Big Barackracy
If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, I’m going to write another post entitled “Big Barackracy.” This will be a clever, at least in my delusional mind, shorthand way of attacking Obama for his big government policies. I wanted to post this now to secure my place in the world as the inventor of this phrase and in the hopes that the McCain campaign will notice and hire me as a speech writer.
My recent desire to be McCain’s speech writer is inspired by my jealousy of the young fellows who write Obama’s speeches.
Lastly, I’d like to note that at the moment McCain is winning South Carolina by a few percent with about 50% of precincts reporting. I believe that if McCain wins tonight as it looks like he will that he will go on to beat Giuliani in Florida and then go on to win the nomination over Romney. The Giuliani rope-a-dope, late primary strategy looks at the moment to be a failure. The media simply hasn’t given him enough attention to give him any momentum going into Florida and February 5th.
UPDATE: McCain has been declared the victor in South Carolina. I’ve been waiting years to see McCain get on this track. I think he’s the favorite in the general against either Obama or Clinton.
Comment by J. Prescott on 19 January 2008 at 8:51 pm:
Barack is down 100 delegates, which granted, could be made up in the time remaining, but is still pretty significant.
Well, it looks like that McCain will win S.C. (at time of post, with 83% reporting, McCain was up 3% on Huckabee with Thompson and Romney trailing relatively distantly.) Is it possible that a Republican nominee will be revealed before the Democratic one? Obama is going to hang in for the long haul, especially since he won more DELEGATES than Hilary, and that John Edwards is crazy. Must have been all those fumes from the mills. Romney has won two primaries, but one of them (Nevada) can be ignored as much of his strong showing there is supposedly due to a strong Mormon turnout. Thompson got third, but a weak third, so he should bow out. Per the results I am seeing, Giuliani got 2(?!?!) of the vote in SC. I think to make up for his poor showing in all of the early states, Giuliani would have to dominate the Florida primary, and I don’t think he can, especially since McCain leads every major poll (although most are within the statistical average). So I think Giuliani bows out after florida with a Giuliani win. That leaves Romney, Huckabee, and McCain, going into Super Tuesday, with Romney with 3 wins, Huckabee with an early win, and McCain with three major wins. McCain has the momentum, the national polls, and the belief that only he can get the independent vote. With Huckabee tottering, and Romney beaten up, McCain could have this effectively wrapped up by Super Tuesday.
I don’t see an early resolution happening in the Democrat primary. Edwards might bow out earlier (I think he will), but if Edwards throws his support to Barack Obama, I could see the Democratic Convention being a brawl with hard feelings between Clinton and Obama afterwards (which I think we are already seeing).
If my prediction is the case, I think that this gives McCain extra time to secure the Republican base which is necessary in the current climate. Meanwhile, Clinton and Obama beat each other up. If the Republican nomination is settled by early February, and the Democrat nomination not until much later, does that give a McCain candidacy the advantage going into the national, regardless of who the Democratic candidate is?
Comment by tet on 19 January 2008 at 10:50 pm:
Current delegate count as of tonight (after South Carolina):
Republicans–need 1191
72 Romney
38 McCain
29 Huckabee
08 Thompson
06 Paul
02 Giuliani
01 Hunter
Democrats–need 2025
210 Clinton
123 Obama
052 Edwards
001 Kucinich
Somehow, Billy Joe, Augur, Brian, I don’t see a clear win in there anywhere for either McCain or Obama. Mitt’s got 1.75 times as many delegates as McCain does. I especially find the fact that Ron Paul, who was seen as having no chance at all, has three times as many delegates as Giuliani who is representing liberal Republicans, of which, I believe, there are three nationally.
Now historically, since 1980, no Republican candidate has won the nomination without winning South Carolina. However, I believe that the Reagan Democrats and evangelicals have left the coalition, so this truism may have seen its day.
This is going to be great fun. It’s like being a marsupial watching the big tyrannosauri and triceratops fighting, not realizing that the asteroid of change is about to drop in the Gulf of Mexico. They’re all obsolete and there are only a few who realize it so far.
