My Past Through Tomorrow #4–September 10, 2017
News, as projected onto iTacts, delivered by EdandBill.com:
Washington, DC–(RealWest.com) Speaking at the Federal Reserve, President Jeb Bush agreed that the increase of the Prime Rate from 12.75 to 13% is necessary to bring down the current inflation rate from 14%. Democratic, Nativist and Successionist critics countered that the 8% unemployment rate is much more important than inflationary pressures and that this action will only make the American economy worse. “Things cannot actually be that bad,” the President added, “if the median net worth of American households continues to outpace inflation by two percent.” Radical activist Joey Bibuka (head of the Black Watch) countered by saying, “The President is a total noob as far as understanding the new economy goes. The value’s going up because the citizens are making the stuff themselves and not letting the government tax it.“
Urbana, Illinois–(Daily Illini) For the first time, the number of undergraduates enrolled at the University this fall in the Global Campus exceeded those enrolled in Meatspace. Out of the current class of 2022, 31,000 of the 60,000 are attending classes in Vir. The University Board of Trustees once again voted, during their September meeting, to retain ownership of Lincoln and Gregory Halls, rather than selling them to developers. “The historic nature of those buildings preclude divestment, no matter the cost of renovation.” Critics charge that the University is attempting to hold out for a higher bid than the one received and that if it doesn’t need classrooms or offices, the BoT should begin removing the oldest first.
Seattle, Washington–(Gamespy.com) Over 450 million individuals owe their primary allegiance to non-governmental associations at present, a Netpoll taken today revealed. The growth of NGAs has skyrocketed with 24/7 connectivity reaching four billion people in all corners of the planet. The largest, the ten-year-old World of Warcraft Guilds Association, with its 16 million members, currently has the fourth-largest Gross Domestic Product of any group or nation in the world, with assets spread over Vir, Meat and Outer Spaces.
West Lafayette, Indiana–(TheExponent.com) The Indiana National Guard began the eighth day of its seige of the AIChE-SA (American Institute of Chemical Engineers–Student Affiliates) house on campus. The standoff began when the members of the Purdue RSO became rowdy at a tailgate and has escalated since. When Campus Police attempted to arrest the revelers, the young engineers melted their police cars and weapons with the mining bacteria that the house had created for their ChemE 499 project. The National Guard has maintained a perimeter of one block around the students’ house, and have denied that they have already lost one armored vehicle to the bioweapon. Governor Radcliffe has offered the students amnesty with regard to their destruction of private property and resisting arrest charges, as well as rescinding their University expulsion in exchange for the state receiving the rights to their creations.
Austin, TX–(NewRepublic.com) Legislators in the Texas House of Representatives have once again called for the secession of Texas and the reestablishment of the old Republic of Texas with its original borders. They join Californians and the Free State group in New Hampshire in this call. Elias Dominguez, Speaker of the Texas House said to reporters, “It is insane that the entitlement mandates that we pay to our citizenry and are required by the Federal government exceeded our total tax receipts by 5% last quarter. It is literally impossible for those who are still working to pay any longer for these services.” President Bush commented from the White House that, “I thought we solved that there matter 150 years ago.”
Houston, TX–(AP) Scientists at NASA announced today that by reexamining the Infra-red data from the New Horizons spacecraft, they have discovered that Pluto is covered by a thin layer of amino acids. The robot spacecraft, which flew by the dwarf planet and its moons two years ago, is continuing to send data from the nearby portions of the Kuiper Belt. The experts stated that this provides evidence that the basic building blocks of life formed naturally during the evolution of the solar system, then rained down on the new planets when comets impacted during the Early Bombardment.
