Why McCain Will Win

by Chris of The Outside Report

Note: Chris is one of my favorite political bloggers and he has become a good friend in the past few months. I often link to his posts, and I’ve invited him to blog with us or at least cross post when we finish the Urbanagora redesign. Chris will soon be posting on why Obama will win the Presidential election in November. He hasn’t yet decided which one he thinks is the more valid argument

So who will win the Presidency in 2008? Though the polls and history are against him, the Phoenix will rise again and John McCain will be our 44th President. Why or how you ask? Ultimately, Barack Obama is just too liberal to win. The vast majority of Americans see Obama has a liberal, whereas most Americans perceive McCain to be a centrist. The United States is a right-of-center country and has never elected someone as liberal as Obama.

Even on issues that anger Americans such as Iraq, Americans may want to overwhelmingly leave, but they want to leave with a victory and not under chaos. Obama is perceived to be the candidate for withdrawal at all cost. As casualties continue to decline and stability comes to Iraq, Obama will have to answer why he chose political expedency instead of trying to work out a bipartisan solution to Iraq.

Second, culturally, Obama can be so elitist at times that he simply cannot appeal to working class whites in Ohio and Pennsylvania, the very people he will need to win. What about all those polls that show Obama well-ahead in Ohio and Pennslyvania? Its June and Kerry was ahead of Bush in Ohio two weeks before the election by 5% and we all know how that turned out. Undecideds will go with the “safe” pick and the vast majority of Americans see McCain as a safe pick.

Third, Obama has demonstrated no track record of being a change agent. The only change Obama represents is that of being an African-American, but Americans are going to want more change than changing the color of our President. McCain is the one that took on his own party on immigration, campaign finance reform, the Gang of 14, and even on gay marriage. The message to Americans is clear: If McCain is willing to stand up to his own party for what he believes is right then he’ll stand up for us.

In contrast, what has Obama stood for that is against his Party? McCain has demonstrated that he’s a bipartisan reformer and will have an ample record to point to whereas Obama in his brief years in the Senate seems like a typical Washington liberal.

Even looking at the electoral map, we see the strength McCain has in Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado. McCain starts off with Bush’s ‘04 map. While it is true that Obama is polling better than Kerry in some red states, McCain is polling better than Bush in Massachusetts, California, New York, Connecticut, and several blue states. Whereas the rest of his party loses by double digits, McCain’s popularity has endured the Republican brand decline. America looks poised to return the Democrats to Congress and they’ll want to make sure that the Democrats have a check against abuse and that check is McCain. McCain already is likely to win Florida and Texas and Obama will have to compete hard to win Virginia and Colorado (neither of which are not guarantees).

What about all Obama’s money? First, Obama doesn’t have all that much more money than McCain. They are at financial parity at the moment and Obama likely will not raise all that much more money than McCain will. Remember that this is still the “primary” season so both candidates can still raise funds. In the end it is true that Obama and the Democrats will likely outraise and outspend the Republicans, but to what end? Obama outspent Clinton 3 to 1 in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other places and Obama didn’t win any of those places. How will Obama compete against McCain’s $85 million in September when it matters?

Obama will lead in the polls but will will lose the only polls that matter. Once Americans see him standing toe-to-toe with John McCain in debates in October, the sheer cocky inexperience that represents Obama will shine. Obama will be caught flat footed as McCain throws out lines such as “I led for patriotism not for profit.” McCain will show his vast knowledge of world affairs while Obama will stutter and mumble his way to defeat.

McCain’s debate performances were consistent (and fairly good) whereas Obama’s debate performances were all over the place. Some debates he’d do good, but others he seemed like a deer caught in headlights. When it mattered though, Obama has never been able to close the deal. He beat Hillary by default, but he won’t have caucuses, and individual state voting to rely on to win him the Presidency like it won him the Primary. McCain will be our President.