Archive for February, 2008

The following is a post by a good friend of mine who has excellent political instincts and observations. He sent me this email, and I thought it was good enough that I asked if I could share it with the Agora if I used a pen name. I also redacted the names of the specific campaigns he was on, to further protect his identity, but that doesn’t really interfere with his analysis. He hits on an important question, what has made Obama’s campaign so masterful.

~ by the Man in Black

So I was reading Ben Smith’s blog at Politico and came upon this posting: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_branding.html#comments. It made me realize that Obama’s campaign may just be the best run political campaign of our lifetimes. Everyone is on message; very few mistakes are made; the branding is perfect (that really is a huge deal, btw); the candidate is getting better and better at the things he was doing poorly earlier in the campaign (responding to attacks, for instance). I mean, really, think about it: who, in the past 25 years, has run a campaign as focused and well managed as Obama?

While all that’s nice to think about, it begs the question of why is Obama’s campaign the best in two decades? It can’t just be the candidate, can it? Or the strategists? It’s not that David Axelrod (or David Plouffe for that matter) is the Democratic Karl Rove. For a while, I couldn’t put my finger on a reasonable answer to this question. Then, I came up with this thought: has Obama’s campaign been so successful because the people working for him actually believe in him? I know this theory seems a bit naive, but hear me out. As both of you know, most campaign staff and volunteers believe in winning; they believe in the party. Few staffers or volunteers, I believe, actually, honestly believe in the candidate. At least for me, I’ve worked on multiple high stakes federal campaigns, for prominent officials. For each guy, I liked working for him because he was a Democrat, but I never was a huge fan of any of the candidates. They were all fine, but I liked politics and campaigning; I worked for the experience, not for the candidate.

It seems to me that Obama’s staff and volunteers (and supporters) don’t feel that way at all. These people believe in Barack Obama. They believe in what he can do and they totally buy in to the theme of his campaign. These people aren’t working for Barack because they’re hoping for a job in the administration, they’re working for him because they believe in the promise of an Obama administration. And, because they believe in him and buy into the theme of the campaign, they STICK to the theme of the campaign and don’t do anything to harm it. No one leaks, no one goes off message. A reality, I believe, that exists because few of Obama’s staff and volunteers are in it for themselves.

Look, I’m sure there have been other candidates like Obama in the past – Bobby Kennedy immediately comes to mind – and I’m sure their campaigns were similar to his. But, I don’t believe there has been a candidate like this in my political lifetime. And, of course, all of the “Obamaniacs” could be totally delusional and the campaign may well fall apart once the Republican attack machine starts in full bore — I doubt that, but it’s possible. In the end, though, my bottom line is this: As a campaign, Obama’s has been quite amazing to this point, and we, as political junkies, should all feel lucky to be witnessing it.

The following is a post by a good friend of mine who has excellent political instincts and observations. He sent me this email, and I thought it was good enough that I asked if I could share it with the Agora if I used a pen name. I also redacted the names of the specific campaigns he was on, to further protect his identity, but that doesn’t really interfere with his analysis. He hits on an important question, what has made Obama’s campaign so masterful.

~ by the Man in Black

So I was reading Ben Smith’s blog at Politico and came upon this posting: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_branding.html#comments. It made me realize that Obama’s campaign may just be the best run political campaign of our lifetimes. Everyone is on message; very few mistakes are made; the branding is perfect (that really is a huge deal, btw); the candidate is getting better and better at the things he was doing poorly earlier in the campaign (responding to attacks, for instance). I mean, really, think about it: who, in the past 25 years, has run a campaign as focused and well managed as Obama?

While all that’s nice to think about, it begs the question of why is Obama’s campaign the best in two decades? It can’t just be the candidate, can it? Or the strategists? It’s not that David Axelrod (or David Plouffe for that matter) is the Democratic Karl Rove. For a while, I couldn’t put my finger on a reasonable answer to this question. Then, I came up with this thought: has Obama’s campaign been so successful because the people working for him actually believe in him? I know this theory seems a bit naive, but hear me out. As both of you know, most campaign staff and volunteers believe in winning; they believe in the party. Few staffers or volunteers, I believe, actually, honestly believe in the candidate. At least for me, I’ve worked on multiple high stakes federal campaigns, for prominent officials. For each guy, I liked working for him because he was a Democrat, but I never was a huge fan of any of the candidates. They were all fine, but I liked politics and campaigning; I worked for the experience, not for the candidate.

