Election Predictions
For the past week or so, contributors, readers, and friends of Urbanagora have been compiling our Official 2008 Election Predictions. We put swing states, close senate races, and more into the mix. Now that the campaigning is over, go out and VOTE, then come back and check how we think it will all turn out.
First we have a set of predictions for various swing states, close senate races, the IL house race between Mark Kirk and Dan Seals, and Proposition 8 in California, which would eliminate the right to same-sex marriage in that state (”Yes” means banning marriage; “No” means keeping it). Note that for the Georgia senate race, if neither candidate there gets over 50%, it goes to a run-off election, but we here are just predicting who gets a larger share of the vote. Also, don’t worry if some of these names are unfamiliar – some of these people haven’t posted in ages or never at all, but we wanted to open up the doors to as many people as possible, because it’s fun. Ladies and gentlemen, the predictions (click to enlarge):
Next we have a set of exact predictions for the electoral college divide, the popular vote spread, the Senate divide (counting Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats), and the number of House seats Democrats pick up:
Finally, we opened up the floor to any random predictions people want to make, including who Obama’s replacement will be in the Senate should he win:
Brian
Obama’s replacement: Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Tom
Obama’s replacement: Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Other predictions: Economic actions by Obama administration significantly increase economic problems. End of the present-day GOP as we know it.
Amanda Palazzo
Obama’s replacement: Lisa Madigan
Billy
Obama’s replacement: Rod Blagojevich
Joshua
Obama’s replacement: Lisa Madigan
Other predictions: Treasury secretary announced within week after election. Blagojevich does not finish this term. Obama appoints at least two sitting Republican senators to his administration. If any states are too close to call, it will be Indiana or Missouri.
Ragnar
Obama’s replacement: Lisa Madigan
Bambenek
Obama’s replacement: Rod Blagojevich
Other predictions: Fitzgerald is “moved” if Obama wins. ACORN charges dropped. Obama will make no substantial policy movements, but will look to solidify power via the fairness doctrine, “reform” of the census, election law, etc. Blagojevich walks because Fitzgerald is moved.
Gordon the Gnome
Obama’s replacement: Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Other predictions: Lieberman will continue to caucus with the Democrats. Obama appoints at least two sitting Republicans from either the House or Senate to his administration.
Melissa
Obama’s replacement: Lisa Madigan
Brandon
Obama’s replacement: no prediction
Other predictions: Obama will run his administration on sunshine and puppy dogs and there will be sorrow no more.
Buck
Obama’s replacement: Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Other predictions: Act of domestic terrorism within the first two years of Obama’s administration.
Stubear
Obama’s replacement: Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Other predictions: Out and out sweep for the Democrats. Veto-proof majorities in both chambers. Total repudiation of the Republicans and neoconservative policies.
Diogenes the Dog
Obama’s replacement: Tammy Duckworth
Chris
Obama’s replacement: Lisa Madigan
Jon Monteith
Obama’s replacement: Jesse Jackson, Jr.
For the record, that’s 6 predictions for Jesse Jackson, Jr.; 5 for Lisa Madigan; 2 for Rod Blagojevich; and 1 for Tammy Duckworth.
* * *
So there you have it. We’re going to be scoring the first two sets of predictions once the results have all come in, and we’ll announce the results in a couple days. In the meantime, consider this an open thread to make your own predictions, make fun of ours, tell any Election Day stories you might have, or comment on the results as they come in. Enjoy!
Comment by kofi the omnipotent on 3 November 2008 at 11:32 pm:
Congratulations, Ragnar, for your accurate prediction.
Comment by Brian Pierce on 4 November 2008 at 12:39 am:
Just in: Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, which delivers the first election results in the nation (though no longer the first votes, thanks to early voting), has just voted for Obama 15 to 6. That’s the first time it’s gone to the Democrat since 1968.
Comment by Tom on 4 November 2008 at 1:06 am:
I expect to win on my predictions–the electoral vote is going to be very lopsided, even though the popular vote will be close. Had Hillary been the nominee and Obama the VP, they would have led McCain going into today by 20 points, minimum.
