would be best if it wasn’t suggested by Blagojevich.
3. Blagojevich could pick someone with sufficient independent credibility that the U.S. Senate would have to seat them, possibly an elder statesman to hold the seat for two years until the next election. Again, Dawn Clark Netch, Abner Mikva, Adlai Stevenson III, Alan Dixon, and Glenn Poshard come to mind. Thought a few of these might not be healthy enough to serve. When the 2010 election rolls around the impact of the Blagojevich scandal wont be driving Republicans to the polls in a special election. While this approach sacrifices seniority for the next, hopefully longer term Senator, for the next two years Dems hold the seat, and are a step closer to winning cloture votes in the 111th Congress.
4. Blagojevich could briefly step aside and allow Pat Quinn to make the appointment. Assuming it becomes apparent in the next few days that the ILGA lacks the will to impeach Blagojevich, and that Blagojevich wont sign the special election law, but it is apparent any appointment he makes will not be seated, the IL Constitution may provide another way out of this mess. He may be able to use what Pat Quinn referred to as the “step-aside” provision for the very limited purpose of appointing a new Senator, but this would involve a hairy arrangement for reclaiming his office, because of the IL Constitution doesn’t specify a clear way for the Governor to reclaim his post, but instead leaves it to the ILGA to sort out.
From IL Constitution, Article V, Section 6:
(c) Whenever the Governor determines that he may be seriously impeded in the exercise of his powers, he shall so notify the Secretary of State and the officer next in line of succession. The latter shall thereafter become Acting Governor with the duties and powers of Governor. When the Governor is prepared to resume office, he shall do so by notifying the Secretary of State and the Acting Governor.
(d) The General Assembly by law shall specify by whom and by what procedures the ability of the Governor to serve or to resume office may be questioned and determined. The Supreme Court shall have original and exclusive jurisdiction to review such a law and any such determination and, in the absence of such a law, shall make the determination under such rules as it may adopt.
For this to work, the ILGA would likely have to agree in advance to make this arrangement, which would be untenable given the political will of the people to impeach Blagojevich. But given the time and expense of a special election, it might be a compromise, provided that Pat Quinn would make a pick the ILGA leaders could live with.
5. Allow Blagojevich to pick, but legislatively force his hand. This is a creative constitutional argument that could potentially work, but I haven’t seen it proposed anywhere. Blagojevich may resent complete surrender of the appointment power enough that he wont sign the legislation for the special election, and the timing and cost elements may give him cover to do so. The Governor’s power to appoint comes from the U.S. Constitution, Amendment XVII. The relevant section is:
When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of each State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.
The amendment specifies the legislature may empower the executive to make temporary appointments, but it doesn’t specify how the legislature may empower the executive to make temporary appointments. The legislature could change the IL statute to say, “the Governor may appoint a candidate chosen by the state legislature or call a special election” or “The Governor may appoint one of three prospective candidates chosen by the legislature or call a special election.” While its unlikely Blago would be willing to pass this law, but would veto the special election law, it may give him a way to save face by techinically retaining power, get the U.S. Senate to seat the choice, reduce the Blago taint, and avoid the cost and expense of a special election.
An unlikely scenario that could work, but wont happen:
Blagojevich could defer to the President-Elect’s choice. Assuming Blago would agree, Obama could save the day by asking the Governor to appoint someone, preferably someone who has no connections with Blagojevich or Rezko. At this point most would agree there is no risk of Blagojevich gaining anything from appointing whoever Obama wants. He is too toxic for Obama to help in any way, and Obama can state that he will never, under any circumstances, issue a pardon to Blagojevich or any of his associates.
While Obama may have a preference, and he certainly wants the appointment filled sooner rather than later so he has another vote to move his agenda early, and he would probably prefer not to risk letting a Republican win the seat, Obama should stay the hell away from this. he’s already called for a special election. Plus he doesn’t want to be the one to say no to a bunch of up-and-coming Illinois Dems. And the good government approach, consistent with his interest in protecting his message and image, is calling for a special election.
Authors note: In an earlier version of this post I made a silly mistake based on misreading the XVII Amendment too quickly. I briefly thought the ILGA could amend the IL law and give themselves the power to name the replacement, as the state legislatures did before XVII. I apologize for the error. Also, I may further amend this post if I have other ideas or decide any of these are completely impossible.
Comment by Andrew M. on 10 December 2008 at 10:03 pm:
Meanwhile, in the Governor’s house:
Attorney Sheldon Sorosky: Ain’t gonna lie guv, doesn’t look good. The feds are tightening the net, the press is screaming for blood and no food place that delivers will go near this place. You gotta do something.
