Comments on: Prediction Time http://www.urbanagora.com/2007/12/prediction-time-2.html An exchange of ideas from thinkers spanning the spectrum Wed, 18 Jan 2012 21:26:43 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.2 hourly 1 By: Evan http://www.urbanagora.com/2007/12/prediction-time-2.html/comment-page-1#comment-4849 Evan Tue, 01 Jan 2008 03:08:00 +0000 http://www.bridgeportstudios.com/urbanagora/?p=517#comment-4849 Has Giuliani really become that much of a non-factor? Serious question, I don't follow this stuff nearly as closely as you guys do. Doesn't seem like it, simply looking at the odds that theTodd reported in his post.<br/><br/>I do get the vibe that Romney is going to emerge as the frontrunner. I have to wonder to what extent he'll get the John Kerry "flip-flop" treatment in the general election; that seemed to be exploited to no end during the last election. Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention, but I haven't heard a lot about that for awhile.<br/><br/>Re: Pakistan, I have to agree that is a bad situation for Obama. His foreign policy stances have not been portrayed favorably by the media, IMO. For all the favorable press coverage he gets, I recall the media seeming to harp on his foreign policy views from the debates as "gaffes." Has Giuliani really become that much of a non-factor? Serious question, I don’t follow this stuff nearly as closely as you guys do. Doesn’t seem like it, simply looking at the odds that theTodd reported in his post.

I do get the vibe that Romney is going to emerge as the frontrunner. I have to wonder to what extent he’ll get the John Kerry “flip-flop” treatment in the general election; that seemed to be exploited to no end during the last election. Maybe I haven’t been paying close enough attention, but I haven’t heard a lot about that for awhile.

Re: Pakistan, I have to agree that is a bad situation for Obama. His foreign policy stances have not been portrayed favorably by the media, IMO. For all the favorable press coverage he gets, I recall the media seeming to harp on his foreign policy views from the debates as “gaffes.”

]]> By: Augur http://www.urbanagora.com/2007/12/prediction-time-2.html/comment-page-1#comment-4844 Augur Mon, 31 Dec 2007 21:04:00 +0000 http://www.bridgeportstudios.com/urbanagora/?p=517#comment-4844 Brian - I mostly agree with your scenario, but I don't see Edwards dropping out as early as you do. <br/><br/>Also, I think he'll get a smaller boost in NH than you predict b/c of the dead heat of Iowa plus the shortened primary schedule. By "dead heat" I mean, even if he wins it'll be by a small enough margin that the story will be Hillary finishing third. The talk will be about how close Obama was to Edwards rather than focusing on Edwards winning, and that Hillary was actually third, even if she is just a hair behind those two. Could the media possibly be sick of Bill Clinton?<br/><br/>In the GOP race I cant you minimize Rudy a little too much, but I still think Romney will be the victor. Huckabee is probably the smartest politically of the GOP candidates, look how much free air time he got out of the floating cross despite his lack of cash. It'll be interesting to see what happens next. The viral Chuck Norris ad is another example of the creative way he is getting more out of less cash. Reminds me of the famous LBJ ad w/ the girl counting daisy petals before the Nuke goes off, they only had to pay to run that once, even though they had all the cash in the world, you can get a lot of free play out of a clever enough ad.<br/><br/>Rudy has some vicious criminal politicos behind him, I think he'll make Romney take some body blows that'll ultimately help Obama win the general. However if Hillary is the candidate, I think Romney will eat her alive b/c she'll have to switch messages so dramatically from her experience message b/c he's stronger on that message.<br/><br/>Folks I'm talking to on the ground in Iowa think Hillary's organization is a lot stronger and her caucus machine is in better shape than the Obama or Edwards machine. Obama probably has the most gung ho staff, they had a massive flood of out of state volunteers. Brian – I mostly agree with your scenario, but I don’t see Edwards dropping out as early as you do.

Also, I think he’ll get a smaller boost in NH than you predict b/c of the dead heat of Iowa plus the shortened primary schedule. By “dead heat” I mean, even if he wins it’ll be by a small enough margin that the story will be Hillary finishing third. The talk will be about how close Obama was to Edwards rather than focusing on Edwards winning, and that Hillary was actually third, even if she is just a hair behind those two. Could the media possibly be sick of Bill Clinton?

In the GOP race I cant you minimize Rudy a little too much, but I still think Romney will be the victor. Huckabee is probably the smartest politically of the GOP candidates, look how much free air time he got out of the floating cross despite his lack of cash. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next. The viral Chuck Norris ad is another example of the creative way he is getting more out of less cash. Reminds me of the famous LBJ ad w/ the girl counting daisy petals before the Nuke goes off, they only had to pay to run that once, even though they had all the cash in the world, you can get a lot of free play out of a clever enough ad.

Rudy has some vicious criminal politicos behind him, I think he’ll make Romney take some body blows that’ll ultimately help Obama win the general. However if Hillary is the candidate, I think Romney will eat her alive b/c she’ll have to switch messages so dramatically from her experience message b/c he’s stronger on that message.

Folks I’m talking to on the ground in Iowa think Hillary’s organization is a lot stronger and her caucus machine is in better shape than the Obama or Edwards machine. Obama probably has the most gung ho staff, they had a massive flood of out of state volunteers.