Bwah-ha-ha. They’re governmentisauruses. I expect both conventions to be brokered. I was wrong in my September predictions to that extent. Still figure it’ll be Hillary and Mitt.
Tom Trumpinski
Comment by Anonymous on 19 January 2008 at 11:04 pm:
If McCain really wants to seal the deal, he just needs to toss on the t-shirt and tie as per spring ‘99. BJM will most likely be the only one to understand the reference.
Comment by J. Prescott on 19 January 2008 at 11:48 pm:
Tom -
The gain for McCain is in momentum going into Florida for the delegates and what a win says. SC was supposed to be the bastion of Christian Conservatism and McCain was supposed to be unable to overcome the Christian conservative base. Huckabee was supposed to win going away. McCain split self-identified Republicans with the Christian candidate Huckabee, and won independents and those that were “dissatisfied with the Bush administration,” which is the majority of the country. So a lot of what people were identifying as McCain’s weaknesses among the other candidates has as least been assauged.
Also, Florida is in play this week so the “HUGE” deficit you alluded too should be erased by next week. Florida is a winner take all state with 57 delegates. McCain should get a bump from his victory, and most polls, as in with the exception of one, has McCain over Giuliani with Romney in a tie for third. McCain wins Florida, Giuliani is out, with most of his support swinging to McCain, McCain takes the lead in the delegate race. Thompson’s supporters will be a wash as he will be bailing in a few days. That leaves McCain in the lead with delegates and with momentum into Super Tuesday, in a narrowed race between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee. McCain is not a certainty at all, but I predict McCain will be in the driver’s seat by Super Tuesday, with the majority of the substantive races up to that point to him.
As for Barack Obama and his chances, I do believe that this race could conceivably go the distance to the convention. I am not willing to write off Obama yet, but Clinton could very definitely win.
Comment by Billy Joe Mills on 20 January 2008 at 2:37 am:
Mr. Anonymous,
Yes I do fondly recall this reference, but I dearly wish to know who you are??? Regardless of your identity, thanks for the laugh.
Billy
Comment by Allan Niemerg on 20 January 2008 at 4:05 am:
“Big Barackracy” is clever, but is there anyone running, with the exception of Paul, who could even reasonably be expected to take on the size of government?
Even if there was, it’s hard to see much success. The government is metastasizing and it is not clear where it will stop.
Comment by tet on 20 January 2008 at 3:38 pm:
Prescott, there’s something to add to your analysis about South Carolina–John McCain is a member of the Silent Generation. No one from that generation has ever been elected president, and I hold that there’s something in the character of that particular set of cohorts that preclude them from doing so.
(The Presidential generations went directly from the WW2 generation to the Baby Boomers. Those Silents who were nominated during the 80s were soundly trounced during the electoral process.)
In 1980, George Bush won the South Carolina primary handily. It did not deliver the nomination to him because the northeastern capitalist wing of the GOP could not succeed against the Reagan Democrats in the South.
I think that with the breaking-away of the liberty-faction and the evangelicals from McCain, his victory is less than meaningful, also. The center is a barren, barren place to be looking for votes. In addition, momentum is becoming less and less important because the various states of the republic are becoming more and more different–what is important in one area is not necessarily important in another.
Florida is an interesting place in that is quite possibly the only place where the Silent generation’s, and, to a lesser extent, WW2 generation’s votes are going to be critical. The polls may be more accurate there, since they’ve not really be affected by the movement of people onto the ‘Net. Florida is so different from the rest of the country, however, that I am inclined to disregard their votes completely in the final analysis.
Tom Trumpinski
Comment by JAL on 21 January 2008 at 1:25 am:
In your dreams! Giuliani will win Florida and Illinois.
Comment by tet on 21 January 2008 at 11:26 am:
I repeat. I have a higher chance of winning the Republican nomination than Rudy Giuliani does.
Tom Trumpinski