While I think the pollsters aren’t that far off, there are some folks in the know who believe that there’s a 5% pollster bias in favor of the Democrats. If this is actually the case, McCain will win the election. We should be able to tell very quickly if this is the case….
If Virginia, where the polls show a 4.4 point lead for Obama, goes for GOP, the McCain victory scenario will take place and Ragnar will have made the whole bunch of us look like dumbasses.
Me, it’s Alien vs Predator. There are some judges that need to be tossed out of office and some referenda to vote against, but I would no sooner vote for president than crawl across broken glass nekkid.
Whichever one of the ignorant idiots that wins, we’re in for an economic disaster leading to the coninued decline of an electorate evenly divided. The US will be dissolved within a generation, falling as fast as the Soviet Union did.
I love watching…decaying, decadent empires rock.
Tom
Comment by Kevin on 4 November 2008 at 1:11 am:
I missed Tom.
Comment by Buck B. on 4 November 2008 at 1:25 am:
We should probably have noted that there will be a runoff in the Georgia Senate race if no candidate receives a majority of the vote.
Comment by Joshua on 4 November 2008 at 1:33 am:
Recently a commission to pick the new Senator was announced. There are a lot of ways this commission could be structured. I’m not sure why blago did it this way, maybe he has the humility to see that whoever he picks will be less popular just because of Blago’s endorsement.
I could see a commission bought into making Blair Hull a Senator, or perhaps an establishment group backing Dan Hynes. I think Jesse, Tammy, and Lisa also stay viable picks. A “commission” could also legitimize a more off the wall pick. It’ll be interesting to see how this develops.
Comment by Brian Pierce on 4 November 2008 at 1:45 am:
I did note that in the second paragraph there, Buck. :) Since we want to be able to score things fairly soon, we’re just prediction who gets the bigger vote share, though I would like to say for the record that I think it IS going to be a run-off. At which point, Chambliss will hang on b/c Martin won’t have Obama’s coattails to ride any more and Chambliss will be able to effectively argue that Georgians shouldn’t give the Democrats a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority (unless Franken loses, then that argument is probably unavailable).
Comment by Buck B. on 4 November 2008 at 2:43 am:
Sorry. Honestly, I just skipped your no-doubt compelling prose and went straight to the picks.
Comment by Diogenes the Dog on 4 November 2008 at 9:22 am:
Tom: Alien vs Predator – I love it! I totally disagree, but still, excellent metaphor sir.
Brian: Thank you for doing this.
Where the whole filibuster-proof majority is concerned, I feel like Lieberman shouldn’t count. Even if he caucuses with the Democrats, that only matters when it comes to establishing a majority. He would still have to vote with them to obtain cloture on each issue. And when it comes to the more contentious votes, those most likely to incur a filibuster, I think the the Dems are going to find him voting with the opposition, especially when it comes to things like oversight and accountability (read: prosecutions). This is assuming the Dems have the grapes, something about which I have my doubts.
Comment by Todd on 4 November 2008 at 10:05 am:
Perhaps here would also be a good place to discuss voting philosophy? One of Tom’s comments made me want to do that :) “…but I would no sooner vote for president than crawl across broken glass nekkid”
In an ideal world, everyone would vote, and everyone would vote for the candidate they felt was the best one. However, as soon as one person recognizes that he can increase the power of his own vote by strategic voting, discouraging others from voting, voting multiple times, recognizing the broader impact of one’s vote (for instance, that a vote for a democratic senator is also sort of a vote for a democratic majority leader. Or recognizing that a vote for a republican president while there’s a dem majority in the senate and house is voting to make new legislature more difficult to pass) – well, that puts the rest of us in a difficult situation.
Once people start strategically voting, the rest of us must either simply accept that our votes aren’t as powerful as their votes or we must vote strategically ourselves. I choose to vote strategically, and that brings me back to Tom’s statement. In my opinion, a vote for a candidate is not a statement of support for that candidate, and so therefore it need not make you uncomfortable to vote even if you dislike the candidate you’re voting for.
Heck, I’m about to vote for Barr for president even though I don’t like him and think he’d be a terrible president. I would not vote for him if he actually had a chance to win. If it was close in IL, I’d vote for Obama.