It seems to me that Obama’s staff and volunteers (and supporters) don’t feel that way at all. These people believe in Barack Obama. They believe in what he can do and they totally buy in to the theme of his campaign. These people aren’t working for Barack because they’re hoping for a job in the administration, they’re working for him because they believe in the promise of an Obama administration. And, because they believe in him and buy into the theme of the campaign, they STICK to the theme of the campaign and don’t do anything to harm it. No one leaks, no one goes off message. A reality, I believe, that exists because few of Obama’s staff and volunteers are in it for themselves.

Look, I’m sure there have been other candidates like Obama in the past – Bobby Kennedy immediately comes to mind – and I’m sure their campaigns were similar to his. But, I don’t believe there has been a candidate like this in my political lifetime. And, of course, all of the “Obamaniacs” could be totally delusional and the campaign may well fall apart once the Republican attack machine starts in full bore — I doubt that, but it’s possible. In the end, though, my bottom line is this: As a campaign, Obama’s has been quite amazing to this point, and we, as political junkies, should all feel lucky to be witnessing it.

Make sure you didn’t miss today’s well-written editorial in the Daily Illini by perennial campus all-star Dan Bolin.

Dan says in part:

Late Monday, I learned that the University administration had been working with one or two members of our nine member SEC to add language to this referenda statement. While other referenda have supplemental language submitted by sponsors, never as an undergraduate or as a law student at this University have I seen the administration impose their own language on a referendum question. The administration’s language states: “The result of this referendum question is not binding on the University of Illinois Board of Trustees, the body legislatively charged with oversight of the symbol.”

In the wake of William F. Buckley, Jr.’s death, Andrew Sullivan posted this video clip of part of a debate between Buckley and Noam Chomsky on American imperialism that is interesting on its own and is particularly fascinating purely in terms of both the civility and the intellectual heft that went into this discussion. Would that these sorts of debates were more common today:

Anyone interested, please post your thoughts as the debate runs as comments to this thread.

I predict Hillary will be aggressive then passive, she’ll start out really negative, try to get Obama to fall into a policy oriented trap, she’ll frame her attacks as self-defense, rather than as an outright attack. If it doesn’t go well with the crowd, she’ll try to pivot to a love fest, but in the end she will question his ability to be commander in chief. I would feel vindicated if she used the line I’ve been predicting, “a commander in chief doesn’t get to vote present.”

Wouldn’t it be great if Obama borrowed Reagan’s line “There you go again” when she gets all ridiculous-distorto-hateful with him. I predict he responds forcefully, without counter attack, and then says the natural “this is the same old politics…turn the page…bring people together instead of tear each other apart…lift America up rather than tear each other down, etc.” Either that, or if he’s really on, he’ll use dismissive humor, like when he called her earlier attacks silly.

Early in the campaign I attended a Hillary Clinton fundraiser where Bill Clinton spoke. President Clinton was on his game that night, and the most important thing he said was “every campaign I ever made about myself, I lost. Every campaign I made about the people, I won.”

This is a telling quote, and a good diagnosis for Hillary’s diseased message. Hillary is at her best when using a populist message, and on several occasions on this blog I’ve highlighted when she started shifting up that message and using populist themes, thinking she was finally going to get it. It’s also telling that the tired talking points she continually reverts to are about her, not about the people: I have 35 years of experience, I am ready to lead from day one, I have made change, etc. Contrast that with Obama’s messages: when ordinary people come together than can do extraordinary things, we can change this country, yes we can, we are the change that we seek, etc.

If anyone in the Agora is considering donating to Obama, if you do, I’ll make a matching donation (within reason) to the DSCC or to a targeted house race. He is almost to 1,000,000 donors. If you haven’t donated yet, I’d encourage you to make even a modest donation. If you’d like to take me up on this, email me at inspired.augur@gmail.com.