Blago: You worry too much. Just wait a couple of days and this will all blow over.
Sheldon: WHAT? ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND?
Blago: Hear me out. All we need to sort this all out is a little grease in the gears.
Sheldon: Because that’s worked so well for you in the past.
Blago: I’m still here aren’t I? Still got the big office. I still get to decide who gets to be senator.
Sheldon: Well yeah, but nobody will go along with it. Anybody you pick would trip over themselves turning it down.
Blago: No, they would be serving their country! I would appeal to their sense of duty and responsibility. The feds are the real problem.
Sheldon: But they aren’t going away. You’ve got to resign Rod, it’s the only bargaining power you have. You can choose how this ends.
Blago: Now you’re talking like everybody else. I’m not going anywhere. Wait…I got it.
Sheldon: Got what?
Blago: How I can fill that seat and make this mess fade like the Cubs in April.
Sheldon: You can’t be serious.
Blago: I’m always serious. I’m going to appoint…Peter Fitzgerald as the next junior senator from Illinois. Eh? Eh?
Sheldon: …that might actually work.
Blago: Everybody wins! Kelly! Call a press conference… yes, right now. C’mon Sheldon, let’s go. This is foolproof!
Comment by Joshua on 10 December 2008 at 10:12 pm:
Andrew, That was awesome!
Comment by James Prescott on 10 December 2008 at 10:23 pm:
I refuse to believe that Blago has the humility or the sense of reality to do anything but try to fill the seat himself. I think he is truly delusional and will not try to dig himself out of this hole by giving up this power. This is Blago’s chance to make history, and he is not going to let anyone take that away from him.
Comment by Buck B. on 11 December 2008 at 12:43 am:
I agree. He clearly has one or more personality disorders.
Comment by kofi the zomfg do you really think you are clever on 11 December 2008 at 12:51 am:
Is Option Five for real? After stretch your lobbying muscles to explain why a special election would never, ever please don’t elect a Republican work you have the audacity to suggest a legislative change? Does your concession that it is an “unlikely scenario” that ‘won’t happen” suppress your own giggles? A special election is a more likely scenario that could happen, and you offer up this cup of shit? This is going to a special election and that’s the end of it.
Your Options One, Two, and Four are moronic for reasons not worth exerting the energy to press a key to explain.
Option Three is morally acceptable and probably the best option for this state. Adlai III (or, as you ignored, Edgar I) in that seat for two years and only two years would be like a small dose of aspirin to a chronically heart diseased state. Unfortunately, it won’t happen because the people you work for and support suck.
In closing I would like to quote you:
Authors note: In an earlier version of this post I made a silly mistake based on misreading the XVII Amendment too quickly. I briefly thought the ILGA could amend the IL law and give themselves the power to name the replacement, as the state legislatures did before XVII. I apologize for the error. Also, I may further amend this post if I have other ideas or decide any of these are completely impossible. lest you some day “amend” away this disclaimer.
Comment by Stubear on 11 December 2008 at 8:55 am:
I like 2, 3, and 4 but they all require that Blago pull his head out of his ass and do something responsible, and I don’t think it’s in his makeup.
I don’t see impeachment as an option if you’re concerned with timeliness. Nor is a special election an easy fix for the reasons you set forth and many more. It’s a hell of a mess.
My favorite option isn’t mentioned and also is impossible: Blago could say “Hey, I screwed the pooch and got caught. I’ve done things that have brought incredible shame on the office of Governor and I feel I owe it to the people of Illinois to resign.”
Fat chance!
PS: In considering worthy, notable Democrats, could we leave the name Alan Dixon off this list? If Dixon had an ounce of integrity he would have picked up his desk and moved it across the aisle back when he was a Senator. I’d personally like to see Glen Poshard nixed for similar reasons, but he at least voted Democratic except on social issues. Dixon was Ronnie Raygun’s favorite “Democrat.”
Comment by Joshua on 11 December 2008 at 9:15 am:
Kofi, the unlikely scenario was linked to the final scenario where Blago says he will defer to the will of the Pres-elect. I had some formatting problems late last night where I added a return between paragraphs and some didnt show up in the final post. Sorry if that caused any confusion. As to the authors note, I put it up as a show of honesty. If I was likely to amend it away, I probably wouldn’t put it up in the first place.
I do think a special election would work, I was just arguing that there could be potential alternatives. I agree that it may be the most likely scenario, but it does have some weaknesses.