–Tom (Chronage 65, Bioage 55)
Comment by Anonymous on 10 September 2007 at 6:32 am:
please explain the 2 ages…
Comment by tet on 10 September 2007 at 8:09 am:
Chron age is the term for a person’s birth age, in my case, I was born in 1952. Bioage is a measure of how old the person’s body seems to be physically, as compared to a government standards. By 2017, for those who can afford it, biotech has begun to remove some of the problems that we currently associate with aging–Altzeimer’s, high-blood pressure, heart difficulties, emphysema, and so forth. I’ve invented neologisms to cover the terms for the two separate categories.
I’ve also introduced a additional pair in the text. By 2017, the experiential world is beginning to split into three, with what we now consider the “real world” as a service industry for the other two.
Vir is both an adjective and a noun and refers to the world of the ‘Net and its descendants. It is available by people all over most of the continents, and can either be accessed completely through a computer or visible as an overlay on the real world.
Meat is a term coined by the post-Millenial generation, who are, in 2017, teenagers or younger. It refers to the concrete, material world which requires physical tools to be manipulated, in contrast with Virspace, which can be altered with a thought, word or blink. It is an adjective and noun also, as well as an insult used for those without body modification or 24/7 everywhere connectivity.
The third world is Outer Space, which will become more and more important as venture capitalists move off planet. More on this tomorrow and Wednesday.
Noob is a current gaming term for someone who is willfully ignorant. I expect, as Virspace becomes more and more important, that gaming and geek terms will come into common, or even formal usage.
[This is similar to how "you suck" went from being an obscenity or deadly insult in 1965 to being a commonly used term today, even in the NY Times.]
Tom
Comment by Hanno on 10 September 2007 at 9:10 am:
Keep dreaming Tom. Bio modification will face stiff resistance from the religious establishment because it tampers with the gifts of the gods. It would take much longer than ten years to gain widespread acceptance. Now if we’re talking VR glasses and such, sure. If we’re talking GATTACA style genetic modification, no. So your neo-weapons would make everyone a bio terrorist? Fantastic! Sign me up for some bug to burrow into the brains of all those in Vir.
When I read these posts, some of it is fascinating, some of it looks like a movie from the 1950s that envisions humans with colonies on Mars by the year 2000. If your future developed we’d have a shitload of problems that would probably overwhelm all the advances. World population would explode if we could increase human lifespan by even another ten to twenty years. We’d have a whole class of elderly to take care of because eventually they’d break down. Not only that, we’d have a truly two-tier society with those who could afford enhancements and to be in Vir at the top in affluence and those who couldn’t well…not.
Basically you’re telling us we’re on our way to entering the Matrix and we should all be ecstatic. If not to the Matrix, to a world of “The Machine Stops.” We’d all be weak, useless fops living in our imaginary world until the shit hits the fan, then the outcasts would have the last laugh. We’d have a time machine society with the weak Vir folk and the Morlocks eating them haha. That’d be funny.
Not only would the world be screwy, it would be the most economically unequal society in history. Those with access to your virtual goods (which I still insist will be a small minority because the vast majority of people think that’s just plain silly, at least for now) and those who do not. If the wealth being generated in cyberspace is anything like what you think, we’d see an entire new class of people with wealth truly begetting wealth because the earliest adopters would probably have the most power because of experience and they’d create their own governmental structures – most likely undemocratic and even oppressive within Vir. You see a world of infinite possibility, I see the ultimate in dystopian futures.
Add to all that the required energy and man is our planet fucked. I know you talk to me about the number of actual humans decreasing etc, but that sure as hell won’t happen in the next ten years. Even optimistic projections show global population flattening out around 2050 so with increased longevity, we won’t have 10 billion, but maybe 12 or 15. And throughout it all the gods shall laugh at human arrogance…
Comment by J. Prescott on 10 September 2007 at 9:12 am:
Tom -
Evidently, Bibuka is the economic noob. As well as every single person in the future. Because if the prime interest rate was less than the interest rate, the Fed would not be considering raising the rate. Because they would be bankrupt. Because banks, not being idiots, could borrow money at a rate lower than the time value of money. So they would borrow so much money as to be sick, and then loan it out at a real rate that is higher than inflation, and make money out of the deal. There would literally be a run on the bank, and there would be more money out in the system, hyperinflating the dollar even more, which would in turn cause all currencies tied to the Dollar would inflate. And I would say to Bibuka that people aren’t making the stuff themselves because they want to avoid taxes and generate wealth, but rather it is because the US turned into the economic equivalent of 1920s Germany, where deutchemarks are only good for wall paper.
