March 4th Predictions Thread
Chris at the Outside Report now has a prediction thread up. It goes all the way to the convention. It’s worth a read, as Chris is consistently rock solid.
As for my thoughts — I am worried about Obama. This is more based on a gut feel, than rational analysis, but Clinton seems to be gaining momentum in the last few days. I’m not sure if it’s enough to temper the aggressive climb Obama has shown in the last few weeks, but this is a predictions thread, so stands must be taken, even if it leads to my falling flat on my face:
Clinton takes Rhode Island and Obama takes Vermont.
Clinton takes both Texas and Ohio popular vote. The early calling of one of the two states, coupled with a better caucus strategy/trickery by the Clinton campaign either brings her very close or wins the TX caucus. Despite losing the TX popular vote, Obama either ties or wins TX on pledged delegates.
My rationale: (1) Democrats are fickle. We quickly get buyers remorse, and while we’ve pretty much picked Obama, we’ve waited in line at the cashier of democratic primary politics, and we’re just about to check out. We fear the buyers remorse that may be coming. (2) Hillary’s been winning the pop culture war with SNL, crazy as it sounds, I think her Daily Show visit tonight could be big. (3) Despite Obama’s solid performance in the last debate, people started asking about the media handing this thing to her, crazy as it sounds SNL validated the Clinton campaign’s complaint, and people trust fake news as much or more than real news. (4) The Obama NAFTA blunder will be on every paper in Ohio tomorrow, probably Texas too, but that’s a big part of my rationale for Ohio.
If I’m wrong, here’s my best guess at why: (1) Incredibly high OH turnout, and the bad turnout modeling in Ohio polls. (2) Some reports suggest Obama may be up in TX early voting, which shouldn’t be the case given recent trend lines. (3) Not enough time for the NAFTA story to really sink in around Ohio, particularly among blue collar dems who really care about NAFTA, but might not always reliably read the news. (4) Polling models on Latinos in TX, way off. (5) My gut about her momentum is a few days ahead of reality, because of inside-the-beltway-think.
Assuming I’m wrong, if Hillary wins either OH or TX, she will stay in the race through at least Pennsylvania. The next two contexts should favor Obama, but after that, as Chris mentions, could be rough waters. And what will it say about Obama that he couldn’t land his knock out punch after his massive spending spree leading up to March 4th.
Comment by Augur on 3 March 2008 at 9:16 pm:
One thing I meant to explain but didn’t is why Obama wins TX delegates but loses primary vote. Answer: the black areas are more delegate rich b/c of past primary participation.
Comment by thetodd on 4 March 2008 at 9:26 am:
Prediction market data reflects your concerns (those who don’t care can ignore the rest of this comment).
Since the beginning of March, Obama has fallen from 86% to 80% to win the nomination.
In the Ohio market, he’s fallen from 45% to win to about 20%. In Texas, he’s fallen from around 80% to win to under 60%. The individual state markets are thinly traded, so I wouldn’t take the exact numbers seriously, but 25% drops are still significant.
Comment by Anonymous on 4 March 2008 at 9:32 am:
what ohio nafta blunder?
Comment by Augur on 4 March 2008 at 1:14 pm:
Thanks Todd!
Anon: an obama aid reportedly met w/ someone from the canadan govt and said obama’s comments re NAFTA in the last debate were just political posturing, and then the Canadian PM’s office leaked the memo