Comment by Buck B. on 4 November 2008 at 10:40 am:
I’m not convinced the Democrats even need a filibuster-proof majority in the next Senate. The political landscape is going to look a lot different by this time tomorrow.
Kos has a thorough writeup about Democratic targets in 2010. If the outlook for Republicans continues to be even close to as bleak as it is now, it’s not hard to see the Democrats peeling off the occasional vote for cloture from someone looking to cover his ass in 2010.
Comment by Paul Richardson on 4 November 2008 at 11:15 am:
Interesting stuff. Do you have any aggregate data…the group’s consensus?
Re: Senate replacement. Do not expect Lisa to have interest in that slot. Not from Rod. No way, no how.
I can see Hynes potentially taking it, but it’d be a stretch. My money right now would be on Duckworth or someone similar (i.e. not a big name, obvious choice). Though to be honest, no one could accurately pick this with much certainty.
Comment by Brian Pierce on 4 November 2008 at 11:18 am:
Just got back from voting. It was fairly crowded, but everything was pretty orderly and well-organized, so it didn’t take me too long. It’s striking how polite and friendly everybody is, I think because it’s sort of impossible to be in a bad mood when you’re voting. I caught myself observing everybody else around me and realized just how radical what we were doing was. I didn’t know any of these people – people I might pass on the street every day and ignore – but together we were deciding on the leader of the free world. I hope that never ceases to amaze me.
Comment by Brian Pierce on 4 November 2008 at 11:52 am:
I gotta say I’m a little surprised that most of us seem to think Franken is gonna win his Senate seat. That race is probably the purest of toss-ups of any racy of any kind today. Yet we seem to be a lot more unsure about the senate races in Georgia and Mississippi than there.
Fun fact: I heard Chuck Todd note this morning that if Norm Coleman loses, he will have lost to both Jesse Ventura and Al Franken.
Comment by Billy Joe Mills on 4 November 2008 at 12:28 pm:
Live blogging Professor Ira Carmen’s predictions on the election:
Popular vote: 53-47% in favor of Obama.
Obama will win Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania (but it will be very close). McCain will fail to take a state won by Kerry.
“George Stephanopoulos is bologne and I’m an expert.”
“If Obama wins Indiana, we can all go to bed.”
McCain must win N.C., Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Florida is a toss up. Unless the alligators come in to vote, McCain will carry Florida. There is a large Jewish population in Florida and Obama is weak with the Jewish vote and will only get 65% of it. Obama will carry Ohio. McCain will carry N.C. by a thin margin. Virginia went for Bush but McCain cannot win it.
With Colorado, Iowa and Virginia going for Obama, it’s over. But, suppose McCain upsets in Pennsylvania, then it would counterbalance Virginia and Iowa (21 votes v. 20).
Electoral Vote: Obama 311 – McCain 227.
“I just don’t see how McCain can get there.”
Comment by JayBandit on 4 November 2008 at 12:50 pm:
Well, McCain has at least one vote in the not-so-great state of Pennsylvania!
Comment by Brian Pierce on 4 November 2008 at 1:42 pm:
Incidentally, Ira Carmen’s (and Diogenes’) electoral vote prediction of 311-227 is the most common result in FiveThirtyEight.com’s simulations – though just barely: 353 and my prediction of 364 are right behind.
Comment by kofi the guamanian on 4 November 2008 at 1:53 pm:
The election is all but over. In a stunning victory, Barack has secured all of Guam’s electoral votes. Did anyone here predict this result correctly?
Comment by Brandon on 4 November 2008 at 6:17 pm:
I find it interesting that Ragnar thinks the Republicans will once again lose the popular vote, but win the electoral.
Comment by kofi the congrats obama and his supporters, but don't delude yourselves into thinking america is suddenly 'united' on 4 November 2008 at 11:16 pm:
I’m a fan of newspaper cartoons. The funny ones and the political ones. I think this sums it up best: click
Comment by Joshua on 5 November 2008 at 12:21 pm:
So, BJP, who’s winning our predictions pool so far? Have any kind of running tally?
