Archive for April, 2007

The world is buzzing this week about what could be called the most important discovery of the decade in astrophysics–the discovery of a planet within the habitable zone of a red dwarf star, Gliese 581. I want to talk about this and explain why it is truly important for our understanding of our role in the universe as human beings.

Let’s start, first of all, with one of my favorite physicists, Enrico Fermi. I’ve heard a lot about him over the years, especially since the head of High-Energy Physics at the university when I began as a contractor was his graduate student on the Chicago Pile Project, Al Wattenburg. Fermi was an amazing man without whom the Manhattan Project probably would not have succeeded. He’s currently best known among astronomers, though, for a characteristic way of thinking and the question that came from it.

Fermi was the king of the back-of-the-envelope calculation. He used to ask questions in his courses like, “Calculate the number of grains of sand on all of the beaches of Earth.” These came to be known as “Fermi Questions.”

Although it seems far-fetched, it is possible to solve Fermi Questions to about an order of magnitude or so by making some logical assumptions. To solve the one above, you need an order of magnitude approximation of the following items: the volume of a grain of sand, the packing efficiency of sand grains on sand beaches, the length of all the coastlines of the planet, the percentage of such coastlines with sand beaches and the average width and depth of the sand on those beaches. I’ll leave it to you engineers out in the reading audience to come up with an answer to the question if you want a break from your study for finals. Here’s a few more.

Fermi used assumptions like this to calculate the yield of the Trinity A-bomb. He stood at a safe distance with his back to the tower. When he saw the flash, he opened his hand and allowed small pieces of paper to fall from them. By the distance that they were tossed by the shockwave, he was able to calculate the power of the weapon.

He also used this method to calculate, over lunch with his graduate students, that it would take an average of 100 million years to colonize the galaxy using self-replicating machines if they could not go faster than light. This led to the famous Fermi paradox, “if this is so, there should have been 45 alien civilizations colonizing our planet by now–where are they?”

Now, we move forward about ten years to Green Bank Radio observatory, where scientists are listening for intelligent signals from alien civilizations. An astrophysicist came up with a Fermi-type question: “How many civilizations are there in the Milky Way Galaxy with whom we can communicate?” The Fermi solution to this became known as the Drake Equation.

Over the years, information has been plugged into it, getting estimates of anywhere from 10,000 to .0000001, depending on the assumptions going into it. A range this wide in a Fermi solution means that there’s not enough knowledge to make a good guess, since a Fermi solution should be reasonable within only a factor of 10 either way.

[I want to take a moment and mention that the Drake Equation is not a scientific hypothesis. A hypothesis must be verifiable by experimentation. Since that is impossible, it falls closer to a philosophical concept than a hypothesis. Michael Crichton pointed this out years ago.]

Now we get to the center of the relevance of Gliese 581c. Until this past week, we knew of exactly four rocky worlds within the habitable zone of a star at present–Venus, Earth, the Moon and Mars (with one more, Titan, that would be at the right temperature after the Sun became a Red Giant). There was absolutely no way to tell whether or not there was something completely unique that prevented such worlds from occuring in other systems.

There were many theorists that believed just that–that gas giants spiralled into their sun destroying rocky planets as they go unless something truly unusual (like the resonances in our solar system) prevented it. There were a lot of Hot Jupiters orbiting very close to their suns that seemed to endorse this view.

Gliese 581c has a typical mass for a rocky world at 5 Earth masses (abbreviated Me henceforth.) The transition between a rocky world like Earth and a gas giant is theorized to be about 10 Mes.

It also gives a new number to plug into the Fermi Question. We had not, until now, had any example of a small planet within the habitable zone of a different star. Now we do and it’s close–only about 20.5 light-years away. I did a quick calculation yesterday and if we assume that this distance is typical (a valid assumption because even though such planets could be more rare, we have a very low sampling rate within the solar neighborhood) I come up with a total estimate of 300 million rocky planets within the habitable zone of their stars outside the central third of the galaxy where the radiation from the core’s black hole and the high frequency of supernovae would be problematic.