Your reply was unnecessarily hostile. I really don’t think scenario one is far fetched at all. This was intended as a brainstorming session, as I said at the beginning of the post. I’d appreciate it if you had some suggestions to offer or something more interesting and thoughtful to say. Being insulting doesn’t make you persuasive
xoxoxo
Stu – fair point on Dixon, especially as a potential appointment, but having multiple former senators on a panel to pick the new senator adds credibility to the pick.
Comment by Brian Pierce on 11 December 2008 at 10:08 am:
Another idea: the state legislature could withdraw Blago’s salary. I don’t think Blago has any reason to stay in office beyond drawing a paycheck (it seems clear he’s got some financial troubles), so maybe taking that away would cause him to resign.
Comment by Martin on 11 December 2008 at 3:43 pm:
How about a holding action – send Adlai Stevenson back to Washington to serve out the remaining two years. He is 78 – but seems to be in good health. Stevenson would state that he would not run in 2010 – and let the campaign begin.
Comment by kofi the martin on 12 December 2008 at 1:56 am:
Joshua, just because my response is aggressive doesn’t mean it is insulting, nor does it mean it is unpersuasive. You defend Scenario One. I attacked Scenario Five. Granted I dismissed Scenario One (among others) but I never said it was implausible.
You beg that I offer suggestions or at least “something more interesting and thoughtful to say.” I apologize for expecting you to infer and for not explicitly highlighting my suggestions and thoughts. They were as follows:
1) The Democrats do not want the Republicans to gain a foothold in this State.
2) The Democrats will oppose avenues that may facilitate such a gain.
3) In a special election there is a strong chance that a Republican will win; Democrats will oppose such an election (your post will be exhibit a).
4) The best thing for the State would be the appointment of a widely accepted statesmen that would fulfill the remaining term and quietly step aside before the next election.
5) The previous proposal will not happen because it would threaten the seat, and the Democrats are more concerned about the power they possess than the people they lord it over.
xoxohth,
kofi
Comment by Brandon on 12 December 2008 at 11:55 am:
Kofi you are the most acerbic and hostile poster on the blog. You spew venom like a king scorpion and must be channeling that westboro baptist church guy.
Comment by Joshua on 12 December 2008 at 12:21 pm:
Quick responses to Brother Kofi:
“Joshua, just because my response is aggressive doesn’t mean it is insulting, nor does it mean it is unpersuasive.” Sure, those aren’t necessarily logically related, but it was both needlessly insulting and unpersuasive. And often being overly aggressive and insulting makes you less persuasive to unbiased readers.
“You defend Scenario One. I attacked Scenario Five. Granted I dismissed Scenario One (among others) but I never said it was implausible.” My defense of one was in your response to 1, which was “Your Options One, Two, and Four are moronic for reasons not worth exerting the energy to press a key to explain.” I admit that five was a pretty unlikely stretch, but as I said, this was only intended as brainstorming.
In response to your more clearly stated points:
1) The Democrats do not want the Republicans to gain a foothold in this State. – NO shit, thats why dems calling for a special election is really stupid.
2) The Democrats will oppose avenues that may facilitate such a gain. – Smart ones will, again, no shit.
3) In a special election there is a strong chance that a Republican will win; Democrats will oppose such an election (your post will be exhibit a). – I’m not sure what you mean by “a strong chance.” If the dem is truly independent from blago and has no rezko ties, I think the dem should still be more likely than not to win, apart from someone like Edgar running. This may be the strongest chance the GOP will get at the seat, but I’m not sure I’d characterize it as “a strong chance” but it’s too early to tell.
4) The best thing for the State would be the appointment of a widely accepted statesmen that would fulfill the remaining term and quietly step aside before the next election. — that’s one of the better paths out of this mess. In terms of raw power, the best thing for Illinois interests (in terms of having the most powerful junior senator we can) would be having someone who could be appointed right away, to get a jump start on seniority, who is independent from blago, and who could win statewide for a long time. I’m wild about moving to the back of the line again in two years. But a potential long term appointment would need to have unquestionably clean hands.
5) The previous proposal will not happen because it would threaten the seat, and the Democrats are more concerned about the power they possess than the people they lord it over. — I tend to think an immediate special election would be a bigger threat to the seat than an election in two years.
Comment by kofi the party first on 16 December 2008 at 10:30 am:
Illinois Democrats put the interests of their party ahead of the interests of their state. Class acts.
Comment by Joshua on 16 December 2008 at 12:14 pm:
I think your characterization is a little sloppy. Having an appointed Senator, assuming he could be appointed immediately, gives our junior senator a leg up in terms of seniority. With a special election, our junior senator will be the most junior member of the senate b/c it couldn’t be completed before the new term begins.