Which leads me to what exactly are these guys making? If they are just growing their own food, and doing a little bartering, well thats not a big deal. Thats called imputed income, and the United States has never taxed it ever. If they are producing stuff in virspace, as you call it, well, the government is not going to care if you barter 1200 pieces of virgold for a Sword of a 1000 truths, because…well the probably just won’t, and they won’t know how to convert 1200 pieces of virgold to dollars. If they are doing something serious, like exchanging services…well people have been doing that for year with service exchange organizations. Sometimes they get away with it. Sometimes they don’t. Its a risk and you roll the dice, but its not new.
And as for economic concerns being a basis for succession, well it seems that noobishness has spread to the state house. In 2004, for every $1.00 spent in federal taxes by Texas, $0.94 went back to Texas in the form of federal funding. So the whole “what about our state tax receipts,” is not that big of a deal, because Texas does not operate solely on its state taxes. As for $.06 that they don’t get back, in exchange they get to fall under the U.S. defensive aegis, their major waterways are policed by the United States Coast Guard get federal highways maintained, and are part of a stronger economic system which allows them to be at a more significant bargaining position on the national stage. They back out, they pay for all those things, but it will cost them a lot more than $0.06 on the dollar. California ($0.79) and New Hampshire ($0.67) have more room to complain, but they get all the other benefits of Texas and, I would still think it is a bargain for all of that.
And unemployment. Why is it so high? I know technology is going to take off some of the burden, but the working population will be in stiff decline. China, which is one of the most populous country in the world is going to have too many jobs and not enough workers. The U.S., with its workforce in decline, although not in as steep of fall, will not enough jobs for the workers? How does that work?
As for not attending school in meat space. What about the college experience? You can’t hit up a kegger online. Nor can you find out from personal experience that greek life is not for you. All of the crazy college stories cannot be replaced by a variation of “One time, in the ninth level of Krull’s dungeon.” It seems to me that technology, as you suggest it to be used, poses a serious threat to individual’s social development. Wouldn’t parents, who went to college, push for their kids to go so long as they can afford it? Are you suggesting parents will be unable to afford it in the future?
As for you Guild formation. They are the 4th largest GDP block, and there are only 16 million of them. So, somehow, 16 million are going to withstand the drive of 7 billion others in attempting to redistribute wealth in a more equitable way. How?
Other than that, I don’t have enough science background to question.
Comment by tet on 10 September 2007 at 9:43 am:
Ok, Hanno is starting to see the implications of all of this. It is good that you are afraid, dude, it means that you get it. Each of the problems that you’re describing has to be solved for the human race to survive. Better get started working on it early.
Prescott, you caught an error on my part on the prime versus the inflation rate. The values were supposed to be the same as in 1979, I corrected them now.
At present, nation states and their money are largely a creation of the myths of their existence. What I am positing is virtual reality that “feels” so close to the real thing as to be nearly indistinguishable and the acceptance of materials inside it as liquid and not fungible.
As a present-day example, there is a woman in Germany who is Second Life’s premier landlady. She hired a group of Chinese gold-farmers to design subdivisions and furnish them for people to live in while they’re in World. She had a $3 million profit last year. There is some question as to whether or not it is taxable.
There is also a question of intellectual property rights. There is a generational difference in the consideration of who owns an idea. Those who were born prior to 1982 or so accept that creators have the right to their ideas. Those after see no problem with dissemination, free, of any new materials created (see YouTube and streaming music download sites for details.)
This is going to be the major legal battles of the early 21st century.