This new planet is important because it is circling a Red Dwarf Star. Such stars have not been targets of examination in the past because they were not seen as likely candidates for life. There are billions of them in the galaxy–80% of the stellar population are Red Dwarfs. One characteristic of such stars is their extremely long lifetimes compared to other stars. Earth will have probably 5.5 billion years total in which water-based life is possible on its surface at its present distance before stellar evolution heats it beyone the boiling point of water. Gliese 581c, with a mass half that of the Sun has 5 or 6 times as long in which life could develop. In other words, we on Earth have perhaps a billion years of viabilty remaining as an ecosphere. Our equals on 581c would have over 26 billion years left for the life lottery.

Lastly, it has a Hot Jupiter inside its orbit. This means either that Hot Jupiters do not necessarily destroy rocky planets outside of their orbits as they spiral inward or that they are formed where they are currently found and do not spiral in at all.

Now, a cautionary note before we get too excited. Red Dwarfs are very different from our sun. They are cooler and dimmer and their spectrum has much less Ultraviolet light, which forms a protective ozone layer above our planet and Gliese 581 (man, we need a better name for this star and its planets now that it’s important, it’s too damn long to type each time) is what is called a “flare star.” These stars have a tendency to have much larger versions of the solar flares that our sun exhibits. Therefore, the sunward side of the planet would have a much higher dose of X-Rays than our world receives.

Why is the discovery of this new world important in a philosophical sense? Our estimated number for possible other races and civilizations has just gotten a lot larger. This reopens the Fermi Paradox for consideration, since it is proportionally more surprising that we have no evidence of other races having reached our solar system.

I’m going to have a bit of fun here at the end. I’m going to examine the parameters of the system and see if I can describe a habitable world there and what one would experience as one of its people. I am not implying that any of my conclusions are valid, merely that the science that I am employing is current.

First of all, it is highly likely that the planet is tide-locked to its sun, much as our Moon always has one side facing the Earth. This means that it has a bright-side and a dark-side. (Where’s David Gilmore when you need him?) How high Gliese would stand in the sky would depend on how close you were to the Hot Pole–the point at which the star would be overhead all the time. Gliese would appear to be about seven times larger than our sun does.

I am going to assume that the point where our planet….let’s name it Fredville, for lack of a better name….first formed was similar to where Earth formed in our solar system and that the composition of the molecular cloud was the same. Therefore, it would have a similar amount of water in its rocks and have been hit by a similar number of comets. (See why this is speculation or science-fiction? There’s way too many unknowns.)

Because of the amount of water and minerals, it would have about 70% of its surface covered with water. However, the distribution would be very different from that of the Earth. Because of the tidal effects of being so close to its star, Fredville would have a tendency to have its oceans preferentially located at the sunrise and sunset points of the planet. This would mean that the planet would have a ring of oceans completely around it, with one large continent facing the star and another one on the farside.

It was once assumed that a tide-locked planet would have its atmosphere frozen completely on the dark side. By studying Venus, which has an extremely long rotation, scientists have discovered that the atmosphere of near-locked planet circulates anyway due to differences in temperature. Venus rotates in 243 days, but its atmosphere goes completely around the planet in only 4 days. There are winds blowing off of the hotside near the equator, but the air is returned to that side by opposing prevailing winds at different latitudes. The closer you get to the Hot Pole, the higher the temperature, perhaps reaching as high as a constant 95 degrees Fahrenheit. At the sunset/sunrise lines, it’s comfortable on Fredville, and by the time you get to the Cold Pole in the middle of Farside, you’re down to Antarctic temperatures.

Most important, there’s life on Fredville. The intelligent Freddies evolved from creatures that lived in the Ring Ocean. They breathe oxygen like us, but look a lot different. When life left the ocean and crawled onto the Hotside land, the ones without shells died from the X-radiation with which Gliese regularly bombared the planet. Freddies look a lot like Earth’s hermit crabs, except that their shells are extruded. Babies are kept inside thick manufactured shells until they’ve grown their own carapace. Since the gravity on Fredville is twice that of Earth, things fall faster and it is a lot easier to be injured, so they grow up fast and tough.

