Archive for December, 2007

The the Illinois smoking ban is effective January 1, 2008. Will this impact your life? I’m hoping it will force my chainsmoking mother to cut back and that none of the doomsday stories for mom and pop restaraunts will pan out. I wonder if there will be any tobacco shops that allow people to bring their own bottles popping up that are adjoined to liquor shops. Maybe they will charge for buckets of ice. Where there is a will there is a way.

The the Illinois smoking ban is effective January 1, 2008. Will this impact your life? I’m hoping it will force my chainsmoking mother to cut back and that none of the doomsday stories for mom and pop restaraunts will pan out. I wonder if there will be any tobacco shops that allow people to bring their own bottles popping up that are adjoined to liquor shops. Maybe they will charge for buckets of ice. Where there is a will there is a way.

We all knew this post was coming eventually, right? The holidays are almost over, in a few hours it will officially be an election year, and the Iowa caucus is a few short days away. So what do you say we all show off how completely out of step we are with the good people of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and perhaps others by predicting the outcome of what has been a long and grueling primary campaign?

It’s a moment we should all savor, given how rare it is for both parties’ nominations to be so unpredictable, thus doubling the extent to which we can all make fools of ourselves. We’ve done this before with the 2006 midterm elections, so we should all know how it works: everybody who cares to participate (and I hope that is all of you) post a comment predicting the outcome of the primaries for each party. Be as specific or as general about how that outcome comes about as you want. And of course do it before the results come in from Iowa on January 3rd (though if this post is still up toward the top of the page by then, feel free to come up with new predictions after the Iowa results are in).

Okay, here’s mine:

The Democrats

For a while I thought (along with everybody else, it seems) that the Republican race was by far the more difficult race to predict, but now I actually feel like the Democratic race is (even as the GOP race is still quite difficult) because of how totally unclear it is how Iowa will come out, and how much potential Iowa’s results have to influence the outcomes of the later states. So while I have what I think is a coherent rationale for my predictions for the GOP race, this one really is pretty much just a total stab in the dark (and is therefore likely the result of more than a little wishful thinking), but it basically relies on the fact that the media seems to really be pulling for Obama and will do him some favors if it gets the opportunity, as follows:

1. Edwards wins the Iowa caucus, with Obama in second and Clinton in third, but all are very close to each other. The media reports Edwards’ victory as a result of his long presence there and his strong organization, but focuses mainly on how much of a blow it is to the Clinton campaign to come in third.
2. Clinton dips further in New Hampshire than she already has, Edwards surges (in part due to his victory in Iowa and also because a lot of the 2nd tier candidates drop out and much of their support goes to him), but not enough to come in more than a stronger-than-expected third place, with Obama pulling ahead of Clinton by between 5 and 10 points. The media reports this as a big victory for Obama, and uses the fact that Edwards almost beat Clinton for second place as a further blow to the Clinton campaign.
3. Clinton wins Nevada, but in an as-expected fashion, thus not boosting her campaign much. Obama second, Edwards third.
4. Obama does much better than expected in South Carolina, even better than whatever the most recent polls show, because a significant portion of the black vote breaks for him after seeing that he has a real shot at winning. Clinton in second. Edwards comes in a fairly distant third and drops out soon after.
5. By February 5th, polls show that a majority of Edwards’ support has gone to Obama, who has already jumped in polls as a result of his strong performance thus far, making him the frontrunner by a small but not insignificant margin. The media continues to go crazy for him, making a big deal out of how Clinton had once seemed inevitable and is now struggling to stay alive. Obama wins the large majority of the February 5th states, and it’s all over. Clinton concedes defeat and Obama wins the nomination.

The Republicans

My fear in this one is that just as I think the media will do its best to boost Obama if it can, it will also do its best to boost McCain, who is, for whatever reason, the media’s wet dream of a candidate, and who is in fact doing some surging right now in some of the early states and in some national polls. However, I don’t think even the media can give McCain what he needs, and I think establishment Republicans will ultimately be more comfortable falling behind Romney as the anti-Huckabee candidate instead of McCain. So I think it will go like this:

