Thoughts following McCain’s Speech
An email from Augur:
I wanted to share a few quick thoughts in response to McCain’s speech tonight.
McCain’s speech had a few moments of brilliance. The best was when he said people may see in him an imperfect servant of his country and then he had a nice turn of phrase (that escapes my memory) about how he will always be her servant. A nostalgic appeal to honor and valor should be a central theme of McCain’s campaign.
The speech as a whole was a catastrophic failure in terms of its overriding message. His theme was “That’s not change we can believe in”, a line he repeated probably ten times in the speech. His speech was extremely negative. I came away with it wondering what McCain was for. Obama is like Hillary, direct negative attacks from an opposing candiate don’t really land. McCain should always be positive - especially given his reputation as a hot-tempered contrarian, and leave the negative stuff to surrogates.
The main goal of the speech, apart from being a hit piece on Obama, was distinguishing himself from Bush. That’s why he held the event in New Orleans. That message was partially lost b/c of the negativity about Obama. He could have painted himself as a happy warrior, with optimism to rival Obama’s, but with a greater degree of pragmatism than the green Obama and the incompetent Bush
He did briefly say kind words about Hillary; he should have done that throughout the speech. The more of that he does, the more its going to hurt Obama when he refuses to put Hillary on the ticket. Obama does not want her on the ticket and starting tomorrow the press focus will soley be on whether or not there will be a joint ticket. If I were Obama I would name a VP right away and put that to bed and talk about how he’s looking forward to working with her in the Senate and letter (sic) her lead on health care.
She put a slick tactical move on him calling the press conference to say she’s open to being VP. She wants to preempt a “cold offer” to increase the pressure on him to make an actual offer.
In terms of delivery, McCain was awkward; his smiles looked forced and fake. He had some prompter slips and is very weak at delivering a canned message, although he’s decent extemporaneously and you could tell when he strayed from the script - he started to look natural, but so is Obama.
As an Obama fan, I’m looking forward to these two being on a stage together. Obama will exude vigor, energy and enthusiasm. McCain looks tired and awkward, and like he missed his window.
Comment by kofi the barbri sucks on 3 June 2008 at 10:47 pm:
McCain should always be positive - especially given his reputation as a hot-tempered contrarian, and leave the negative stuff to surrogates.
McCain has gone out of his way to chastise the negative comments. So far out of his way that the conservatives who are upset with his presence are further upset by what they perceive as an extremely soft approach to the campaign. So when McCain does go negative . . . won’t it resound?
Comment by J. Prescott on 4 June 2008 at 8:22 am:
McCain’s greatest strength is that he is not Obama. I don’t think he should run away from it. While it is true that Obama has many admirable qualities for a political campaign, McCain has to be McCain.
McCain needs to run his own race, and if he starts seeking to show he has the rhetoric “club” in his “bag,” he is going to go off message and hurt his chances.
McCain is an off the cuff speaker, with all the risks that go with it. His speech was off the prompter, and that will hurt him. McCain is at his best in town hall meetings and talk shows responding to questions. Trying to revamp McCain as a non-curmudgeonly guy isn’t going to work. Yeah, maybe some of McCain’s speeches have sounded canned, but you know what, some of Obama’s have not sounded so great either to those of us who have not drank the Kool Aid.
Mark my words, Obama is going to be forced to stray from his soaring rhetoric into the nitty gritty of his policies. And there he will get dinged. A lot. Foreign policy (adopting Kennedy’s disastrous “we don’t fear talking to anyone, unless its Krushchev in Vienna, and then we get slapped around like we stole something”), economic policy (yeah we negotiated these trade treaties, and yeah if we try to “renegotiate” we are going to get hosed, but screw it, our dollar is declining and I am nowhere near good enough to explain how the economy works, so thank god I have the audacity to hope).
This is not a slam dunk for any party. But McCain doesn’t win by trying to play a conservative Obama. If he plays it right, McCain may take that “enthusiam” by Obama and make it look like naivete.
And for the love of God, if I have learned anything from the West Wing, its that McCain needs to get his ten word answers down, specifically one for “why this won’t be Bush III,” “War on Terror,” and “Economy.” If I were working for McCain, I would be in a basement somewhere generating these things now.
Comment by Brian on 4 June 2008 at 11:13 am:
Prescott,
You say Obama will get “dinged” on policy, and I understand that YOU disagree with a lot of Obama’s policy proposals, but do you really think that’s true in terms of where most of the American people are at? I mean, you take a shot at Obama for his talk of diplomacy, and you suggest that Obama doesn’t know what he’s talking about when it comes to the economy, but in terms of where the American people are at, isn’t there pretty strong evidence that they WANT a president who will talk to our enemies and that they tend to trust Democrats on the economy more than Republicans?
Comment by kofi the if we talk to them before we go to war, are we still at war? on 4 June 2008 at 11:28 am:
“I’ll do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything,” Obama told the pro-Israel lobby at a conference in Washington, only hours after securing his party’s nomination.
Later in the speech, which was frequently punctuated by the crowd’s rapturous applause, he said: “I will always leave the threat of military action on the table to defend our security, and that of our ally Israel.”
See the best thing about Barack, is that even if he wins the Obamaniacs aren’t getting what they think they’re getting. The heartbreak isn’t going to come during at Denver or during the general. The heartbreak will come in 2010 when Barack is leading us into Iran. Or Pakistan.
Comment by J. Prescott on 4 June 2008 at 12:01 pm:
Brian -
There isn’t really compelling evidence that the voters trust Obama more on foreign policy or economics than McCain. To the contrary, there is some evidence the opposite is true.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Forty-four percent (44%) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 40% prefer Obama. On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 51% have more trust in McCain while 37% prefer Obama.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080604/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_exit_polls
Compounding their challenges: McCain conceded months ago that the economy was not his strong point, while Obama has run weakest with Democratic voters who say they’ve been hurt by the troubled economy, a growing group.
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1315
However, more voters continue to say that McCain is about right in his approach to foreign policy and national security issues than say that about Obama (51% vs. 43%). The view that Obama is not tough enough on foreign policy has not receded since earlier in the year. More than four-in-ten (43%) say that Obama is not tough enough on foreign policy, which is identical to February.
Now, I will admit that Pew’s numbers still suggest Obama is better suited to the economy, but I believe (and I grant you this is mostly conjecture than anything else) that if McCain can explain the Obama plan in terms that the general populace can understand, as opposed to Obama’s version of “it will help the working class trust me,” those numbers will go down. Hillary didn’t do a great job attacking Obama’s platform because it resembled hers in a lot of ways. McCain won’t have any such hang up.
Here is the thing. Having read all of Obama’s policies I admit that personally I find most of them appallingly bad. But if McCain can clearly and concisely summarize the Obama plan and its effects on individuals, those numbers on the economy should shift.
Comment by J. Prescott on 4 June 2008 at 12:40 pm:
Also, a ten word answer for why McCain won’t be Bush III:
“No Karl Rove, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, or Bush advisors.”
It also has the added benefit of being true.