On the Farside, there are different kinds of life-forms, but they’re much more primitive due to the lack of energy from the sun. They resemble Earth-like fungi and have limited vision capability. Close to the Cold Pole, there’s no life at all and it’s eternally dark except for the stars, the other planets of the system and an occasional aurora near the magnetic poles.

The Freddies have explored their planet and discovered the stars when they crossed the Ring Ocean four hundred years ago. Now that they’ve discovered astronomy, chemistry and physics they look up at the sky at the sunset line and wonder, “Is there life out there? If so, where the hell is it?”

Tom

Not to beat a horse until it is well past dead, but Christopher Hitchens today wrote in Slate the best response-to-the-response-to-Virginia-Tech that I have read thus far. I strongly encourage you to read it. It is provocative, honest, as cynical as Hitchens always is, and absolutely correct. An awfully long excerpt to get your attention:

The grisly events at Virginia Tech involved no struggle, no sacrifice, no great principle. They were random and pointless. Those who died were not soldiers in any cause. They were not murdered by our enemies. They were not martyrs. But—just to take one example from the exhausting national sob fest of the past few days—here is how the bells were tolled for them at another national seat of learning. The president of Cornell University, David J. Skorton, ordered the chimes on his campus to be rung 33 times before addressing a memorial gathering. Thirty-three times? Yes. “We are here,” announced the head of an institution of higher learning:

for all of those who are gone, for all 33. We are here for the 32 who have passed from the immediate to another place, not by their own choice. We are also here for the one who has also passed. We are one.

For an academic president to have equated 32 of his fellow humans with their murderer in an orgy of “one-ness” was probably the stupidest thing that happened last week, but not by a very wide margin. Almost everybody in the country seems to have taken this non-event as permission to talk the starkest nonsense. And why not? Since the slaughter raised no real issues, it was a blank slate on which anyone could doodle. Try this, from the eighth straight day of breathless coverage in the New York Times. The person being quoted is the Rev. Susan Verbrugge of Blacksburg Presbyterian Church, addressing her congregation in an attempt, in the silly argot of the day, “to make sense of the senseless”:

Ms. Verbrugge recounted breaking through the previous week’s numbness as she stopped on a morning walk and found herself yelling at the mountains and at God. Though her shouts were initially met with silence, she said, she soon was reassured by the simplest of things, the chirping of birds.

“God was doing something about the world,” she said. “Starting with my own heart, I could see good.”

Yes, it’s always about you, isn’t it? (By the way, I’d watch that habit of yelling at mountains and God in the greater Blacksburg area if I were you. Some idiot might take it for a “warning sign.”) When piffle like this gets respectful treatment from the media, we can guess that it’s not because of the profundity of the emotion but rather because of its extreme shallowness. Those birds were singing just as loudly and just as sweetly when the bullets were finding their targets…

[big snip]

…One should express a decent sympathy for the families and friends of the murdered, a decent sympathy that ought to be accompanied by a decent reticence. Because Virginia Tech—alas for poor humanity—was a calamity with no implications beyond itself.

About a year ago I got flamed by several people and groups with whom I am generally in strong agreement when I wrote that the Danish Muhammad cartoons that caused so much trouble should not have been reprinted in the Daily Illini out of sensitivity to the Muslim community. It was one in a series of events that led to me developing a reputation for being anti-free speech.

In recent days we have all been reeling from the massacre at Virginia Tech. We have also been fascinated and repulsed by the video of the killer that NBC released (and, with the type of cynicism characteristic of a massive media conglomerate, branded with the NBC peacock to force free advertising on other news outlets carrying the video). Spokesmen from NBC, from Nightly News anchor Brian Williams to the president of NBC, have defended the airing of the video as essentially newsworthy, or at least newsworthy enough to air over the objections of police officials and family members of the victims.

The airing of the video is, of course, exactly what Cho wanted. More importantly, the airing of the video and the media bonanza that the Virginia Tech massacre spurred are exactly what future killers will want for themselves. Nothing, of course, will prevent these sorts of events from ever happening again. But it is probable, if not a certainty, that copycat killings will occur as a direct result of the mountain of attention Cho received for his acts.