How did the WoW people get so much money and power? They’re early adopters of the new tech–see all of Hanno’s last comments. They’re on their way to becoming the rulers of the world for a short time.
The high unemployment figures mostly result from the damage done by the wage and price controls Hillary instituted following the Middle Eastern atomic war. I am also positing, in parallel, a huge underground economy in goods and services that will contribute to the demise of the United States. The closest parallel I can think of is the situation during the Carter administration, where we had a misery index of 22 in 1979.
You’ve got me beat on the Texas figures–I bow to your superior reseach in this case, although the numbers contributed by the Federal Government could change quickly as it adjusts to more and more baby boomers that just won’t fucking die. I do expect that Texas will be one of the first states to secede during the breakup, since it has a history of independence. Feel free to substitute your own reasons if my pitiful economics bother you. [Oh, and considering how insecure the borders are right now, ask a Texan how they feel about being under the aegis of the Federal Government. Be prepared for an earful.]
As far as wanting keggers? If the Vir is better than reality, why the hell would you want to attend in person. If you can go to the Frat parties and see the entire room from any angle that you wish, and interact with three girls at once (including having text-sex with one of them) why would anyone want to be handicapped by being Meat? Even the primative flat-panel Vir we have now is exciting enough that 50 million people are spending their free time there.
Tom
Comment by tet on 10 September 2007 at 9:51 am:
One addenda:
Even though the MMORG (Vir-world) population is only about 50 million at the moment, the number of people who actually play games online (like Poker, for example) comes to more like 200 million at present total.
Tom
Comment by J. Prescott on 10 September 2007 at 10:32 am:
Tom -
Alright, I am going to step away from the economic and speak to the intrinsic of this system you are proposing will evolve.
First off, I think the people that know me in real life will stipulate that I am extremely prudish and generally avoid the over-the-top social experiences I alluded to in the frat parties. That being said, to quote Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell, “ain’t nothing like the real thing.” You posted about how you can get a better visual view of the bar and text three girls. Thats all fine and good, and maybe its because I am not anticipating the intensity of this technology, but I just can’t see how that will be better than the real thing. Yeah, I can see girls better online maybe, but is it can recapture the nervousness one feels when they approach a girl for the first time? The nervous laughter? The need to scratch the back of your head? The sensation of dancing with that girl for the first time? Your mind frantically racing, figuring out what you want to do next?
Or even when you are just hanging out with your friends in the same “meatspace.” Drinking beers with them, playing some beirut. Gettin into bars, goofin’ off, talking the bouncer out of throwing one of them out. I mean, is this stupid stuff? Yeah. But its the type of stuff that helps you figure out who you are and what you are about. I just don’t see how a technology can replace that.
Comment by Hanno on 10 September 2007 at 11:26 am:
It’s totally true. No matter how wonderful VR may be, you still don’t get the front back side to side action. I mean I suppose you could meet people in VR then meet up and have geek love, but it would have disastrous consequences…
Comment by tet on 10 September 2007 at 11:33 am:
Sometime, I want to invite you to a dinner with people who are currently spending over half of their spare time in Vir. The next Kittencon might be the ideal place for this. I believe that once you have conversed with them, you’ll come to understand that they do the kinds of things they do there because it is better than any experiences that they’ve had in Realspace.
You might say that that’s pathetic, but then you’d have to explain why someone paying to see a movie or read a book to induce a different state of mind than day-to-day reality would not be as bad.
It is a mistake, I think, to regard humanity as an economic animal. We are, from our very first ancestors, a social animal. The kind of economies that we have evolved during each of our previous civilizations have been dependent on the kind of resources that we’ve had available and the social methods of distributing them. Humans have an annoying way of acting in ways that are directly counter to their economic best interest when social interests are competing.
With the ten years between 2017 and 2027, I am going to be entering a period where it is going to be increasingly difficult to either predict accurately or even fully describe its nature. I am planning on taking some liberties and enjoy myself. What I write about perhaps is not going to happen. However, I will wager that what does happen is more unbelievable than what I describe.
