My Past Through Tomorrow #2–November 5, 2008
News, as read from a computer screen delivered by Tom’sNewsFeed, powered by Google:
Washington, DC–(AP) Mitt Romney called Clinton/Obama headquarters at 2:17 this morning to congatulate President-elect Clinton on her victory when it became obvious that no matter who received the Texas electoral votes, the victory belonged to the Democratic candidate. If Texas goes for the Republicans, as expected, the final tally will be 456-82, with the Romney-Thompson ticket carrying only the Central Mountain states, the Gulf minus Louisiana and Tennessee. Most of the House and Senate races were not even close, with the Democratic Party picking up 12 Senate seats as well as 30 in the House of Representatives. Hillary, accompanied on the podium by a smiling Bill Clinton, pledged “peace with honor” in Iraq in a speech eerily echoing Richard Nixon.
Charleston, WV–(Salon.com) Salon sent correspondents to this Appalachian college town to attempt to make some sense of the watershed results of yesterday’s election. The exit polls had predicted a much closer race, and the National Election Pool, the company used by the major news organizations, is pledging a revamp of its techniques and statistical methods to improve its accuracy. Interviews found interesting trends, however, that could explain the reasons for the Republican rout. In front of his Baptist Church, Harry MacArthur made a wide arc in the air before him and said, “Nobody from this church voted yesterday, out of protest. How dare the elites in New York and Hollywood present us with two liberal candidates. It was an insult to true Americans.” Near the football stadium, two African-Amercian students, bundled against the stiff north wind, smiled and gave each other high-fives, “It was about time that something shook up the country. We couldn’t stand Hillary, but Obama strikes me as the way of the future, and there was no way he could have gotten elected directly, being a black man.” Randy Wilcox, in a trailer-park on the edge of town represented the protest vote,” Had the Republicans nominated Ron Paul, rather than some guy from Massachusetts, they might have had a chance. The entire system is corrupt. I voted for Clinton, figuring that she’s going to screw things up so badly, that the country will be ripe for revolution by the time that she’s done. Just wait, people get the kind of government that they deserve.”
Meyrin, Switzerland–(Reuters) Director Robert Aymar announced that the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN had found signals indicating the existence of the Higgs Boson, one of the key missing elements of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. The mass is expected to be around 140 Gev, but more exact figures await the collection of years of data.
Seattle, WA–(Gamespy.com) Jeremy Dunham, Gamespot’s Managing Editor called 2008 the Golden Age of Gaming. “Thousands of technophiles have upgraded their computers to play Bioshock, Age of Conan or Fallout 3. Our reviewers have declared, after seeing the new generation of hardware acceleration, that the games on our screens actually look ‘better than reality.’” Chip manufacturers worldwide are recycling their new share of profits into R&D in an attempt to keep up with designers in an ever-widening spiral as gamers demand more and more for their money.
Edinburgh, Scotland–(Reuters) The Royal College of Surgeons announced that it had succeeded in creating the first human/animal hybrid embryos. These embryos are planned to be used to provide stem cells for specific diseases, then destroyed. A spokesman said that there are no plans to allow any to develop to viability. Harold Walton of the Ministry of Defense mentioned in an aside in a press conference later that there may be the possibility of their use to improve the senses of British soldiers currently on station in Afganistan to enhance their safety in the field. Pope Benedict, speaking from the Vatican, condemned the advance, calling it a “perversion of the gifts of God.”
London, England–(Reuters) The head of the Ministry of Health announced that to ensure enough availability for the healthy in Great Britain, health care would be curtailed or denied to those Britons who insisted in pursuing unhealthy lifestyles. “The system, at the point of collapse, can no longer afford”, he said, “to take care of those who smoke a pack of cigarettes a day, eat fast food for lunch and then go to the pub all evening.” Seven protesters were arrested outside of Eston Hall where he made the speech. President-elect Clinton, when asked if her proposals for health coverage would have similar restrictions, said that she would, “watch the experiences of the British and Canadian health systems closely.”
London, England–(AP) Amnesty Internation accused the Chinese government of imprisoning tens of thousands of political dissidents and Christian activists during the 2008 Olympic games this past summer. The Chinese government denied that such prisoners even existed, challenging the international organization to produce one photo of a prisoner presently being held for those reasons.
