Comments on: Election Predictions

By: Brian Pierce

Brian Pierce — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 22:22:43 +0000

Update: it’s looking like Obama has also won one electoral vote from Nebraska, which divides its electoral votes proportionally based on congressional district. Which would make his electoral vote total 365, not 364. Jon and I still win that prediction, but – frustratingly – do not nail it exactly.

By: Brian Pierce

Brian Pierce — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:02:15 +0000

Recent calls: Oregon for Merkley (the Democrat), Missouri for McCain, North Carolina for Obama. There are still about 8 or so uncalled House races, so it’s not clear how that turns out exactly, but it’s looking like Democrats will only gain in the low-to-mid 20’s, making Diogenes the closest.

Still yet to be called: the Alaska and Minnesota senate races. It’s also unclear whether the Georgia race will go to a run-off, but it appears certain that Chambliss (R) will get the bigger share of the vote, which is what we are scoring our predictions on. Minnesota might not be decided for a couple weeks, so we might end up scoring that for the Republican, who is the apparent-but-not-certain winner. If so, and if Stevens pulls out a victory in Alaska (still unclear), then Ragnar nailed the Senate divide.

All told, I probably won’t post official scores until next week when things are a little more clear.

And Gordon – I posted some predictions for the transition a few days ago, scroll down a little on the front page and you can check them out. I might bump that post up and use it as an open thread, or feature it or something.

By: Gordon the Gnome

Gordon the Gnome — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:53:20 +0000

Are we about ready to call Missouri for McCain and North Carolina for Obama? That brings it to 364-174, an electoral vote victory for both Brian and Jon. Brian it appears would win out the tiebreaker with his popular vote guess.

Let’s do another prediction pool for Obama’s administration…I’d love to see all your thoughts on cabinet positions.

By: Joshua

Joshua — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:25:03 +0000

It might need adjusting if smith pulls it out in oregon, as of the time of my comment, it didnt look like they could pull it off

By: Diogenes the Dog

Diogenes the Dog — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 03:18:59 +0000

Don’t count on Ted Stevens being senator just yet. He’s holding a 4,000 vote lead, but there are still 40,000 absentee ballots as well as 9,000 early votes still to be counted.

By: Diogenes the Dog

Diogenes the Dog — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 03:17:13 +0000

Don’t call Ted Stevens yet. He’s got a 4,000 vote lead, but there are still 40,000 absentee ballots to be counted in addition to 9,000 early votes that have yet to be factored in to the total.

By: Buck B.

Buck B. — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:37:34 +0000

“Ragnar, who had a pretty bad night overall”

Quite the lovely understatement, both in terms of predictions and, I suspect, psyche.

By: Joshua

Joshua — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:55:29 +0000

I scored the first grid, WITHOUT including MN (and assuming that GA-Sen stays over 50% to avoid a recount), here is how many each of us called wrong:

Joshua -2
Brian -4
Billy -4
Gordon the Gnome -4
Chris -5
Diogenes -5
Brandon -5
Jon -6
Amanda -7
Bam-Bam -7
Melissa -7
Buck -7
Stubear -7
Tom -8
Ragnar -10

To rank our overall success in the predictions contest, we’ll have to factor in predictions in the other grid, many of which are still being sorted out.

At the moment there is a district (where i volunteered) where the margin between the 2 congressional candidates is only 6 votes! crazy times!

By: Brian Pierce

Brian Pierce — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:26:01 +0000

A lot of things are still up in the air at this point, but my electoral college and popular vote predictions are looking pretty good right now. There have been plenty of surprises in the senate, though – in Alaska, a state we didn’t even list because we thought it was so safe for the Democrat, Ted Stevens has been re-elected; and senate race in Oregon, a race we originally included but then deleted because everybody predicted it would go to the Democrat, is currently leaning in favor of the Republican (though this one has yet to be called as only 70% of precincts are reporting). The Minnesota race appears headed for a recount, so I’m not sure exactly how we’re gonna score that one. In any case, these results are going to make people’s Senate divide predictions all screwy – Ragnar, who had a pretty bad night overall, might end up with the closest prediction in that category.

We’ll see, though – some races have yet to be called.

By: Joshua

Joshua — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:21:48 +0000

So, BJP, who’s winning our predictions pool so far? Have any kind of running tally?