Consequently, I must live up once again to my reputation and join those arguing that, as a matter of journalistic responsibility, NBC should never have aired Cho’s video. Indeed, it seems sensible even for journalistic outfits, as they report on these tragedies, to not report as little as possible about the killer. Journalists will like to portray the issue as an ethical dilemma, but what really have we gleaned from Cho’s video that can be described as so newsworthy that its airing is worth the future loss of lives and the future anguish of families of victims? What have we gleaned from seeing his face or knowing his name? Why should we give this man a microphone and thereby encourage other psychos to emulate his violence? Is it really worth it?

A List of Those Who Agree With Me (At Billy Joe Mills’ Request)

• Peggy Noonan thinks Billy doesn’t have common sense: “It is only common sense that if a person like Cho leaves a self-aggrandizing, self-celebrating, self-pitying video diary of himself to be played by the mass media, the mass media should not play it and not publicize it, not make it famous. Common sense says that won’t help.”
• Mickey Kaus thinks Billy doesn’t have a brain: “It seems less like an ‘ethical challenge’ than a no-brainer. Why encourage other potential Cho’s to try for a similar publicity bonanza?”
• ABC News thinks Billy’s views are a social catastrophe: “This is a social catastrophe. Showing the video is a social catastrophe.”
• The National Review thinks Billy wants copycat killings: “Surely they know it will spawn copy-cats. So are they showing it because they would rather enjoy copy-cats?”
• The National Review also thinks Billy is sending a bad message: “But NBC News is about to give Cho an audience of around 10 million people for his deranged rantings. What kind of message does this send to other isolated, disturbed and angry youths who entertain the same violent thoughts as Cho?”
• The Huffington Post thinks Billy has no possible explanation for himself: “What is the possible journalistic explanation for splashing Cho’s self-dramatizing poses and self-justifying bullshit over network and cable air?”
• MSNBC thinks Billy is disrespectful: “Airing the video ultimately was disrespectful to the victims and their families. It also was exploitative of Cho’s condition and that of all severely mentally ill people.”
• A guest on Andrew Sullivan’s blog thinks Billy will cause more mass murders: “In the next few weeks and months, even over the next few years, expect to see copycat killings inspired by Cho’s actions. The more saturated the media coverage, the more such events we are likely to get.”
• Our very own Daily Illini thinks Billy has poor judgment: “Better judgment should have been used, especially considering that the images that have been aired cannot possibly be used for a greater understanding of this seriously disturbed individual or the havoc he wrought. What has happened this week has only helped to immortalize this murderer.”

That’s all I’ll list for now, but not because there isn’t a wealth of other people who share my view. Oh, two important groups I forgot: the families of the victims and the police officials involved in the case.

Anything else, Billy?

About a year ago I got flamed by several people and groups with whom I am generally in strong agreement when I wrote that the Danish Muhammad cartoons that caused so much trouble should not have been reprinted in the Daily Illini out of sensitivity to the Muslim community. It was one in a series of events that led to me developing a reputation for being anti-free speech.

In recent days we have all been reeling from the massacre at Virginia Tech. We have also been fascinated and repulsed by the video of the killer that NBC released (and, with the type of cynicism characteristic of a massive media conglomerate, branded with the NBC peacock to force free advertising on other news outlets carrying the video). Spokesmen from NBC, from Nightly News anchor Brian Williams to the president of NBC, have defended the airing of the video as essentially newsworthy, or at least newsworthy enough to air over the objections of police officials and family members of the victims.

The airing of the video is, of course, exactly what Cho wanted. More importantly, the airing of the video and the media bonanza that the Virginia Tech massacre spurred are exactly what future killers will want for themselves. Nothing, of course, will prevent these sorts of events from ever happening again. But it is probable, if not a certainty, that copycat killings will occur as a direct result of the mountain of attention Cho received for his acts.

Consequently, I must live up once again to my reputation and join those arguing that, as a matter of journalistic responsibility, NBC should never have aired Cho’s video. Indeed, it seems sensible even for journalistic outfits, as they report on these tragedies, to not report as little as possible about the killer. Journalists will like to portray the issue as an ethical dilemma, but what really have we gleaned from Cho’s video that can be described as so newsworthy that its airing is worth the future loss of lives and the future anguish of families of victims? What have we gleaned from seeing his face or knowing his name? Why should we give this man a microphone and thereby encourage other psychos to emulate his violence? Is it really worth it?