]]> By: tet http://www.urbanagora.com/2007/12/prediction-time-2.html/comment-page-1#comment-4842 tet Mon, 31 Dec 2007 19:22:00 +0000 http://www.bridgeportstudios.com/urbanagora/?p=517#comment-4842 I think that the situation in Pakistan is very, very bad for the neocon-type Republicans. After all, there are two possible explanations for what happened to Bhutto:<br/><br/>1) Our friend and ally knocked her off.<br/><br/>2) The organization that we've been trying to wipe out since 2001 (two more years than it took to defeat the gigantic Japanese and German war machines) is still strong enough to shake the world.<br/><br/>I could have told you (and did to those who were around me) that Bhutto was a walking dead woman from the moment that the US encouraged her to return. She was much too dangerous to the status quo to be allowed to live. You guys really didn't see that coming?<br/><br/>I am still holding to the belief that Romney's got the nomination for the Republicans. Huckabee is leading at the moment, but he is totally and completely broke.<br/><br/>Paul is going to do surprisingly well in New Hampshire, maybe even coming in second. Fox Network is seeing him as such a danger to its pro-war, pro-big government "conservatism" that as of yesterday, they weren't going to allow him into their next debate.<br/><br/>Hillary's going to win, even if she has to plant a teenage girl in Obama's bed. You are underestimating the degree of "ends justify the means" that she's capable of.<br/><br/>The November election? If anyone but Paul is the Republican candidate, Hillary will get almost all of the electoral votes.<br/><br/>Tom I think that the situation in Pakistan is very, very bad for the neocon-type Republicans. After all, there are two possible explanations for what happened to Bhutto:

1) Our friend and ally knocked her off.

2) The organization that we’ve been trying to wipe out since 2001 (two more years than it took to defeat the gigantic Japanese and German war machines) is still strong enough to shake the world.

I could have told you (and did to those who were around me) that Bhutto was a walking dead woman from the moment that the US encouraged her to return. She was much too dangerous to the status quo to be allowed to live. You guys really didn’t see that coming?

I am still holding to the belief that Romney’s got the nomination for the Republicans. Huckabee is leading at the moment, but he is totally and completely broke.

Paul is going to do surprisingly well in New Hampshire, maybe even coming in second. Fox Network is seeing him as such a danger to its pro-war, pro-big government “conservatism” that as of yesterday, they weren’t going to allow him into their next debate.

Hillary’s going to win, even if she has to plant a teenage girl in Obama’s bed. You are underestimating the degree of “ends justify the means” that she’s capable of.

The November election? If anyone but Paul is the Republican candidate, Hillary will get almost all of the electoral votes.

Tom

]]> By: Hanno http://www.urbanagora.com/2007/12/prediction-time-2.html/comment-page-1#comment-4841 Hanno Mon, 31 Dec 2007 19:19:00 +0000 http://www.bridgeportstudios.com/urbanagora/?p=517#comment-4841 If Pakistan implodes, we get Clinton-Giuliani for the general. If it doesn't, we get Obama and Huckabee in Iowa. Momentum from Iowa carries Obama and Romney (despite Huckabees surge) in New Hampshire. Michigan goes to Clinton because no one else is campaigning there and Romney because of daddy. Nevada predictably goes to Clinton and Giuliani finally gets a break. Obama edges Clinton out in South Carolina for much the same reasons Brian stated and Huckabee takes the Republicans. Florida goes to Clinton and Giuliani because Huckabee is short on cash by this time. The Super Duper Tuesday Primaries will be an utter mess though I think it's very interesting to note that the more face time voters have gotten with Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, the less they like Clinton. It's only in states where Clinton has either a) been the only one campaigning, or b)hasn't had much face time with voters that she is clearly leading. If Pakistan implodes, we get Clinton-Giuliani for the general. If it doesn’t, we get Obama and Huckabee in Iowa. Momentum from Iowa carries Obama and Romney (despite Huckabees surge) in New Hampshire. Michigan goes to Clinton because no one else is campaigning there and Romney because of daddy. Nevada predictably goes to Clinton and Giuliani finally gets a break. Obama edges Clinton out in South Carolina for much the same reasons Brian stated and Huckabee takes the Republicans. Florida goes to Clinton and Giuliani because Huckabee is short on cash by this time. The Super Duper Tuesday Primaries will be an utter mess though I think it’s very interesting to note that the more face time voters have gotten with Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, the less they like Clinton. It’s only in states where Clinton has either a) been the only one campaigning, or b)hasn’t had much face time with voters that she is clearly leading.

]]> By: J. Prescott http://www.urbanagora.com/2007/12/prediction-time-2.html/comment-page-1#comment-4840 J. Prescott Mon, 31 Dec 2007 18:52:00 +0000 http://www.bridgeportstudios.com/urbanagora/?p=517#comment-4840 Brian's reasons are perfectly reasonable based on the domestic criteria as is, and maybe even likely, but I wonder what will happen if Pakistan gets more out of hand. Bhutto's 19 year old son is running in his mom's stead, which is trouble, and now there is talk of delaying the election to "investigate." This is a country with nukes, and if Pakistan were to devolve into a civil war, foreign policy in a broader sense, as in not just Iraq, becomes an issue. McCain, I think, has an advantage in foreign policy over his opponents, and Obama's foreign policy of lets buy the world a coke, and talk it over might not seem as appealing in the face of a more specific crisis. Would further problems in Pakistan be sufficient to change the outcome? I dunno. But it would have an effect. Brian’s reasons are perfectly reasonable based on the domestic criteria as is, and maybe even likely, but I wonder what will happen if Pakistan gets more out of hand. Bhutto’s 19 year old son is running in his mom’s stead, which is trouble, and now there is talk of delaying the election to “investigate.” This is a country with nukes, and if Pakistan were to devolve into a civil war, foreign policy in a broader sense, as in not just Iraq, becomes an issue. McCain, I think, has an advantage in foreign policy over his opponents, and Obama’s foreign policy of lets buy the world a coke, and talk it over might not seem as appealing in the face of a more specific crisis. Would further problems in Pakistan be sufficient to change the outcome? I dunno. But it would have an effect.

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