A note to Hanno:
I find it amusing that you’re comparing this to a writer from 1950 talking about Mars colonies in 2000. Heinlein, of course, is one of those (as well as the more lyrical Bradbury) and got that wrong, as he did quite a number of other things.
I would point out the things that he did get right, specifically little things like the FAX machine, antipodal flights, the water bed, and the spontaneous collapse of the Soviet Union. He also predicted the stalemate that Mutually Assured Destruction would cause and the Free Love movement (although it could be argued that he created that himself.)
I should be so lucky as to do as well with my stuff.
Coming tomorrow–Ron Paul becomes America’s Mikhail Gorbachev and I get a new kitten.
Tom
Comment by tet on 10 September 2007 at 11:35 am:
In reply to Hanno at 12:26:
My son and daughter-in-law met in Virspace on a MUD (Multiplayer User Dimension) in textspace. He was in the Army at Ft. Campbell, she in the Yukon.
They’re coming up on their fifth wedding anniversary. I may need to ask Ann-Marie, but last I heard, the meetup wasn’t a disaster.
Tom
Comment by J. Prescott on 10 September 2007 at 11:54 am:
Tom -
I just wanted to quickly clarify that I did not seek to classify that type of lifestyle as geeky. Its not for me, I don’t think, but different strokes and different folks. And while I am not the average joe, I was just speaking as to whether I thought it might be appealable to everyone, based solely on my experiences. I could be wrong.
Comment by Hanno on 10 September 2007 at 12:04 pm:
The disastrous consequences would be reproducing geeklings :-D It was a joke Tom.
Comment by tet on 10 September 2007 at 12:16 pm:
You wouldn’t think it was a joke if you met my five grandchildren, Hanno. They’re the third generation in our gamer-breeding experiment.
Bwah-ha-ha.
Tom
Comment by Anonymous on 11 September 2007 at 9:14 pm:
My kids are NOT geeks. They are no more subversive nor weird than any of their general age groups.
I will admit they read at higher levels and have really perverse senses of humor, but that’s more to do with parentage than gamerism.
Spend any time around my husband’s brother and you will see they get their humor fair and square. I only keep the books I will read more than once, or I’d have more than your entire household.
I know you like to make a big joke sometmes, but I take pride in what I am doing.
The ‘Dotta’
Comment by tet on 12 September 2007 at 10:32 am:
Ah, my granchildren are the most beautiful creatures on earth, and are very successful by any standards. They will be, however, geeks. In ten years, you will admit this to me.
One of them is in MPTT#6, as a matter of fact, which I posted today.
Comment by Syl on 13 September 2007 at 3:50 pm:
As far Hanno’s comments about virtual dystopias: Guilds are not governments and do not behave like governments. All attempts at analogy fail, because the movement of players through virtual space is not analogous to the movement of individuals through real life communities.
Most guilds are not democracies, but that’s not because of any tyrannical ambitions on the part of guild founders. Democracies simply do not work well in the game environment. But, although most guilds are not democracies, that does not mean that they use purely nondemocratic processes; and it certainly does not mean that they are oppressive. Oppression cannot exist in a world of nearly limitless choice. The lifespan of a truly oppressive guild can be measured in days or weeks.
I can type a brief phrase and leave my guild. If I don’t feel like communicating with anyone still in it, I can put their characters on my ignore list. I could pay a small fee and have my character moved to a new server and re-named, so that I could avoid my guild entirely, and continue to enjoy my investment in my character. If I feel like writing my own rules and having my own guild, I can pay a trivial amount of in-game money to set one up. I could pay around $50 per month or less to set up the out-of-game utilities necessary to run a large-scale guild, if I felt so inclined.
There are virtually no costs associated with my relocation. And my decision– and my move– can be accomplished in an eyeblink, with few if any repercussions.