Chicago, Illinois–(AP) Today’s election issue will be the last one for the Chicago Sun-Times. The city’s oldest newspaper, published continuously since 1844 (when it was incorporated as the Chicago Evening Journal) could no longer, in the words of its publisher, “compete with the free cost and ubiquity of internet news.” The newspaper, home to such award-winning writers as Roger Ebert and Mike Royko, had been suffering decreasing revenues since it raised its cover price by 50 percent in the summer of 2007.
Tom (age 56)
Comment by Aug on 8 September 2007 at 3:19 pm:
Very interesting predictions Tom. I could see the predictions regarding the newspaper folding and the embryo in say, 5 years, but not 1 year. Creative stuff, I’m enjoying it. I think the Chinese prediction is most spot on.
No way Hillary would pick Obama, who would upstage her w/ his bountiful charisma.
I do think Romney-Thompson could happen, but strangely I could see Thompson turning the VP spot down…
Comment by Hanno on 8 September 2007 at 3:40 pm:
Your predictions are starting to sound a lot more like what you’d like the future to look like than a careful assessment of probabilities and weighing of likelihoods.
Hillary will probably take the Dem nomination, no surprise there. The Republican nomination is still up in the air, but Romney’s not a bad choice. But a landslide like you predict? I highly doubt it. I think the Republicans will show amazing resiliance in 08. This will be particularly true if they manage to split California’s electoral votes with the ill-conceived plebiscite that’s going to the voters this year. In fact, California’s split vote could even ruin the election for the Dems if it passes because a huge chunk of the state would swing Republican (particularly orange county, the inland empire, and the central valley).
Keep dreaming on the Paul style government Tom. Governments have grown in power and scope inexorably over time until complete or near-complete collapse. I don’t foresee this trend reversing THAT rapidly.
I also doubt that Britain’s (or any other state healthcare system) will collapse that fast. It’ll take a decade or so, but may happen unless restrictions are imposed.
The China thing I totally see. The rest I either don’t know enough about or don’t feel strongly enough about to argue with you on. Hugs!
Comment by Allan Niemerg on 8 September 2007 at 6:26 pm:
I find these predictions more plausible that the first ones. But I suspect that this about as far out as one can predict with this level of particularity and hope to succeed.
One thing though, haven’t human/animal chimeras already been created? I know for a fact that scientists have already grown mice that have human brain cells. I believe that qualifies as a chimera.
Comment by tet on 8 September 2007 at 6:28 pm:
Augur, I’m using the Sun-Times as an example, representing most newspapers. It did raise its cover price this past summer even though its advertising revenues exceed the Chicago Tribune. I give each of them a 50/50 shot of surviving the decade.
Hillary will pick Obama for his charisma, which will more or less seal up the victory in November. Thompson could very well turn down the VP spot, but it seems ideal for him–back in the Senate with no real duties, get a decent salary, prestige and can sleep late.
The hybrid embryo is from a newspaper story in the last month, they predicted six months, I decided to be conservative.
Hanno, I fooled you. The British health care announcement was (more or less) from last week, not from next year. It’s real. The current plan is to issue people with healthy lifestyles “special credit” cards which will enable them to “cut in line” ahead of the reprobates. The system is already in that much trouble, with waits of as long as eighteen months for essential services. The cut off of services completely is a threat at the present time, but I figure it’s got a 100% probability of being fulfilled in the next year.
As far as wishful thinking goes, I see only two possible futures as a reaction to the ubiquity of information availability–either the complete collapse of the United States or its evolution into a brutal dictatorship. Which future I will pick is still up in the air, see what you think after reading the results of the first term of the Clinton presidency in my next installment.
You are vastly underestimating the fury out here in flyover country over what is seen as a betrayal of Republican principles by the Bush administration and Congress. I actually think that I’m being very conservative in my estimates of the Democratic landslide of 2008. It could very well take the better part of a decade for the Republicans to recover from it.
Coming tomorrow: 2012, Egg Rolls with salsa, and UofI student gets hit by bus.
Tom
Comment by tet on 8 September 2007 at 6:34 pm:
Allan, the mice were chimeras in that they had a small number of brain cells that were uniquely human. The cells that they’re talking about working on in Scotland right now will be about 50/50, as far as I can tell.
