I've gotten a couple of emails from people asking me whether the PPP poll showing Obama up 45-43% was real. The one thing I've learned from watching polls over the last several years is to look at the baseline poll number for the poll compared to other polls and look at the number of undecideds. Basically, in virtually every recent poll of Pennsylvania, including Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Quinniqupac, Obama's numbers range from 41%-45%.
Much like New Hampshire and virtually every other state, it is Clinton's numbers
that greatly vary, ranging from 53% to 43%. What does this mean? It means that
PPP, as a telephone poll, needs to push its undecided voters more. Obama is
probably pulling 43% of the Pennsylvania vote, but Hillary is still likely
pushing the mid-50%. The problem is Hillary's supporters are notoriously hard to
poll.They appear fickle with telephone pollsters but in fact, they almost never
change their mind. When Hillary is "under" attack, they are less likely to say
who they support, but ultimately they support her. This has been true in every
state. Obama pulled "even" with Hillary in Texas and in Ohio, but ultimately,
her voters always come back. Remember that when reading these types of
polls.
Labels: Barack Obama, Outside Report, politics, polling analysis
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