A List of Those Who Agree With Me (At Billy Joe Mills’ Request)

• Peggy Noonan thinks Billy doesn’t have common sense: “It is only common sense that if a person like Cho leaves a self-aggrandizing, self-celebrating, self-pitying video diary of himself to be played by the mass media, the mass media should not play it and not publicize it, not make it famous. Common sense says that won’t help.”
• Mickey Kaus thinks Billy doesn’t have a brain: “It seems less like an ‘ethical challenge’ than a no-brainer. Why encourage other potential Cho’s to try for a similar publicity bonanza?”
• ABC News thinks Billy’s views are a social catastrophe: “This is a social catastrophe. Showing the video is a social catastrophe.”
• The National Review thinks Billy wants copycat killings: “Surely they know it will spawn copy-cats. So are they showing it because they would rather enjoy copy-cats?”
• The National Review also thinks Billy is sending a bad message: “But NBC News is about to give Cho an audience of around 10 million people for his deranged rantings. What kind of message does this send to other isolated, disturbed and angry youths who entertain the same violent thoughts as Cho?”
• The Huffington Post thinks Billy has no possible explanation for himself: “What is the possible journalistic explanation for splashing Cho’s self-dramatizing poses and self-justifying bullshit over network and cable air?”
• MSNBC thinks Billy is disrespectful: “Airing the video ultimately was disrespectful to the victims and their families. It also was exploitative of Cho’s condition and that of all severely mentally ill people.”
• A guest on Andrew Sullivan’s blog thinks Billy will cause more mass murders: “In the next few weeks and months, even over the next few years, expect to see copycat killings inspired by Cho’s actions. The more saturated the media coverage, the more such events we are likely to get.”
• Our very own Daily Illini thinks Billy has poor judgment: “Better judgment should have been used, especially considering that the images that have been aired cannot possibly be used for a greater understanding of this seriously disturbed individual or the havoc he wrought. What has happened this week has only helped to immortalize this murderer.”

That’s all I’ll list for now, but not because there isn’t a wealth of other people who share my view. Oh, two important groups I forgot: the families of the victims and the police officials involved in the case.

Anything else, Billy?

LBJ is becoming my favorite President a little more every day. Kennedy may have sold us on progressive reform, but Johnson did the heavy lifting. I also miss White House wit. LBJ was hillarious, whether or not he meant to be. I’d like to urge the wikischolars among you to give President Johnson’s memory at least a few minutes worth of research. I was reading a collection of Johnson quotes this morning, and I wanted to share a few with the rest of you:

On Women:
I have learned that only two things are necessary to keep one’s wife happy. First, let her think she’s having her own way. And second, let her have it.

I want to make a policy statement. I am unabashedly in favor of women.

On Loyalty:
I don’t want loyalty. I want loyalty. I want him to kiss my ass in Macy’s window at high noon and tell me it smell like roses. I want his pecker in my pocket. (on hiring a potential assistant)

LBJ’s Political Wisdom:
While you’re saving your face, you’re losing your ass.

You do not examine legislation in the light of the benefits it will convey if properly administered, but in the light of the wrongs it would do and the harms it would cause if improperly administered.

If one morning I walked on top of the water across the Potomac River, the headline that afternoon would read: “President Can’t Swim.”

Jack was out kissing babies while I was out passing bills. Someone had to tend the store.

Jerry Ford is so dumb that he can’t fart and chew gum at the same time.

Why Brenda should love LBJ:
The men who have guided the destiny of the United States have found the strength for their tasks by going to their knees. This private unity of public men and their God is an enduring source of reassurance for the people of America.

LBJ says Tet is doubly worth a damn:
No member of our generation who wasn’t a Communist or a dropout in the thirties is worth a damn.

On the American Spirit:
For this is what America is all about. It is the uncrossed desert and the unclimbed ridge. It is the star that is not reached and the harvest that is sleeping in the unplowed ground.