1. Huckabee and Romney basically tie for the Iowa caucus, with Romney a point or so ahead of Huckabee. McCain comes in third, followed by Thompson, followed by Ron Paul, followed by Giuliani. The media reports this as a blow to Huckabee, but still portrays him as a surprising out-of-nowhere threat; reports Romney as doing well but being damaged given his long presence and organization there; and pays more attention to McCain’s third place finish than McCain deserves. Giuliani is embarrassed by coming in behind Paul. Nobody cares about Thompson.
2. Romney wins New Hampshire, with McCain a stronger-than-expected second. Giuliani and Huckabee basically tie for third, with Paul close behind them, and Thompson way behind them. The media pays a lot of attention to McCain’s second place finish, but this is still a victory for Romney. Huckabee finishing even with Giuliani keeps him alive.
3. Romney wins Michigan, Huckabee second, McCain third.
4. Romney wins South Carolina, edging out Huckabee, with McCain edging out Thompson for third. This is a clear victory for Romney, and the media finally decides it can’t save McCain. Thompson drops out.
5. Giuliani, badly damaged by a lack of attention up to this point, drops significantly in Florida. He comes in a close second to Romney, with Huckabee right behind in third, and McCain a distant fourth. The media reports this as a severe blow to Giuliani, a surprising victory for Romney.
6. February 5th comes along. Both Huckabee and McCain are in bad financial shape and don’t have the resources to mount strong campaigns. The fanfare over Huckabee has also decreased dramatically over time as people start to realize he doesn’t really know what the hell he’s talking about. Giuliani drops dramatically in national polls, McCain drops, Romney surges. Romney wins a large majority of the February 5th states, Huckabee wins a few but not enough, and the race is over. Romney wins the nomination.

One of my favorite things about the end of the year is the slew of top 10 lists that come out in various media outlets. I always have a tendency to feel inspired to create top 10 lists of my own before I realize that I have not been anywhere near exposed enough to all of the various things I would be listing (i.e. movies and music). I mean, I might have seen 10 movies that came out this year, not all of which were good, and my familiarity with all or even a great deal of the albums of 2007 is just as limited. So it’s sort of difficult to say what the ten best movies of the year were, for example, when I haven’t seen a whole slew of movies that would probably have ended up on my list if I had seen them.

But I still like making lists. So, instead of creating some sort of definitive Top 10, I’m just going to list some stuff I liked a lot, roughly in the order of how much I liked them, but specifically noting some of the things I have not yet but would like to see/hear and which I suspect would have made it on my list if I had only took the time to see/hear them.

And, yes, I know hardly anybody who reads this blog cares what I think about these subjects and that this is pretty much just for my own enjoyment. But, I’d be more than happy to hear what movies, music, etc. you all enjoyed from the past year, so please share. Anyway, here are my…

Favorite Movies That I Have Seen So Far from 2007
1. No Country for Old Men
2. Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
3. The Lives of Others
4. Into the Wild
5. The Bourne Ultimatum
6. Michael Clayton
7. Zodiac

Movies That If I Saw Them Would Stand a Decent Chance of Being Among My Favorites from 2007
1. There Will Be Blood
2. Juno
3. The Savages
4. Sweeney Todd
5. Once
6. Atonement
7. Gone Baby Gone
8. Persepolis
9. Charlie Wilson’s War
10. Knocked Up

Favorite Albums That I Have Heard So Far from 2007
1. In Rainbows, Radiohead
2. Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga, Spoon
3. Wincing the Night Away, the Shins
4. The Reminder, Feist
5. Neon Bible, Arcade Fire
6. Night Falls Over Kortedala, Jens Lekman
7. Cross, Justice
8. Graduation, Kanye West
9. Boxer, the National
10. All Hour Cymbals, Yeasayer
11. Blackout, Britney Spears
12. I’m Not There, Various Artists

Albums That If I Heard Them Would Stand a Decent Chance of Being Among My Favorites of 2007
1. Sound of Silver, LCD Soundsystem
2. Andorra, Caribou
3. For Emma, Forever Ago, Bon Iver
4. The Flying Club Cup, Beirut
5. The Shepherd’s Dog, Iron and Wine
6. Kala, M.I.A.
7. In Our Bedroom After the War, Stars
8. Challengers, the New Pornographers
9. The Con, Tegan and Sara
10. Back to Black, Amy Winehouse
11. Under the Blacklight, Rilo Kiley

I really have no justification for posting this other than the fact that it made me chuckle. Essentially a few Christian sects run a church in Bethlehem and occasionally bust out into minor scuffles. Fun stuff.