There’s probably a scale length on these predictions, in which x years distance halves the liklihood of it being correct. I feel pretty confident in these so far. With the next one being a jump of five years, I’m have had to look at long term trends and attempt to extrapolate from the past five or ten.
While you’re reading these, try going back in your mind six months to a year and examine the headlines of today and see how much sense they make. This has been a very interesting exercise for me. I will admit that I’ve had a lot of fun, too, especially with the post-2025 predictions.
Tom
Comment by tet on 8 September 2007 at 8:57 pm:
Oh, Hanno, as far as a modern state collapsing into separate entities in a matter of months?
Does the fall of the Soviet Union count? It was peaceful (for the most part) and it separated into, what, sixteen different nations?
What makes you think the US is immune to that, the blessing of God? Don’t give me this inexorable crap.
Tom
Comment by Augur on 8 September 2007 at 9:17 pm:
Tom – I just want to say you’re doing a great job. And we are being nit picky punks in the comments, thanks for your spirited back and forth here.
Comment by J. Prescott on 8 September 2007 at 11:08 pm:
Tom -
I doubt Hanno would believe anything by the grace of God, what with him being an atheist and all.
The USSR example is poor to justify the toppling of a country in a few months…the satellite states and the revolutions of 1989 would have been better. The reasons that it appeared that the Soviet state fell as a surprise to the United States and the western world because we vastly underestimated the politburo’s desire to lie to themselves. You look at the economic figures in the decade or so leading up to the collapse, and it is not hard to understand how or why the Soviet Union fell. Compound that with Gorbachev’s hail mary’s in 1985, and you can start seeing very public indications that the USSR is SOL 6 years prior to their eventual fall late in 1991.
And even for the 1989 Revolution countries, the surprise factor was not that big. Communism was never really a choice for those countries…it was forced upon them by a stronger neighbor. Once that neighbor declined in power, the communist systems in the satellite states were going to collapse under their own weight.
And speaking toward the “inevitability of revolution,” well nothing is inevitable. There could be a revolution in the United States. I could also find a pair of Bears season tickets on the sidewalk tomorrow. But I am not going to bet on it.
For a revolution to occur, you need three things: severe economic fluctuation, a homogonized, unified significant minority that is unfairly burdened by the current system, and a specific target thats not just the general “the government.” You have identified none of these factors. For the economic fluctuation, it would have to a perfect storm comparable to the great depression, which in many ways was helped along by a world war, a shitty peace, and some crappy weather. I have no delusions of grandeur when it comes to the American economy: its good, real good, but its not a mandate from heaven. But to overthrow the American government you would have to have an economic failure of Biblical proportions, which I just don’t see in the cards. I see drops, dips, and recessions. But no God Almighty Depressions.
As for the group, you have yet to identify a group large enough and dedicated enough to do anything like you are suggesting. There are plenty of people who are tacitly upset with the government. But there are nowhere near enough people who are willing to do anything about it. Poland had Solidarity. The USSR had the SFSR. Whats the United States equivalent?
Comment by tet on 9 September 2007 at 10:49 am:
Good thoughts, Prescott. In the past, because of limitations of time, energy, communication and money, it’s taken a large disaffected group to overthrow the government.
What happens if every middle-class or wealthier individual finds themselves with the means to do so, by themselves?
What held the Warsaw Pact together was the myth of Soviet economic dominance and military power in the form of occupying troops. When both of those became exposed as ineffectual, the Pact split apart as did the USSR a couple of years later.
The US is built upon the myth of the Union and, being based upon capitalist economics, that it to each state’s advantage to be part of the republic. What happens if the myth is shattered at the same time that individual states find that it is vastly in their financial best interest to leave the Union? Keep in mind, too, that there are quite a few Southrons who still believe that secession is 140 years overdue.
The economics of the 21st century are completely different than any time earlier, since it is possible to sell information and keep a copy at the same time. This makes information a lot more like cows than aluminum. All economic theories are based upon scarcity of resources. If the scarcity vanishes overnight, all bets are off.
Out of respect for your well-written new article, I’m going to place today’s installment below it, so that if readers come over to read mine, they’ll see yours first.
Tom