Comment by Brian Pierce on 5 November 2008 at 2:26 pm:
A lot of things are still up in the air at this point, but my electoral college and popular vote predictions are looking pretty good right now. There have been plenty of surprises in the senate, though – in Alaska, a state we didn’t even list because we thought it was so safe for the Democrat, Ted Stevens has been re-elected; and senate race in Oregon, a race we originally included but then deleted because everybody predicted it would go to the Democrat, is currently leaning in favor of the Republican (though this one has yet to be called as only 70% of precincts are reporting). The Minnesota race appears headed for a recount, so I’m not sure exactly how we’re gonna score that one. In any case, these results are going to make people’s Senate divide predictions all screwy – Ragnar, who had a pretty bad night overall, might end up with the closest prediction in that category.
We’ll see, though – some races have yet to be called.
Comment by Joshua on 5 November 2008 at 1:55 pm:
I scored the first grid, WITHOUT including MN (and assuming that GA-Sen stays over 50% to avoid a recount), here is how many each of us called wrong:
Joshua -2
Brian -4
Billy -4
Gordon the Gnome -4
Chris -5
Diogenes -5
Brandon -5
Jon -6
Amanda -7
Bam-Bam -7
Melissa -7
Buck -7
Stubear -7
Tom -8
Ragnar -10
To rank our overall success in the predictions contest, we’ll have to factor in predictions in the other grid, many of which are still being sorted out.
At the moment there is a district (where i volunteered) where the margin between the 2 congressional candidates is only 6 votes! crazy times!
Comment by Buck B. on 5 November 2008 at 2:37 pm:
“Ragnar, who had a pretty bad night overall”
Quite the lovely understatement, both in terms of predictions and, I suspect, psyche.
Comment by Diogenes the Dog on 5 November 2008 at 9:17 pm:
Don’t call Ted Stevens yet. He’s got a 4,000 vote lead, but there are still 40,000 absentee ballots to be counted in addition to 9,000 early votes that have yet to be factored in to the total.
Comment by Diogenes the Dog on 5 November 2008 at 9:18 pm:
Don’t count on Ted Stevens being senator just yet. He’s holding a 4,000 vote lead, but there are still 40,000 absentee ballots as well as 9,000 early votes still to be counted.
Comment by Joshua on 6 November 2008 at 7:25 am:
It might need adjusting if smith pulls it out in oregon, as of the time of my comment, it didnt look like they could pull it off
Comment by Gordon the Gnome on 6 November 2008 at 10:53 am:
Are we about ready to call Missouri for McCain and North Carolina for Obama? That brings it to 364-174, an electoral vote victory for both Brian and Jon. Brian it appears would win out the tiebreaker with his popular vote guess.
Let’s do another prediction pool for Obama’s administration…I’d love to see all your thoughts on cabinet positions.
Comment by Brian Pierce on 6 November 2008 at 12:02 pm:
Recent calls: Oregon for Merkley (the Democrat), Missouri for McCain, North Carolina for Obama. There are still about 8 or so uncalled House races, so it’s not clear how that turns out exactly, but it’s looking like Democrats will only gain in the low-to-mid 20’s, making Diogenes the closest.
Still yet to be called: the Alaska and Minnesota senate races. It’s also unclear whether the Georgia race will go to a run-off, but it appears certain that Chambliss (R) will get the bigger share of the vote, which is what we are scoring our predictions on. Minnesota might not be decided for a couple weeks, so we might end up scoring that for the Republican, who is the apparent-but-not-certain winner. If so, and if Stevens pulls out a victory in Alaska (still unclear), then Ragnar nailed the Senate divide.
All told, I probably won’t post official scores until next week when things are a little more clear.
And Gordon – I posted some predictions for the transition a few days ago, scroll down a little on the front page and you can check them out. I might bump that post up and use it as an open thread, or feature it or something.
Comment by Brian Pierce on 6 November 2008 at 4:22 pm:
Update: it’s looking like Obama has also won one electoral vote from Nebraska, which divides its electoral votes proportionally based on congressional district. Which would make his electoral vote total 365, not 364. Jon and I still win that prediction, but – frustratingly – do not nail it exactly.