Open thread to discuss the economy
by Augur • Mar 18th, 2008 at 6:52 pm • 13 comments
Tom, Jaybandit, and Billy are having a spirited debate over email about the state of the economy. I’ve been a passive observer, but I’m spooked because every morning the super hot Erin Burnett has more bad news. Apart from some modest artistic exaggeration on my part, their positions are expressed below:
Billy: “Trust the great golden God of the market. Everything is going to be great. it could only be better if the market were wholly unregulated!”
Tom: “We are all going to die, or at least we’re all most seriously fucked – raid the banks and hide your money in your matresses”
Jaybandit: “Tom is wrong, and only thinks he’s right because he’s old[er].”
Comment by Brian on 18 March 2008 at 7:15 pm:
To paraphrase a character from the West Wing: that’s a real Algonquin Round Table you’ve got going there.
Comment by Augur on 18 March 2008 at 7:31 pm:
I cant decide if i should leave my 401K investments alone, or move them to a safer fund. I have about 40% in international funds right now, and I’ve been getting hit pretty hard.
Any advice?
Comment by JayBandit on 18 March 2008 at 8:18 pm:
Don’t “quote” me with false quotations “Augur”.
Comment by augur on 18 March 2008 at 8:21 pm:
Jay – i said i was taking artistic liberties…
where do you think the economy is headed
Comment by tet on 18 March 2008 at 9:22 pm:
Yeah, Jay didn’t take a position anywhere like the one you quoted.
Jay’s more like, “the economy was just fine when I bought my house a year ago and it was a good investment. What do you mean the banks loaned money to people that they figured would default, that’d lose them money? Oh, they did it and then sold the loans, I see.”
Tom
Comment by JAL on 19 March 2008 at 12:39 am:
Fake economies are fun! Imagine what we would do with a real one that produced useful goods and services. Ah, that’s too much work, nevermind.
Comment by thetodd on 19 March 2008 at 1:06 am:
My gut feeling is that we’ll suffer for a while, but we won’t destroy our economic systems.
Tet, I know Augur is caricaturizing your views here, so there is a good chance I am putting some words in your mouth here, but I am curious how you reconcile expectations of substantial technological progress with economic disaster both over the same timespan.
To me, it seems the rate of technological progress is closely tied to our confidence in and the utility of our economic system.
For instance, functioning credit markets are needed so that up-and-coming technology firms can borrow the money they need to get started.
Functioning equity markets are useful for the same reason – people with good ideas can sell off their future returns in exchange for money right now to get their ideas off the ground.
Comment by JayBandit on 19 March 2008 at 6:20 am:
How about people stop putting words in my mouth and let me speak for myself. If I choose to say nothing, that is my prerogative.
Comment by erik on 19 March 2008 at 7:22 am:
READ SHOCK DOCTRINE
and tet i actually had a response post half-composed on the taxi thread which i can still post or send to you if you like, but it felt like things were going in circles. your fault, not mine.
Comment by tet on 19 March 2008 at 4:34 pm:
Todd, tech processes are not necessarily good for the economy.
Let’s say that when the first H-bomb was set off, it ignited the Earth’s atmosphere, as a few physicists feared. That would have about done it to the entire world economy in one fell swoop.
If nanotechnicians accidentally release some “gray goo” that eats every bit of iron available on the surface of the earth, it would also be a disaster.
I’m a technoptimist, but you, too, read the reports from those who are working to prevent disasters like above.
I hestitate greatly at connecting the tech sector too closely to markets because they have been shown in the past (with the agriculture, industrialization, and communitcation revolutions) to be capable of creating discontinuities which completely change the laws of economics.
If the Singularity is as important as some of us think it will be, there may not even be economics on the other side, since economics as a science is based upon the assumption that there’s scarcity. If scarcity is completely removed from the human condition, what then?
Tom
Comment by Augur on 19 March 2008 at 7:15 pm:
I think it also hurts certain service sectors, like mine. Before west law I could bill a ton for a short research memo that now I can only bill a couple hours for. Consequently, lawyers need much bigger case loads to sustain business. Also, they have to raise fees, and that makes it harder for young lawyers to get training time b/c people dont want to pay 300+ an hour for law firms to train their young associates
Comment by TimmyLittle on 27 October 2010 at 2:26 pm:
I’m trying to figure out how I’m going to fund my next semester, since apparently my parents aren’t going to. I’ll get student loans if I have to but I already have messed up credit (long story) and my options are pretty limited. I’m looking into grants and scholarships but I’m hoping someone can point me in the right direction.
I just signed up with these guys: scholarshipzone.com
They look like the most legitimate that I’ve come across so far, and I’ve found a bunch of scholarships to apply for (they help with the process). Does anyone have any experience with this sort of stuff?
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